The 2010 United States Senate election in Connecticut was a midterm election which took place on November 2, 2010, to decide a Class III Senator from the State of Connecticut to join the 112th United States Congress. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Chris Dodd suffered from dropping approval ratings in the past few years due to major controversies, leading him to announce in January 2010 that he would retire, instead of seeking a sixth term. As Dodd was a Democrat, Richard Blumenthal, incumbent State Attorney General, announced on the same day that he would run for Dodd's seat. The Connecticut Democratic Party nominated Blumenthal on May 21. Businesswoman and future Secretary of Education Linda McMahon won the state party's nominating convention and the August 10 Republican primary to become the Republican candidate. This was the first open Senate seat in Connecticut since 1980, when Dodd was first elected. Blumenthal was the only non-incumbent Democrat to win a non-special election in 2010.
November 2, 2010 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 45.9% (voting eligible) | |||||||||||||||||||
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Blumenthal: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% McMahon: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Background
Controversies
Chris Dodd's power and popularity may have deteriorated for at least three reasons since his last re-election:
- His poor performance in his bid for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination appears to have soured local voters. Dodd was criticized for moving to Iowa and neglecting his Senate duties to pursue what many in Connecticut saw as a hopeless campaign. That poll, showing Dodd's job approval at 51% was taken before the scandals.
- Dodd received mortgage loans as part of the "Friends of Angelo Mozilo" program run by subprime mortgage lender Countrywide Financial. The Hartford Courant reported that Dodd had taken a "major credibility hit" from this scandal. A later poll in September 2008 showed Dodd's job approval declining to 43%, with 46% terming his job performance as "fair" or "poor".
- On March 18, Dodd admitted responsibility for adding provisions in the 2009 stimulus package that allowed for controversial employee bonuses. He had previously denied responsibility, saying the Administration pushed for the bonus clauses. Dodd only admitted wrongdoing after an unnamed source within the Treasury Department provided insider information to CNN. On March 19, after Dodd came forward, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner took full responsibility, saying he pushed Dodd against executive bonus limits.
In December 2008, it was reported that Dodd had a little less than $670,000 banked for a re-election campaign, far less than other senators anticipated to seek re-election. In February 2009, a poll indicated that Dodd's favorability ratings were slipping, and many Connecticut voters were not satisfied with Dodd's explanations regarding the mortgage.
On March 17, 2009, the NRSC released a web ad attacking Dodd for his Irish cottage, his mortgage, and his relocation to Iowa in 2007.
Election troubles
On March 2, 2009, noted pundit Michael Barone suggested Dodd was "ripe for the picking" in the 2010 election due to the fallout from his various controversies. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight suggested that if necessary, another Connecticut Democrat should primary Dodd. Silver rated Dodd as the single most vulnerable incumbent senator up for re-election in 2010. On December 10, 2009, the Cook Political Report listed this race as "Lean Republican."
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Susan Bysiewicz was quoted suggesting Dodd's yet unannounced re-election bid could be a drag on the candidacies of other Connecticut Democrats in 2010.
Many political leaders speculated Dodd could be persuaded to retire so as to preserve his "senior statesman" legacy. Fellow Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman had indicated that he would have supported Dodd's reelection, despite past disagreements, including Dodd's 2006 endorsement of Ned Lamont and Lieberman's support of John McCain's 2008 Presidential Campaign.
In fundraising reports issued for the first quarter of 2009, Dodd reported having raised over $1 million, but reported only five contributions from Connecticut residents.
Polling
A March 2009 Quinnipiac University Polling Institute poll confirmed Dodd's vulnerability. On April 2, 2009, Quinnipiac released a poll indicating Dodd in serious danger of losing re-election, despite the fact that Connecticut is a heavily blue state that President Obama won in 2008 with over 60% of the vote.
He failed to attain a 50% level of support against three lesser known possible Republican opponents. Former U.S. Congressman Rob Simmons (R) in particular was leading in general election polling with double digit margins, and Simmons reached as high as 51% in a GQR poll. Notably, Rasmussen Reports had Simmons 48% to 35% over Dodd in December 2009, a thirteen-point spread.
Democratic nomination
Candidates
- Richard Blumenthal, state Attorney General
- Merrick Alpert, former aide to David Walters and Al Gore
- Lee Whitnum, businesswoman
Withdrew
- Christopher Dodd, Incumbent U.S. Senator, dropped out and decided to retire
Campaign
Merrick Alpert announced his candidacy to challenge current Senator Chris Dodd in May 2009. Facing grave prospects at re-election, Dodd announced his retirement from the Senate on January 6, 2010. Richard Blumenthal, the Attorney General and former State Senator announced he would be running.
