The 2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas took place on November 2, 2010, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
November 2, 2010 | |||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 47.61% | ||||||||||||||||
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Boozman: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Lincoln: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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This was one of the three Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that John McCain won in the 2008 presidential election along with North Dakota and West Virginia. Incumbent Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln ran for re-election to a third term, facing a strong primary challenge from Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter and prevailing only in a runoff. Lincoln then lost the general election to U.S. Representative John Boozman, the younger brother of Fay Boozman, whom Lincoln defeated in 1998. Boozman became the first Republican since Reconstruction in 1872 to win this seat. Lincoln's 21% margin of defeat was the largest for a sitting senator since the 1978 United States Senate election in Maine. With Democratic Governor Mike Beebe concurrently winning re-election, this is the last time that Arkansas simultaneously voted for gubernatorial and U.S. Senate candidates of different political parties.
Democratic primary
The Democratic primary was held on May 18, 2010, with early voting from May 3 to 17. Lincoln was challenged by Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter, who ran as a more liberal alternative. As no candidate received 50 percent of the vote, a runoff election was held on June 8, with early voting from June 1 to 7. Lincoln managed to narrowly defeat Halter in the runoff.
MoveOn.org supported Halter, criticizing Lincoln for her stance on issues such as health care and environmental regulations. Labor unions also backed Halter, and pledged to spend more than $3 million on his campaign.
Candidates
Nominee
- Blanche Lincoln, incumbent U.S. Senator
Eliminated in runoff
- Bill Halter, incumbent Lieutenant Governor of Arkansas
Eliminated in primary
- D.C. Morrison, businessman
Withdrew Before Primary
- Drew Pritt, activist and 2006 candidate for Lieutenant Governor of Arkansas
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Blanche Lincoln | Bill Halter | D.C. Morrison | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research 2000 | May 10–12, 2010 | 600 | ± 5% | 46% | 37% | 6% | — | 11% |
| Research 2000 | April 26–28, 2010 | 600 | ± 5% | 43% | 35% | — | 7% (Drew Pritt) | 15% |
| Talk Business | April 13, 2010 | 1,167 | ± 3% | 38% | 31% | 10% | — | 20% |
| Research 2000 | March 22–24, 2010 | 600 | ± 4% | 44% | 31% | — | — | 25% |
| Research 2000 | November 30 – December 2, 2009 | 600 | ± 4% | 42% | 26% | — | — | 32% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Blanche Lincoln (incumbent) | 146,579 | 44.51% | |
| Democratic | Bill Halter | 140,081 | 42.53% | |
| Democratic | D.C. Morrison | 42,695 | 12.96% | |
| Total votes | 329,355 | 100.00% | ||
Runoff
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Blanche Lincoln | Bill Halter | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research 2000 | June 2–4, 2010 | 600 | ± 4% | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| Research 2000 | May 24–26, 2010 | 600 | ± 4% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Blanche Lincoln (incumbent) | 134,756 | 52.00% | |
| Democratic | Bill Halter | 124,405 | 48.00% | |
| Total votes | 259,161 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
The Republican primary was held on May 18, 2010, with early voting from May 3–17.
Candidates
Nominee
- John Boozman, optometrist and U.S. Representative for Arkansas's 3rd congressional district
Eliminated in primary
- Randy Alexander, University of Arkansas Housing Director and vice chair of the Washington County Tea Party
- Gilbert Baker, state senator
- Curtis Coleman, businessman
- Kim Hendren, minority leader of the Arkansas Senate
- Jim Holt, former state senator, nominee for this U.S. Senate seat in 2004, and nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Arkansas in 2006
- Fred Ramey, real estate investment company owner
- Conrad Reynolds, retired U.S. Army colonel
Straw poll
In December 2009, a straw poll was held for the current Republican candidates for U.S. Senate. The results were as follows:
- Gilbert Baker – 35%
- Curtis Coleman – 33%
- Conrad Reynolds – 23%
- Tom Cox – 4%
- Kim Hendren – 2%
- Fred Ramey – 2%
- Buddy Rogers – 1%
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Randy Alexander | Gilbert Baker | John Boozman | Curtis Coleman | Kim Hendren | Jim Holt | Fred Ramey | Conrad Reynolds | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research 2000 | May 10–12, 2010 | – | ± 4% | — | 12% | 46% | — | 6% | 19% | — | — | 4% | 13% |
| Talk Business | April 13, 2010 | 1,357 | ± 3% | 3% | 14% | 46% | 5% | 3% | 8% | 1% | 3% | — | 17% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Boozman | 75,010 | 52.73% | |
| Republican | Jim Holt | 24,826 | 17.45% | |
| Republican | Gilbert Baker | 16,540 | 11.63% | |
| Republican | Conrad Reynolds | 7,128 | 5.01% | |
| Republican | Curtis Coleman | 6,928 | 4.87% | |
| Republican | Kim Hendren | 5,551 | 3.90% | |
| Republican | Randy Alexander | 4,389 | 3.09% | |
| Republican | Fred Ramey | 1,888 | 1.33% | |
| Total votes | 142,260 | 100.00% | ||
General election
Candidates
- John Boozman, U.S. representative
- Blanche Lincoln, incumbent senator
- Trevor Drown (L), military veteran
- John Gray (G), Mayor of Greenland
Campaign
Arkansas had previously only elected one Republican senator since the Reconstruction, Tim Hutchinson who was defeated after his first term in 2002 by Mark Pryor. Lincoln faced Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter and narrowly won the primary contest.
