The 2012 congressional election in Montana was held on November 6, 2012, to determine who would represent the state of Montana in the United States House of Representatives. At the time, Montana had one seat in the House. Incumbent Denny Rehberg did not run for reelection, choosing instead to run unsuccessfully for the seat in the U.S. Senate. A primary election was held on June 5, 2012. Republican businessman Steve Daines won the open seat.
November 6, 2012 | |||||||||||||||||
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County results Daines: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Gillan: 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Steve Daines, businessman and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2008
Eliminated in primary
- Eric Brosten, author and engineer
- Vincent Melkus, student at Colorado Mesa University and former Marine
Withdrawn
- John Abarr, white supremacist and Ku Klux Klan organizer.
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John Abarr | Steve Daines | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 382 | ± 5.0% | 14% | 22% | — | 64% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Steve Daines | 82,843 | 71.2 | |
| Republican | Eric Brosten | 21,012 | 18.1 | |
| Republican | Vincent Melkus | 12,420 | 10.7 | |
| Total votes | 116,275 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Kim Gillan, state senator from Billings
Eliminated in primary
- Sam Rankin, real estate salesman and candidate for this seat in 2010
- Diane Smith, businesswoman
- Dave Strohmaier, Missoula city council member
- Rob Stutz, attorney
- Jason Ward, farmer and construction manager for the Crow Nation
- Franke Wilmer, state representative from Bozeman
Declined
- Melinda Gopher, writer and candidate for this seat in 2010
- Brian Schweitzer, Governor of Montana
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kim Gillan | Sam Rankin | Diane Smith | Dave Strohmaier | Rob Stutz | Jason Ward | Franke Wilmer | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | April 26–29, 2012 | 332 | ± 5.4% | 21% | 4% | 13% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 11% | 41% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Kim Gillan | 25,077 | 31.0 | |
| Democratic | Franke Wilmer | 14,836 | 18.4 | |
| Democratic | Diane Smith | 12,618 | 15.6 | |
| Democratic | Dave Strohmaier | 11,366 | 14.1 | |
| Democratic | Sam Rankin | 9,382 | 11.6 | |
| Democratic | Jason Ward | 4,959 | 6.1 | |
| Democratic | Rob Stutz | 2,586 | 3.2 | |
| Total votes | 80,824 | 100.0 | ||
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
- David Kaiser
General election
Endorsements
Steve Daines (R)
Organizations
- National Republican Congressional Committee "Vanguard" Program
Kim Gillan (D)
Organizations
- Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "Red to Blue" Program
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Steve Daines (R) | Kim Gillan (D) | David Kaiser (L) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | November 2–3, 2012 | 737 | ± 3.6% | 48% | 44% | 3% | 4% |
| Mason-Dixon | October 29–31, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 40% | 1% | 8% |
| Pharos Research Group | October 26–28, 2012 | 799 | ± 4.9% | 52% | 45% | – | 4% |
| Pharos Research Group | October 19–21, 2012 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | October 8–10, 2012 | 737 | ± 3.6% | 43% | 34% | 10% | 12% |
| MSU-Billings | September 27–30, 2012 | 477 | ± 4.6% | 36% | 23% | 3% | 38% |
| Mellman (D-Montana JET PAC) | September 23–26, 2012 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 36% | 34% | 5% | 25% |
| Mason-Dixon | September 17–19, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 38% | 2% | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | September 10–11, 2012 | 656 | ± 3.8% | 40% | 37% | 9% | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | April 26–29, 2012 | 934 | ± 3.2% | 33% | 27% | — | 40% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 35% | 27% | — | 38% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John Abarr (R) | Kim Gillan (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (report) | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 30% | 26% | — | 44% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John Abarr (R) | Franke Wilmer (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (report) | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 33% | 25% | — | 42% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Steve Daines (R) | Franke Wilmer (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | April 26–29, 2012 | 934 | ± 3.2% | 36% | 25% | — | 39% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 35% | 25% | — | 40% |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Likely R | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg | Safe R | November 2, 2012 |
| Roll Call | Likely R | November 4, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R | November 5, 2012 |
| NY Times | Safe R | November 4, 2012 |
| RCP | Likely R | November 4, 2012 |
| The Hill | Likely R | November 4, 2012 |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Steve Daines | 255,468 | 53.25% | −7.16% | |
| Democratic | Kim Gillan | 204,939 | 42.72% | +8.88% | |
| Libertarian | David Kaiser | 19,333 | 4.03% | −1.71% | |
| Total votes | 479,740 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Missoula (Largest city: Missoula)
- Glacier (largest city: Cut Bank)
- Roosevelt (largest city: Wolf Point)
- Hill (largest city: Havre)
- Blaine (largest city: Chinooko)
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