Debate
Merrick Alpert and Attorney General Richard Blumenthal squared-off in a March 1 debate highlighting important issues. On healthcare, Alpert revealed his support for a single-payer system. Blumenthal explained that pool-purchasing powers should be explored. Alpert presented information as to how insurance rates had skyrocketed in Connecticut since the Attorney General took office. On the topic of war, Blumenthal pledged his support of President Obama's current plan. Alpert expressed that, being a former peacekeeper in Bosnia, he understood what policies work and which ones do not, elaborating that the current one did not. Alpert set out a plan for the withdrawal of troops from the war in Afghanistan. On a question concerning relations with Cuba, Blumenthal explained that it would take time, and that he would put together a panel of Cuban-American people to decide the best course of action. Alpert explained that he would vote on the issue that night.
Polling
| Poll source | Dates administered | Richard Blumenthal | Merrick Alpert | Lee Whitnum | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac | January 8–12, 2010 | 84% | 4% | –– | 12% |
| Quinnipiac | March 9–15, 2010 | 81% | 6% | –– | 13% |
Results
Blumenthal won the convention overwhelmingly, disallowing any other candidate to get at least 15% of the vote necessary to get on the primary ballot. Therefore, Blumenthal went uncontested within the Democratic Party and officially became the Democratic nominee.
Republican nomination
Candidates
- Linda McMahon (campaign) - businesswoman
- Ethan Book, businessman - petitioned for placement in the Republican primary, but fell short.
- Vincent Forras, founder and CEO of Phoenix Group and founder of the 9/11 charity, "Gear-Up, Inc."
- Peter Schiff, securities dealer and investment advisor, economic adviser to Ron Paul's 2008 presidential campaign. Endorsed by the Tea Party.
- Rob Simmons, former U.S. Congressman
Campaign
On February 27, 2009, Commentary magazine reported that various Washington, D.C. Republicans were seeking to get Larry Kudlow, a popular TV talk show host and columnist, to enter the race against Dodd. State Senator Sam Caligiuri originally planned to run the U.S. Senate, but after doing poorly in both primary and general election polling he decided to drop out and instead run the U.S. House of Representatives in the 5th District. Tom Foley also left the race to run instead for Governor of Connecticut, as incumbent Governor M. Jodi Rell was not seeking re-election.
After the Quinnipiac poll that showed him edging Dodd in a potential matchup, Simmons decided to officially enter the race. Upon his announcement, the DSCC attacked Simmons for his past support of George W. Bush and ties to Jack Abramoff and Tom DeLay. A leading state political blogger, who had endorsed Simmons' opponent in 2006, questioned whether these issues were relevant to the 2010 race. Simmons suspended his campaign after he lost the convention, but did not publicly endorse McMahon. In late July, Simmons revived his effort with a TV ad reminding Connecticut Republicans that "I'm still on the ballot."
McMahon, a billionaire, spent slightly more than $21 million through July 2010. Her two primary opponents each spent slightly more than $2.5 million each. When the Republican primary was held on August 10, frontrunner and party-endorsed candidate McMahon defeated Simmons and Schiff to become the official GOP nominee for the fall election against Richard Blumenthal.
Debates
On March 2, 2010, Republican candidates Linda McMahon, Rob Simmons, and Peter Schiff participated in the first debate of the GOP campaign on Fox 61.
