2010 United States Senate election in Missouri

The 2010 United States Senate election in Missouri took place on November 2, 2010, alongside 36 other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Primary elections were held on August 3, 2010. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Kit Bond decided to retire instead of seeking a fifth term. Republican nominee Roy Blunt won the open seat.

2010 United States Senate election in Missouri

← 2004
November 2, 2010
2016 →
 
Nominee Roy Blunt Robin Carnahan
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,054,160 789,736
Percentage 54.23% 40.63%

County results

Blunt:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

Carnahan:      50–60%      70–80%

U.S. senator before election

Kit Bond
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Roy Blunt
Republican

Republican primary

Candidates

  • Roy Blunt, U.S. representative since 1997
  • Davis Conway
  • Tony Laszacs
  • Hector Maldonado, sales representative
  • Kristi Nichols, sales manager, activist, perennial candidate
  • R.L. Praprotnik
  • Chuck Purgason, state senator
  • Deborah Solomon
  • Mike Vontz

Polling

Poll source Dates administered Roy Blunt Chuck Purgason Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 13–15, 2009 53% 16% 31%
Public Policy Polling March 27–28, 2010 48% 18% 34%

Results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Roy Blunt 411,040 70.9%
Republican Chuck Purgason 75,663 13.1%
Republican Kristi Nichols 40,744 7.0%
Republican Deborah Solomon 15,099 2.6%
Republican Hector Maldonado 8,731 1.5%
Republican Davis Conway 8,525 1.5%
Republican R.L. Praprotnik 8,047 1.4%
Republican Tony Laszacs 6,309 1.1%
Republican Mike Vontz 5,190 0.9%
Total votes 579,348 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

  • Robin Carnahan, Missouri Secretary of State, daughter of former U.S. Senator Jean Carnahan and former governor Mel Carnahan
  • Richard Charles Tolbert
  • Francis Vangeli

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Robin Carnahan 266,349 83.9%
Democratic Richard Charles Tolbert 33,731 10.6%
Democratic Francis Vangeli 17,511 5.5%
Total votes 317,591 100.00%

Other primaries

Constitution

Candidates

Declared
  • Jerry Beck
  • Joe Martellaro
  • Mike Simmons
Constitution Party primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Constitution Jerry Beck 819 43.5%
Constitution Mike Simmons 554 29.4%
Constitution Joe Martello 511 27.1%
Total votes 1,884 100.00%

Libertarian

Candidates

Declared
  • Jonathan Dine
  • Cisse Spragins
Libertarian primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Jonathan Dine 2,069 58.6%
Libertarian Cisse Spragins 1,460 41.4%
Total votes 3,529 100.00%

General election

Candidates

  • Jerry Beck (C)
  • Roy Blunt (R), U.S. representative
  • Robin Carnahan (D), Missouri secretary of state
  • Jonathan Dine (L)
  • Mark S. Memoly (write-in)
  • Frazier Glenn Miller (write-in), perennial candidate
  • Jeff Wirick (write-in)
  • Richie L. Wolfe (write-in)

Campaign

Carnahan and national Democrats heavily criticized Blunt for his support of bailouts, calling him "Bailout Blunt." Blunt criticized her for supporting President Obama's stimulus package, the cap-and-trade energy bill, and the Affordable Care Act.

Carnahan was endorsed by the Kansas City Star, St. Louis Post-Dispatch, and St. Louis American.

Blunt was endorsed by the Quincy Herald-Whig and St. Joseph News-Press.

Debates

  • October 14: Televised on Kansas City Public Television in Kansas City, Missouri.
  • October 18: Missouri Press Association convention in Lake of the Ozarks State Park.
  • October 29: Televised on KTVI in St. Louis.

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report Lean R October 26, 2010
Rothenberg Lean R October 22, 2010
RealClearPolitics Likely R October 26, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely R October 21, 2010
CQ Politics Lean R October 26, 2010

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Roy Blunt (R) Robin Carnahan (D) Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 10–11, 2009 867 ± 3.3% 44% 45% –– 11%
Wilson Strategies (R) March 7–9, 2009 600 ± 4.0% 44% 47% –– 9%
Democracy Corps (D) April 28–30, 2009 800 ± 3.5% 44% 53% –– 3%
Momentum Analysis (D) September 19, 2009 802 ± 3.5% 45% 48% –– 7%
Rasmussen Reports September 21, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 46% 46% 2% 5%
Public Policy Polling November 13–15, 2009 763 ± 3.6% 42% 43% –– 15%
Rasmussen Reports December 15, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 44% 46% 4% 6%
YouGovPolimetrix January 6–11, 2010 500 –– 39% 43% –– 19%
Rasmussen Reports January 19, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 49% 43% 3% 5%
Rasmussen Reports February 10, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 49% 42% 3% 6%
Rasmussen Reports March 9, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 47% 41% 4% 8%
Public Policy Polling March 27–28, 2010 495 ± 4.4% 45% 41% –– 13%
Rasmussen Reports April 6, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 48% 42% 3% 7%
Rasmussen Reports May 3, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 50% 42% 4% 4%
Rasmussen Reports June 2, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 45% 44% 4% 6%
Rasmussen Reports June 28, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 48% 43% 3% 6%
Rasmussen Reports July 13, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 47% 45% 2% 6%
Mason Dixon July 19–21, 2010 625 ± 4.0% 48% 42% –– 10%
Rasmussen Reports July 27, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 49% 43% 4% 4%
Rasmussen Reports August 10, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 50% 43% 3% 4%
Public Policy Polling August 14–15, 2010 –– ± 3.73% 45% 38% 8% 9%
Rasmussen Reports August 23, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 51% 40% 5% 4%
Rasmussen Reports September 7, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 53% 43% 2% 2%
Rasmussen Reports September 21, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 52% 44% 2% 3%
Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research October 2, 2010 1,000 ± 3.0% 50% 42% 5% 3%
CNN/Time/Opinion Research October 1–5, 2010 1,398 ± 2.5% 53% 40% 4% ––
Rasmussen Reports October 5, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 51% 43% 3% 2%
Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research October 16, 2010 1,000 ± 3.0% 49% 43% 5% 3%
Public Policy Polling October 17–18, 2010 646 ± 3.9% 46% 41% 6% 7%
Rasmussen Reports October 19, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 52% 43% 4% 3%
Mason-Dixon October 18–20, 2010 625 ± 4.0% 49% 40% 3% 8%
KSN3/Missouri State University October 20–27, 2010 821 ± 3.8% 54% 41% 3% 2%

Fundraising

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Roy Blunt (R) $8,203,670 $4,537,049 $4,003,030 $0
Robin Carnahan (D) $7,297,929 $3,658,278 $3,639,651 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission

Results

United States Senate election in Missouri, 2010
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Roy Blunt 1,054,160 54.23% −1.86%
Democratic Robin Carnahan 789,736 40.63% −2.17%
Libertarian Jonathan Dine 58,663 3.02% +2.29%
Constitution Jerry Beck 41,309 2.12% +1.73%
Write-in 31 0.00% N/A
Total votes 1,943,899 100.0%
Republican hold

See also

  • United States Senate elections, 2010
  • Missouri state auditor election, 2010
  • Missouri Senate elections, 2010

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