The 2004 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held on November 2, 2004. Incumbent Senator Russ Feingold won re-election to a third term with more than 55% of the vote against Republican Tim Michels, even as Democrat John Kerry won the state in the concurrent presidential race with just 49.7% of the vote and by only a 0.38% margin. To date, this is the last time Democrats won the Class 3 Senate seat from Wisconsin. Michels later ran unsuccessfully for Governor of Wisconsin in 2022.
November 2, 2004 | |||||||||||||||||
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Feingold: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Michels: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: | |||||||||||||||||
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Candidates
Democratic
- Russ Feingold, incumbent U.S. Senator
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Russ Feingold | 251,915 | 99.66% | |
| Democratic | Scattering | 862 | 0.34% | |
| Total votes | 252,777 | 100.00% | ||
Republican
- Russ Darrow
- Robert Gerald Lorge
- Tim Michels, businessman and army veteran
- Robert Welch, State Senator
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Tim Michels | 183,654 | 42.43% | |
| Republican | Russ Darrow | 130,088 | 30.05% | |
| Republican | Robert Welch | 99,971 | 23.09% | |
| Republican | Robert Gerald Lorge | 18,809 | 4.35% | |
| Republican | Scattering | 350 | 0.08% | |
| Total votes | 432,872 | 100.0% | ||
Minor candidates
Libertarian
- Arif Khan, entrepreneur
Independent
- Eugene Hem, perennial candidate and former educator
General election
Campaign
Michels insisted he had more real world experience than Feingold, someone he called an "extreme liberal" who was out of touch with Wisconsin voters. Feingold attacked back by saying that any Republican would be a rubber stamp for President Bush. The incumbent had $2.2 million in the bank, while Michels had already spent $1 million in the primary and had only about $150,000 left.
During both the primary and general election campaigns, Michels ran a series of ads attacking Feingold for his status as the sole senator to oppose the 2001 Patriot Act. One of his earliest ads during the primary accused Feingold of putting "his liberal ideology before our safety", while another primary spot featured footage of the September 11 Attacks and a voice-over saying that "our leaders passed new laws to keep us safe. But Russ Feingold voted against those laws." After easily winning the Republican primary against three opponents, Michel released two more anti-Feingold spots focusing on the Patriot Act. One of the ads showed further footage of the September 11 attacks, while another depicted a Middle Eastern spy photographing a Wisconsin nuclear power plant before Michels appears on-screen and announces that "Unlike Russ Feingold, I will support renewing the PATRIOT Act, because we need to be able to track and stop terrorists before they strike again." Michels reported that one-fifth of his campaign's advertising budget was devoted to making and airing the spots.
In October, based on a belief that Feingold was vulnerable due in part to his vote on the Patriot Act, the NRSC pledged $600,000 in support of the Michel campaign. However, after the Michel commercials generated negative attention and Feingold continued to lead comfortably in most polls, the party rescinded their financial assistance. On October 1, a poll showed Feingold leading 52% to 39%. In mid October, another poll showed Feingold winning 48% to 43%. A poll at the end of the month showed him leading 51% to 36%.
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | November 1, 2004 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Russ Feingold (D) | Tim Michels (R) | Arif Khan (L) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby International | October 27–30, 2004 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 57% | 37% | 6% | |
| Tarrance Group (R) | October 29, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 48% | 43% | 9% | |
| Zogby International | October 26–29, 2004 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 57% | 37% | 6% | |
| Tarrance Group (R) | October 28, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 41% | 10% | |
| Zogby International | October 25–28, 2004 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 57% | 37% | 6% | |
| Tarrance Group (R) | October 27, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 51% | 41% | 8% | |
| Zogby International | October 24–27, 2004 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 59% | 36% | 5% | |
| University of Wisconsin | October 23–27, 2004 | 545 (V) | ± 4% | 51% | 36% | 13% | |
| Tarrance Group (R) | October 26, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 52% | 39% | 9% | |
| Zogby International | October 23–26, 2004 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 57% | 38% | 5% | |
| Tarrance Group (R) | October 25, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 52% | 40% | 8% | |
| Zogby International | October 22–25, 2004 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 54% | 41% | 5% | |
| Zogby International | October 21–24, 2004 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 54% | 42% | 4% | |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 14, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 53% | 43% | 2% | 2% |
| St. Norbert College | October 4–13, 2004 | 401 (LV) | ± 5% | 56% | 33% | 11% | |
| Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV | October 2004 | 57% | 33% | 10% | |||
| Harris Interactive | September 22–26, 2004 | 562 (V) | ± 4% | 52% | 39% | 9% | |
| University of Wisconsin | September 15–21, 2004 | 485 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 53% | 38% | 9% | |
| ABC News | September 16–19, 2004 | 775 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 45% | 4% | |
| University of Wisconsin | June 15–23, 2004 | 504 (V) | ± 4% | 36% | 12% | 52% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Russ Feingold (D) | Russ Darrow (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Wisconsin | June 15–23, 2004 | 504 (V) | ± 4% | 40% | 16% | 44% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Russ Feingold (D) | Robert Welch (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Wisconsin | June 15–23, 2004 | 504 (V) | ± 4% | 36% | 10% | 54% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Russ Feingold (D) | Robert Gerald Lorge (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Wisconsin | June 15–23, 2004 | 504 (V) | ± 4% | 39% | 10% | 51% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Russ Feingold (incumbent) | 1,632,697 | 55.35% | |
| Republican | Tim Michels | 1,301,183 | 44.11% | |
| Libertarian | Arif Khan | 8,367 | 0.28% | |
| Independent | Eugene A. Hem | 6,662 | 0.23% | |
| Write-in | 834 | 0.03% | ||
| Total votes | 2,949,743 | 100.00% | ||
| Democratic hold | ||||
Counties that flipped Republican to Democratic
- Barron (largest city: Rice Lake)
- Brown (largest city: Green Bay)
- Burnett (largest village: Grantsburg)
- Clark (largest city: Neillsville)
- Kewaunee (largest city: Algoma)
- Langlade (largest city: Antigo)
- Manitowoc (largest city: Manitowoc)
- Marathon (largest city: Wausau)
- Monroe (largest city: Sparta)
- Oneida (largest city: Rhinelander)
- Outagamie (largest city: Appleton)
- Rusk (largest city: Ladysmith)
- Washburn (largest city: Spooner)
- Lafayette (largest city: Darlington)
- Pepin (largest city: Durand)
- Racine (largest city: Racine)
- Richland (largest city: Richland Center)
- Sawyer (largest city: Hayward)
- Winnebago (largest city: Oshkosh)
- Polk (Largest city: Amery)
- St. Croix (Largest city: Hudson)
- Taylor (Largest city: Medford)
- Door (largest city: Sturgeon Bay)
- Grant (largest city: Platteville)
- Juneau (largest city: Mauston)
- Wood (largest city: Marshfield)
- Chippewa (largest city: Chippewa Falls)
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Florence (Largest city: Florence)
See also
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