Polling
| Poll source | Dates administered | Rob Simmons | Linda McMahon | Peter Schiff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research 2000 | September 8–10, 2009 | 38% | –– | 1% |
| Quinnipiac | September 10–14, 2009 | 43% | –– | 2% |
| Quinnipiac | November 3–8, 2009 | 28% | 17% | 5% |
| Moore Information | December 15–16, 2009 | 35% | 37% | 4% |
| Quinnipiac | January 8–12, 2010 | 37% | 27% | 4% |
| Quinnipiac | March 9–15, 2010 | 34% | 44% | 9% |
| Research 2000 | May 24–26, 2010 | 44% | 48% | –– |
| Quinnipiac | May 24–25, 2010 | 23% | 49% | 11% |
| Quinnipiac | June 2–8, 2010 | 29% | 45% | 13% |
| Quinnipiac | July 7–13, 2010 | 25% | 52% | 13% |
| Quinnipiac | July 28 – August 2, 2010 | 30% | 47% | 14% |
| Quinnipiac | August 3–8, 2010 | 28% | 50% | 15% |
Results
Convention
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Linda McMahon* | 737 | 51.76% | |
| Republican | Rob Simmons* | 632 | 44.62% | |
| Republican | Peter Schiff | 44 | 3.11% | |
| Republican | Vincent Forras | 7 | 0.49% | |
| Republican | Ethan Book | 0 | 0.00% | |
| Total votes | 1,414 | 100.00% | ||
* Denotes candidate met the minimum threshold of 15 percent to appear on the primary ballot
Primary
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Linda McMahon | 60,479 | 49.44% | |
| Republican | Rob Simmons* | 34,011 | 27.80% | |
| Republican | Peter Schiff** | 27,831 | 22.75% | |
| Total votes | 122,321 | 100.00% | ||
* Rob Simmons suspended his campaign on May 25, 2010 but left his name on the ballot. On July 29, he re-entered the race.
** Peter Schiff collected 10,000 signatures to be placed on the ballot via petition.
General election
Two months prior to the general election, observers projected a "vicious contest" due to national committees having to focus attention and resources on Blumenthal's campaign due to revelations made in May that he had served in Vietnam during the Vietnam War (in reality, he had served in the Marine Corps Reserves for six years while receiving multiple deferments that kept him out of Vietnam). In contrast, McMahon was being labeled as CEO of WWE where "under her watch, violence was peddled to kids [and] steroid abuse was rampant". While Blumenthal's lead in the polls plummeted to three points in September, he was billed as being up by 12 points in October. By election day, McMahon was reported as having spent over $40 million on her campaign (roughly over nine times the amount of Blumenthal), which was more money spent than any other Senate candidate that year. Despite this, Blumenthal was viewed by voters in exit polls as "honest and trustworthy" based on his prior record that proved more attractive to voters than McMahon's billing as a successful businesswoman; the two candidates essentially split the independent vote while Blumenthal won the female vote and McMahon narrowly won the male vote.
Candidates
- Richard Blumenthal (D), state Attorney General
- John Mertens (CFL), professor of engineering
- Warren Mosler (I), economist and entrepreneur
- Linda McMahon (R), businesswoman
Debates
The first debate between Linda McMahon and Richard Blumenthal in the 2010 Senate race occurred on October 4, 2010, moderated by Fox News Channel anchor Bret Baier and televised live on Fox Connecticut. In the debate, McMahon identified Blumenthal as a career politician, touted her job creation record while CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, criticized Washington partisanship for Republicans not being invited to the negotiating table during healthcare reform discussions in Congress, and stated that remaining stimulus dollars were a waste that should now be used to pay down debt. Blumenthal as well criticized partisanship, saying that he would have sided with Republicans who voted against the Troubled Assets Relief Program. He also used the debate to argue that middle class tax cuts should not have to wait for current tax rates on top income earners to be extended, stated that he would oppose special interests in Washington, and criticized McMahon for outsourcing WWE products overseas.
- Complete video of debate, October 4, 2010
The Greater Norwalk Chamber of Commerce, Bridgeport Regional Business Council, and Business Council of Fairfield County sponsored a second debate in Norwalk on October 7. It was aired on News 12 Connecticut.
- Complete video of debate, October 7, 2010
A third debate between McMahon and Blumenthal was held on October 12, aired on WTNH sister network MyTV9.
