2006 United States Senate election in Florida

The 2006 United States Senate election in Florida was held November 7, 2006. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bill Nelson won re-election to a second term.

2006 United States Senate election in Florida

← 2000
November 7, 2006
2012 →
 
Nominee Bill Nelson Katherine Harris
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 2,890,548 1,826,127
Percentage 60.30% 38.10%

County results
Nelson:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Harris:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. senator before election

Bill Nelson
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Bill Nelson
Democratic

Background

During the Terri Schiavo case in March 2005, a talking points memo on the controversy was written by Brian Darling, the legal counsel to Republican Senator Mel Martínez of Florida. The memo suggested the Schiavo case offered "a great political issue" that would appeal to the party's base (core supporters) and could be used against Senator Bill Nelson, a Democrat from Florida who was up for reelection in 2006, because he had refused to co-sponsor the bill which came to be known as the Palm Sunday Compromise. Bill Nelson was nevertheless reelected as Senator on November 7, 2006, with 60% of the vote.

Florida was one of five Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that George W. Bush won in the 2004 presidential election.

Republican primary

Candidates

  • LeRoy Collins Jr., retired naval officer and son of former Governor LeRoy Collins
  • Katherine Harris, U.S. Representative and former Florida Secretary of State
  • Will McBride, attorney
  • Peter Monroe, businessman and former COO of the Federal Housing Administration

Endorsements

  • The Bradenton Herald: McBride
  • Florida (Jacksonville) Times-Union: Collins or Monroe
  • Gainesville Sun: Collins
  • Lakeland Ledger: Collins
  • Miami Herald: Collins
  • Naples Daily News: Collins
  • Orlando Sentinel: McBride
  • Palm Beach Post: Monroe
  • Sarasota Herald-Tribune: no endorsement
  • South Florida (Fort Lauderdale) Sun Sentinel: Monroe
  • St. Petersburg Times: Collins
  • Tampa Tribune: Collins

Polling

Poll Source Date LeRoy
Collins Jr.
Katherine
Harris
Will
McBride
Peter
Monroe
Strategic Vision July 26, 2006 9% 45% 22% 7%
Mason-Dixon July 26, 2006 8% 36% 11% 2%
Quinnipiac July 27, 2006 6% 40% 21% 3%
Scroth Eldon & Associates August 11, 2006 9% 28% 11% 5%
SurveyUSA August 24, 2006 20% 43% 15% 7%
Strategic Vision August 30, 2006 19% 38% 21% 5%
Quinnipiac August 31, 2006 11% 38% 22% 3%
SurveyUSA August 31, 2006 12% 45% 22% 5%
Mason-Dixon September 2, 2006 17% 38% 21% 2%
Primary Results September 5, 2006 15% 49% 30% 5%

Results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Katherine Harris 474,871 49.4
Republican Will McBride 287,741 30.0
Republican LeRoy Collins Jr. 146,712 15.3
Republican Peter Monroe 51,330 5.3
Total votes 960,654 100.0

General election

Candidates

  • Floyd Ray Frazier (Independent)
  • Katherine Harris, former Florida Secretary of State and former U.S. Representative (Republican)
  • Brian Moore, retired health care executive and former congressional candidate (Independent)
  • Bill Nelson, incumbent U.S. Senator (Democratic)
  • Belinda Noah (Independent)
  • Roy Tanner (Independent)

Campaign

The organization Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW), which monitors political corruption, complained to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) in October 2006 that the Bacardi beverage company had illegally used corporate resources in support of a fundraising event for Nelson in 2005. CREW had previously filed a similar complaint concerning a Bacardi fundraising event for Republican Senator Mel Martinez, an event that raised as much as $60,000 for Martinez's campaign. The amended complaint alleged that, on both occasions, Bacardi violated the Federal Election Campaign Act and FEC regulations by soliciting contributions from a list of the corporation's vendors.

Endorsements

In a rare move, all twenty-two of Florida's daily newspapers supported Nelson, while none supported Harris in the general election.

  • Bradenton Herald: Bill Nelson
  • Charlotte Sun-Herald: Bill Nelson
  • Daytona Beach News-Journal: Bill Nelson
  • Florida Times-Union: Bill Nelson
  • Fort Myers News-Press: Bill Nelson
  • Gainesville Sun: Bill Nelson
  • Lakeland Ledger: Bill Nelson
  • Miami Herald: Bill Nelson
  • Naples Daily News: Bill Nelson
  • Orlando Sentinel: Bill Nelson
  • Palm Beach Post: Bill Nelson
  • Pensacola News Journal: Bill Nelson
  • Saint Petersburg Times: Bill Nelson
  • Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Bill Nelson
  • Scripps Treasure Coast Newspapers: Bill Nelson
  • South Florida Sun-Sentinel: Bill Nelson
  • Tallahassee Democrat: Bill Nelson
  • Tampa Tribune: Bill Nelson

