The 2012 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
November 6, 2012 | |||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 52.9% (voting eligible) | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Flake: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Carmona: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Senator Jon Kyl, a Republican and the Senate Minority Whip, decided to retire instead of seeking a fourth term. U.S. Representative Jeff Flake won the open seat.
As of 2024, this was the last time that a Republican won Arizona's Class 1 Senate seat.
Republican primary
The filing deadline for Republican candidates was June 1, 2012, and the primary election took place on August 28, 2012.
Candidates
Declared
- Wil Cardon, CEO of a real estate investment firm
- Jeff Flake, U.S. Representative from the 6th district
- Bryan Hackbarth, former mayor of Youngtown
- Clair Van Steenwyk, conservative radio host
Withdrew
- Doug McKee, businessman
Declined
- Fife Symington III, former Arizona governor
- Joe Arpaio, Maricopa County sheriff (running for re-election as Sheriff)
- Jan Brewer, Arizona governor
- Trent Franks, U.S. representative
- J. D. Hayworth, former U.S. representative
- Jon Kyl, incumbent U.S. senator
- Sarah Palin, former governor of Alaska (2006–2009) and nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2008
- Ben Quayle, U.S. representative
- David Schweikert, U.S. representative
- John Shadegg, former U.S. representative
Endorsements
Jeff Flake
- Former Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK)
- Governor Bobby Jindal (R-LA)
- Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC) & Senate Conservatives Fund
- Senator Mike Lee (R-UT)
- Senator Rand Paul (R-KY)
- Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA)
- Senator John McCain (R-AZ)
- Senator Jon Kyl (R-AZ)
- Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI)
- Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX)
- Arizona Association of Realtors
- Arizona Farm Bureau
- Arizona Home Builders
- Arizona Right to Life
- Arizona Sportsmen for Wildlife
- Citizens Against Government Waste
- Club for Growth
- FreedomWorks
- GING PAC
- GOProud
- NRA Political Victory Fund
- National Taxpayers Union
Wil Cardon
- Rick Santorum, former U.S. Senator (R-PA)
- Congressman Trent Franks (R-AZ)
- State Senator Don Shooter (R-AZ)
- State Senator Steve Smith (R-AZ)
- State Senator Al Melvin (R-AZ)
- State Senator Judy Burges (R-AZ)
- State Representative Steve Montenegro (R-AZ)
- State Representative John Fillmore (R-AZ)
- Mayor Scott Smith of Mesa
- Mayor Elaine Scruggs of Glendale
- Americans for Legal Immigration
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Wil Cardon | Jeff Flake | Bryan Hackbarth | Doug McKee | Clair Van Steenwyk | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | May 17–20, 2012 | 421 | ± 4.8% | 20% | 42% | 3% | 1% | 2% | — | 33% |
| Public Policy Polling | February 17–19, 2012 | 412 | ± 4.8% | 7% | 56% | 5% | 1% | 1% | — | 31% |
| Public Policy Polling | November 17–20, 2011 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 7% | 53% | 5% | 1% | 2% | — | 33% |
| Magellan Strategies | November 14–15, 2011 | 722 | ± 3.6% | 4% | 52% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 8% | 32% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jeff Flake | 357,360 | 69.3% | |
| Republican | Wil Cardon | 110,150 | 21.4% | |
| Republican | Clair Van Steenwyk | 29,159 | 5.6% | |
| Republican | Bryan Hackbarth | 19,174 | 3.7% | |
| Republican | John Lyon (Write-in) | 126 | nil | |
| Republican | Luis Acle (Write-in) | 56 | nil | |
| Total votes | 516,025 | 100% | ||
Democratic primary
Former Surgeon General Richard Carmona was the only candidate for the Democratic nomination, receiving all 289,881 votes cast in the primary election.
Candidates
Declared
- Richard Carmona, former Surgeon General of the United States
Withdrew
- Don Bivens, former chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party
- David Ruben, physician
Declined
- Dennis Burke, United States Attorney
- Phil Gordon, Mayor of Phoenix
- Ed Pastor, U.S. Representative
- Warren Stewart, civil rights leader
- Gabby Giffords, former U.S. Representative
- Mark Kelly, astronaut and husband of Gabrielle Giffords, (later elected to Arizona's Class 3 Senate seat in 2020).