- Complete video of debate, October 12, 2010
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Lean D | October 26, 2010 |
| Rothenberg | Likely D | October 22, 2010 |
| RealClearPolitics | Lean D | October 26, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D | October 21, 2010 |
| CQ Politics | Lean D | October 26, 2010 |
Polling
| Poll source | Dates administered | Richard Blumenthal (D) | Linda McMahon (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | January 4–5, 2010 | 60% | 28% |
| Rasmussen Reports | January 6, 2010 | 58% | 34% |
| YouGovPolimetrix | January 6–11, 2010 | 47% | 35% |
| Quinnipiac | January 8–12, 2010 | 64% | 23% |
| Daily Kos/Research 2000 | January 11–13, 2010 | 56% | 34% |
| Rasmussen Reports | February 1, 2010 | 56% | 36% |
| Rasmussen Reports | March 2, 2010 | 60% | 31% |
| Quinnipiac | March 9–15, 2010 | 61% | 28% |
| Rasmussen Reports | April 7, 2010 | 55% | 35% |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 4, 2010 | 52% | 39% |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 18, 2010 | 48% | 45% |
| Quinnipiac | May 24–25, 2010 | 56% | 31% |
| Daily Kos/Research 2000 | May 24–26, 2010 | 52% | 33% |
| Rasmussen Reports | June 1, 2010 | 56% | 33% |
| Quinnipiac | June 2–8, 2010 | 55% | 35% |
| Quinnipiac | July 7–13, 2010 | 54% | 37% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 15, 2010 | 53% | 40% |
| Quinnipiac | July 28 – August 2, 2010 | 50% | 40% |
| Rasmussen Reports | August 11, 2010 | 47% | 40% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 9, 2010 | 53% | 44% |
| Quinnipiac | September 8–12, 2010 | 51% | 45% |
| Quinnipiac | September 21–26, 2010 | 49% | 46% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 26, 2010 | 50% | 45% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 30 – October 2, 2010 | 53% | 41% |
| CNN/Time/Opinion Research | October 1–5, 2010 | 54% | 41% |
| Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research | October 2, 2010 | 52% | 42% |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | October 3–4, 2010 | 53% | 38% |
| CT Capitol Report/Merriman River Group | October 3, 2010 | 52% | 45% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 5, 2010 | 54% | 43% |
| Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research | October 9, 2010 | 49% | 43% |
| Quinnipiac | October 7–11, 2010 | 54% | 43% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 14, 2010 | 51% | 46% |
| Suffolk University | October 19–20, 2010 | 57% | 39% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 18–24, 2010 | 54% | 42% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 24, 2010 | 56% | 43% |
| CT Capitol Report/Merriman River Group | October 24–26, 2010 | 52% | 44% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 27–29, 2010 | 54% | 43% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 25–31, 2010 | 53% | 44% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 31, 2010 | 53% | 46% |
Fundraising
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Blumenthal (D) | $8,690,397 | $8,663,221 | $27,176 | $2,621,525 | November 22, 2010 |
| Linda McMahon (R) | $50,232,567 | $49,942,727 | $289,839 | $500,000 | November 22, 2010 |
- Source: Federal Election Commission
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Richard Blumenthal | 605,204 | 52.48% | −13.88% | |
| Working Families | Richard Blumenthal | 30,836 | 2.68% | N/A | |
| Total | Richard Blumenthal | 636,040 | 55.16% | -11.20% | |
| Republican | Linda E. McMahon | 498,341 | 43.22% | +11.08% | |
| Independent | Warren B. Mosler | 11,275 | 0.98% | N/A | |
| Connecticut for Lieberman | John Mertens | 6,735 | 0.58% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 724 | 0.06% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 1,153,115 | 100.0% | |||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
| County | Richard Blumenthal Democratic | Linda McMahon Republican | Various candidates Other parties | Total votes cast | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairfield | 146,926 | 51.6% | 134,242 | 47.15% | 3,555 | 1.24% | 284,723 |
| Hartford | 168,891 | 58.44% | 115,628 | 40.01% | 4,459 | 1.55% | 288,978 |
| Litchfield | 32,824 | 44.98% | 38,888 | 53.29% | 1,267 | 1.73% | 72,979 |
| Middlesex | 36,258 | 55.44% | 27,991 | 42.8% | 1,150 | 1.76% | 65,399 |
| New Haven | 153,377 | 57.97% | 107,376 | 40.58% | 3,828 | 1.45% | 264,581 |
| New London | 49,286 | 57.36% | 34,810 | 40.51% | 1,832 | 2.13% | 85,928 |
| Tolland | 28,638 | 53.11% | 24,148 | 44.78% | 1,137 | 2.11% | 53,923 |
| Windham | 19,840 | 55.3% | 15,258 | 42.53% | 782 | 2.18% | 35,880 |
| Total | 636,040 | 55.16% | 498,341 | 43.22% | 18,734 | 1.62% | 1,153,115 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Litchfield (largest city: Torrington)
By congressional district
Blumenthal won all five congressional districts.
| District | Blumenthal | McMahon | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 59% | 39% | John B. Larson |
| 2nd | 55% | 43% | Joe Courtney |
| 3rd | 61% | 38% | Rosa DeLauro |
| 4th | 52% | 47% | Jim Himes |
| 5th | 50% | 49% | Chris Murphy |
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