Debates

  • Complete video of debate, October 23, 2006
  • Complete video of debate, November 1, 2006

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report Solid D November 6, 2006
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe D November 6, 2006
Rothenberg Political Report Safe D November 6, 2006
Real Clear Politics Safe D November 6, 2006

Polling

Graphical summary

%support2030405060702021/02/282022/07/312022/11/2 00:00HarrisNelsonUndecided/OtherOpinion polling for the 2006 United States S...
View source data.
Poll Source Date Bill
Nelson (D)
Katherine
Harris (R)
Strategic Vision (R) July 20, 2005 48% 40%
Strategic Vision (R) August 21, 2005 47% 38%
Quinnipiac August 31, 2005 57% 33%
Strategic Vision (R) September 22, 2005 48% 36%
Rasmussen November 14, 2005 53% 36%
Quinnipiac November 15, 2005 55% 31%
Strategic Vision (R) November 30, 2005 48% 32%
Rasmussen January 5, 2006 54% 31%
Rasmussen February 14, 2006 49% 40%
Strategic Vision (R) February 22, 2006 49% 34%
Quinnipiac February 24, 2006 53% 31%
University of North Florida March 15, 2006 48% 28%
Mason-Dixon March 29, 2006 51% 35%
Strategic Vision (R) March 30, 2006 56% 28%
Zogby/WSJ March 31, 2006 50% 37%
Rasmussen April 14, 2006 57% 27%
Quinnipiac April 20, 2006 56% 27%
Strategic Vision (R) April 26, 2006 56% 24%
Rasmussen May 22, 2006 60% 33%
Strategic Vision (R) May 25, 2006 56% 26%
Quinnipiac May 25, 2006 58% 25%
Zogby/WSJ June 21, 2006 51% 33%
Strategic Vision (R) June 28, 2006 61% 26%
Quinnipiac June 30, 2006 59% 26%
Zogby/WSJ July 24, 2006 55% 34%
Strategic Vision (R) July 26, 2006 60% 22%
Mason-Dixon July 26, 2006 57% 29%
Quinnipiac July 27, 2006 61% 24%
Rasmussen July 28, 2006 61% 33%
St. Petersburg Times August 11, 2006 60% 25%
Zogby/WSJ August 28, 2006 52% 32%
Strategic Vision (R) August 30, 2006 63% 20%
Rasmussen September 5, 2006 57% 34%
Zogby/WSJ September 11, 2006 51% 33%
SurveyUSA September 14, 2006 53% 38%
Mason-Dixon September 20–22, 2006 53% 35%
Strategic Vision (R) September 27, 2006 59% 31%
Rasmussen September 27, 2006 56% 33%
Rasmussen October 4, 2006 54% 37%
SurveyUSA October 10, 2006 55% 37%
Quinnipiac October 11, 2006 61% 33%
Mason-Dixon October 16–17, 2006 57% 31%
Strategic Vision (R) October 25, 2006 58% 35%
Quinnipiac October 25, 2006 64% 29%
St. Petersburg Times October 28, 2006 56% 30%
Strategic Vision (R) November 2, 2006 59% 33%
Mason-Dixon November 3, 2006 58% 34%
SurveyUSA November 5, 2006 59% 36%

Results

As expected, Nelson was easily reelected. He won with 60.3% of the vote winning by 1,064,421 votes or 22.2%, and carried 57 of Florida's 67 counties. Nelson was projected the winner almost immediately when the polls closed at 7 P.M. EST.

General election results
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Bill Nelson (incumbent) 2,890,548 60.30% +9.26%
Republican Katherine Harris 1,826,127 38.10% −8.09%
Independent Belinda Noah 24,880 0.52% n/a
Independent Brian Moore 19,695 0.41% n/a
Independent Floyd Ray Frazier 16,628 0.35% n/a
Independent Roy Tanner 15,562 0.32% n/a
Write-in 94 0.00% n/a
Majority 1,064,421 22.21% +17.36%
Turnout 4,793,534
Democratic hold Swing

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

  • Gilchrist (Largest city: Trenton)
  • Sumter (Largest city: The Villages)
  • Bradford (Largest city: Starke)
  • Charlotte (Largest city: Charlotte)
  • Columbia (Largest city: Lake City)
  • DeSoto (Largest city: Arcadia)
  • Escambia (Largest city: Pensacola)
  • Hardee (Largest city: Wachula)
  • Highlands (Largest city: Sebring)
  • Indian River (Largest city: Sebastian)
  • Lake (Largest city: Clermont)
  • Lee (Largest city: Cape Coral)
  • Suwannee (Largest city: Live Oak)
  • Duval (largest municipality: Jacksonville)
  • Seminole (largest municipality: Sanford)
  • Hendry (Largest city: Clewiston)
  • Marion (Largest city: Ocala)

See also

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