The political blog FiveThirtyEight ranked Lincoln the most vulnerable senator of this electoral cycle. RealClearPolitics claimed that in 2010 Lincoln had the potential for the lowest percentage of the vote for any incumbent since the nation first began directly electing senators. Boozman received 58% of the vote in the general election and defeated Lincoln (37%), Independent Trevor Drown (3%) and Green John Gray (2%).
Lincoln heavily criticized Boozman for supporting the FairTax and privatization of Social Security, as well as trying to tie her name, and beliefs to Bill Clinton She released an advertisement touting her support for earmarks.
Debates
| No. | Date | Link | Democratic | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | ||||
| Blanche Lincoln | John Boozman | |||
| 1 | October 13, 2010 | c-span|c-span | P | P |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Lean R (flip) | October 9, 2010 |
| Inside Elections | Likely R (flip) | October 8, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R (flip) | October 28, 2010 |
| RealClearPolitics | Safe R (flip) | October 9, 2010 |
| CQ Politics | Lean R (flip) | October 9, 2010 |
Fundraising
| Candidate (Party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blanche Lincoln (D) | $9,508,007 | $8,431,989 | $1,886,132 | $0 |
| John Boozman (R) | $1,452,241 | $968,318 | $483,923 | $11,905 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission | ||||
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Blanche Lincoln (D) | John Boozman (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports | October 28, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 36% | 55% | 5% | 4% |
| CNN/Time/Opinion Research | October 15–19, 2010 | 1,505 | ± 2.5% | 41% | 55% | — | — |
| Mason-Dixon | October 15–19, 2010 | 625 | ± 4% | 34% | 55% | 6% | 5% |
| Talk Business | October 14, 2010 | 1,953 | ± 2.2% | 36% | 49% | 8% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 30, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 37% | 55% | 3% | 5% |
| Reuters/Ipsos | September 17–19, 2010 | 600 | ± 4% | 39% | 53% | 1% | 7% |
| Mason-Dixon | September 12–14, 2010 | 625 | ± 4% | 34% | 51% | 4% | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports | August 18, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 27% | 65% | 4% | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 20, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 35% | 60% | 2% | 3% |
| Reuters/Ipsos | July 16–18, 2010 | 600 | ± 4% | 35% | 54% | 1% | 10% |
| Talk Business | July 17, 2010 | 793 | ± 3.7% | 32% | 57% | 5% | 6% |
| Magellan Strategies | July 12, 2010 | 879 | ± 3.3% | 29% | 60% | 4% | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports | June 15, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 32% | 61% | 4% | 3% |
| Research 2000 | May 24–26, 2010 | 600 | ± 4% | 38% | 58% | — | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 19, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 28% | 66% | 2% | 4% |
| Research 2000 | May 10–12, 2010 | — | ± 4% | 40% | 54% | — | — |
| Research 2000 | April 26–28, 2010 | 600 | ± 5% | 42% | 52% | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports | April 26, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 30% | 57% | 9% | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports | March 30, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 36% | 51% | 6% | 7% |
| Research 2000 | March 22–24, 2010 | 600 | ± 4% | 42% | 49% | — | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports | March 1, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 48% | 6% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports | February 1, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 35% | 54% | 4% | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling | January 29–31, 2010 | 810 | ± 3.4% | 33% | 56% | — | 11% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll Source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Blanche Lincoln (D) | Gilbert Baker (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (report) | March 20–22, 2009 | 600 | ± 4% | 48% | 37% | — | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling (report) | August 21–24, 2009 | 784 | ± 3.5% | 40% | 42% | — | 18% |
| Research 2000 (report) | September 8–10, 2009 | 600 | ± 4% | 44% | 37% | — | 19% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | September 28, 2009 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 47% | 5% | 8% |
| Zogby (report) | November 16–17, 2009 | 501 | ± 4.5% | 41% | 39% | 2% | 18% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | December 1, 2009 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 41% | 47% | 6% | 7% |
| Research 2000 (report) | November 30 – December 2, 2009 | — | ± 4% | 42% | 41% | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | January 5, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 51% | 3% | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling (report) | January 29–31, 2010 | 810 | ± 3.4% | 35% | 50% | — | 15% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | February 1, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 33% | 52% | 6% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | March 1, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 40% | 45% | 6% | 8% |
| Research 2000 (report) | March 22–24, 2010 | 600 | ± 4% | 41% | 49% | — | 10% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | March 30, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 36% | 51% | 6% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | April 26, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 31% | 53% | 12% | 4% |
| Research 2000 (report) | April 26–28, 2010 | 600 | ± 5% | 40% | 47% | — | — |
| Research 2000 (report) | May 10–12, 2010 | — | ± 4% | 39% | 45% | — | — |
| Poll Source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Blanche Lincoln (D) | Kim Hendren (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research 2000 (report) | September 8–10, 2009 | 600 | ± 4% | 47% | 28% | — | 25% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | September 28, 2009 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 41% | 44% | 5% | 10% |
| Zogby (report) | November 16–17, 2009 | 501 | ± 4.5% | 45% | 29% | 2% | 24% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | December 1, 2009 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 46% | 6% | 9% |
| Research 2000 (report) | November 30 – December 2, 2009 | — | ± 4% | 46% | 30% | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | January 5, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 47% | 4% | 10% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | February 1, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 35% | 51% | 7% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | March 1, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 38% | 43% | 7% | 12% |
| Research 2000 (report) | March 22–24, 2010 | 600 | ± 4% | 43% | 48% | — | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | March 30, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 35% | 51% | 5% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | April 26, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 30% | 51% | 11% | 8% |
| Research 2000 (report) | April 26–28, 2010 | 600 | ± 5% | 40% | 50% | — | — |
| Research 2000 (report) | May 10–12, 2010 | — | ± 4% | 40% | 46% | — | — |
| Poll Source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Blanche Lincoln (D) | Curtis Coleman (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (report) | August 21–24, 2009 | 784 | ± 3.5% | 40% | 41% | — | 19% |
| Research 2000 (report) | September 8–10, 2009 | 600 | ± 4% | 45% | 37% | — | 18% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | September 28, 2009 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 41% | 43% | 5% | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | December 1, 2009 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 40% | 44% | 7% | 9% |
| Research 2000 (report) | November 30 – December 2, 2009 | — | ± 4% | 44% | 39% | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | January 5, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 38% | 48% | 4% | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | February 1, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 34% | 50% | 7% | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | March 1, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 41% | 43% | 7% | 10% |
| Research 2000 (report) | March 22–24, 2010 | 600 | ± 4% | 44% | 47% | — | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | March 30, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 36% | 48% | 7% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | April 26, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 32% | 52% | 8% | 7% |
| Research 2000 (report) | April 26–28, 2010 | 600 | ± 5% | 42% | 46% | — | — |
| Poll Source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Blanche Lincoln (D) | Jim Holt (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | March 1, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 38% | 45% | 6% | 10% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | March 30, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 35% | 51% | 7% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | April 26, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 31% | 54% | 6% | 9% |
| Research 2000 (report) | May 10–12, 2010 | — | ± 4% | 41% | 44% | — | — |
with Bill Halter
| Poll Source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bill Halter (D) | John Boozman (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | March 1, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 33% | 52% | 6% | 9% |
| Research 2000 (report) | March 22–24, 2010 | 600 | ± 4% | 40% | 48% | — | 12% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | March 30, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 34% | 48% | 8% | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | April 26, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 31% | 56% | 7% | 7% |
| Research 2000 (report) | April 26–28, 2010 | 600 | ± 5% | 42% | 47% | — | — |
| Research 2000 (report) | May 10–12, 2010 | — | ± 4% | 41% | 50% | — | — |
| Poll Source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bill Halter (D) | Gilbert Baker (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | March 1, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 37% | 44% | 5% | 13% |
| Research 2000 (report) | March 22–24, 2010 | 600 | ± 4% | 44% | 46% | — | 10% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | March 30, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 36% | 44% | 7% | 12% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | April 26, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 33% | 48% | 10% | 9% |
| Research 2000 (report) | April 26–28, 2010 | 600 | ± 5% | 43% | 44% | — | — |
| Research 2000 (report) | May 10–12, 2010 | — | ± 4% | 42% | 42% | — | — |
| Poll Source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bill Halter (D) | Kim Hendren (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | March 1, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 35% | 42% | 7% | 15% |
| Research 2000 (report) | March 22–24, 2010 | 600 | ± 4% | 44% | 45% | — | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | March 30, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 34% | 42% | 10% | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | April 26, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 33% | 45% | 15% | 9% |
| Research 2000 (report) | April 26–28, 2010 | 600 | ± 5% | 43% | 45% | — | — |
| Research 2000 (report) | May 10–12, 2010 | — | ± 4% | 42% | 42% | — | — |
| Poll Source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bill Halter (D) | Curtis Coleman (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | March 1, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 35% | 38% | 9% | 18% |
| Research 2000 (report) | March 22–24, 2010 | 600 | ± 4% | 45% | 44% | — | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | March 30, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 37% | 40% | 10% | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | April 26, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 37% | 43% | 11% | 9% |
| Research 2000 (report) | April 26–28, 2010 | 600 | ± 5% | 43% | 41% | — | — |
| Poll Source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bill Halter (D) | Jim Holt (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | March 1, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 38% | 42% | 8% | 12% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | March 30, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 34% | 43% | 9% | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | April 26, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 31% | 49% | 12% | 8% |
| Research 2000 (report) | May 10–12, 2010 | — | ± 4% | 42% | 43% | — | — |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Boozman | 451,618 | 57.90% | +13.83% | |
| Democratic | Blanche Lincoln (incumbent) | 288,156 | 36.95% | −18.95% | |
| Libertarian | Trevor Drown | 25,234 | 3.24% | +3.24% | |
| Green | John Gray | 14,430 | 1.85% | +1.85% | |
| Write-in | 519 | 0.07% | +0.04% | ||
| Total votes | 779,957 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican gain from Democratic | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Bradley (Largest city: Warren)
- Calhoun (Largest city: Hampton)
- Cleveland (Largest city: Rison)
- Columbia (Largest city: Magnolia)
- Conway (Largest city: Morrilton)
- Faulkner (Largest city: Conway)
- Franklin (Largest city: Ozark)
- Fulton (Largest city: Salem)
- Garland (Largest city: Hot Springs)
- Grant (Largest city: Sheridan)
- Howard (Largest city: Nashville)
- Independence (Largest city: Batesville)
- Johnson (Largest city: Clarksville)
- Logan (Largest city: Booneville)
- Miller (Largest city: Texarkana)
- Perry (Largest city: Perryville)
- Prairie (Largest city: Des Arc)
- Sevier (Largest city: De Queen)
- Sharp (Largest city: Cherokee Village)
- Union (Largest city: El Dorado)
- Van Buren (Largest city: Clinton)
- Washington (Largest city: Fayetteville)
- Yell (Largest city: Dardanelle)
- Ashley (Largest city: Crossett)
- Craighead (Largest city: Jonesboro)
- Cross (Largest city: Wynne)
- Dallas (Largest city: Fordyce)
- Drew (Largest city: Monticello)
- Greene (Largest city: Paragould)
- Hot Spring (Largest city: Malvern)
- Izard (Largest city: Horseshoe Bend)
- Lafayette (Largest city: Stamps)
- Nevada (Largest city: Prescott)
- Ouachita (Largest city: Camden)
- Bradley (largest city: Warren)
- Clay (largest city: Piggott)
- Hempstead (largest city: Hope)
- Little River (largest city: Ashdown)
- Poinsett (largest city: Harrisburg)
See also
- 2010 Arkansas elections
- 2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas
- 2010 Arkansas gubernatorial election
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