- Janet Napolitano, U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security and former Arizona governor
- Jim Pederson, former Arizona Democratic Party chairman and 2006 Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate
Polling
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Dennis Burke | Rodney Glassman | Terry Goddard | Phil Gordan | Harry Mitchell | Ed Pastor | Felecia Rotellini | Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | April 28 – May 1, 2011 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 2% | 5% | 50% | 8% | 11% | 5% | 6% | 14% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Richard Carmona | 289,881 | 100% | |
| Total votes | 289,881 | 100% | ||
General election
Candidates
- Jeff Flake (Republican), U.S. Representative
- Richard Carmona (Democratic), former U.S. Surgeon General
- Michael F. Meyer (independent)
- Marc J. Victor (Libertarian), attorney
Debates
There were three debates before the election. The first was in Phoenix on October 10, 2012, the second in Tucson on October 15 and the last was in Yuma on October 25. External links
- Complete video of debate, October 10, 2012 – C-SPAN
- Complete video of debate, October 15, 2012 – C-SPAN
- Complete video of debate, October 25, 2012 – C-SPAN
Fundraising
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Flake (R) | $9,026,951 | $9,557,420 | $97,360 | $0 |
| Richard Carmona (D) | $6,459,739 | $6,373,544 | $86,195 | $0 |
| Marc J. Victor (L) | $8,336 | $8,334 | $0 | $0 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission | ||||
Top contributors
| Richard Carmona | Contribution | Jeff Flake | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Arizona | $54,100 | Club for Growth | $1,000,112 | |
| League of Conservation Voters | $53,148 | Senate Conservatives Fund | $176,484 | |
| Canyon Ranch | $31,400 | US Airways | $54,300 | |
| Clorox Company | $25,000 | Freeport-McMoRan | $53,750 | |
| Arizona State University | $22,600 | Cancer Treatment Centers of America | $40,500 | |
| Banner Health | $18,500 | Knight Transportation | $35,500 | |
| Lewis and Roca | $17,100 | Pinnacle West Capital | $35,500 | |
| Taser International | $15,500 | Marriott International | $29,750 | |
| Coca-Cola Co | $15,286 | Shamrock Farms | $24,750 | |
| Pederson Group | $15,000 | Services Group of America | $15,650 | |
| Source: OpenSecrets | ||||
Top industries
| Richard Carmona | Contribution | Jeff Flake | Contribution | Ian Gilyeat | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retired | $653,066 | Republican/Conservative | $1,146,046 | Retired | $250 |
| Lawyers/Law Firms | $409,395 | Retired | $643,260 | Lawyers/Law Firms | $250 |
| Health Professionals | $313,135 | Leadership PACs | $502,352 | ||
| Leadership PACs | $279,530 | Real Estate | $302,572 | ||
| Colleges/Universities | $189,270 | Financial Institutions | $279,670 | ||
| Real Estate | $145,000 | Lawyers/Law Firms | $200,702 | ||
| Business Services | $122,749 | Misc Finance | $188,122 | ||
| Financial Institutions | $118,500 | Mining | $170,602 | ||
| Democratic/Liberal | $111,889 | Health Professionals | $164,607 | ||
| Lobbyists | $105,172 | Oil & Gas | $147,860 | ||
| Source: OpenSecrets | |||||
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Tossup | November 1, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean R | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg Political Report | Tilt R | November 2, 2012 |
| Real Clear Politics | Lean R | November 5, 2012 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jeff Flake (R) | Richard Carmona (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | November 2–3, 2012 | 1,080 | ± 3% | 51% | 46% | — | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 21, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 50% | 44% | 3% | 3% |
| Rocky Mountain Poll | October 4–10, 2012 | 523 | ± 4.4% | 40% | 44% | — | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 1–3, 2012 | 595 | ± 4% | 43% | 45% | — | 12% |
| HighGround/Moore | September 25–26, 2012 | 500 | ± 4% | 43% | 40% | 5% | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 25, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 47% | 41% | 3% | 9% |
| LCV/Public Policy Polling | September 7–9, 2012 | 993 | ± n/a% | 44% | 43% | — | 13% |
| LCV/Public Policy Polling | July 23–25, 2012 | 833 | ± 3.4% | 38% | 38% | — | 25% |
| Rasmussen Reports | June 26, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 47% | 31% | 5% | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 4–5, 2012 | 791 | ± 3.5% | 43% | 41% | — | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 17–20, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 48% | 35% | — | 17% |
| Magellan Strategies | April 30 – May 2, 2012 | 909 | ± 3.3% | 44% | 40% | — | 16% |
| Rasmussen Reports | March 13, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 47% | 34% | 4% | 16% |
| NBC News/Marist | February 19–20, 2012 | 2,487 | ± 2.0% | 42% | 29% | — | 28% |
| Public Policy Polling | February 17–19, 2012 | 743 | ± 3.6% | 46% | 35% | — | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling | November 17–20, 2011 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 40% | 36% | — | 24% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Wil Cardon (R) | Richard Carmona (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | November 17–20, 2011 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 35% | 33% | — | 32% |
| Public Policy Polling | February 17–19, 2012 | 743 | ± 3.6% | 37% | 33% | — | 30% |
| Rasmussen Reports | March 13, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 38% | 3% | 20% |
| Magellan Strategies | April 30 – May 2, 2012 | 909 | ± 3.3% | 41% | 40% | — | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 17–20, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 40% | 37% | — | 23% |
Republican primary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jeff Flake | J.D. Hayworth | Sarah Palin | Gary Pierce | Marilyn Quayle | Fife Symington | Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | April 28 – May 1, 2011 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 33% | 11% | 35% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 13% |
Democratic primary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Dennis Burke | Gabrielle Giffords | Rodney Glassman | Terry Goddard | Phil Gordan | Harry Mitchell | Ed Pastor | Felecia Rotellini | Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | April 28 – May 1, 2011 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 2% | 46% | 4% | 28% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 6% |
with Don Bivens
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Wil Cardon (R) | Don Bivens (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | November 17–20, 2011 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 35% | 27% | — | 37% |
| Public Policy Polling | February 17–19, 2012 | 743 | ± 3.6% | 38% | 32% | — | 31% |
| Rasmussen Reports | March 13, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 42% | 30% | 4% | 24% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jeff Flake (R) | Don Bivens (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | November 17–20, 2011 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 32% | — | 26% |
| Public Policy Polling | February 17–19, 2012 | 743 | ± 3.6% | 46% | 35% | — | 19% |
| Rasmussen Reports | March 13, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 47% | 30% | 3% | 20% |
with J.D. Hayworth
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | J.D. Hayworth (R) | Gabrielle Giffords (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | April 28 – May 1, 2011 | 623 | ± 3.9% | 31% | 57% | 12% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | J.D. Hayworth (R) | Terry Goddard (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | April 28 – May 1, 2011 | 623 | ± 3.9% | 33% | 51% | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | J.D. Hayworth (R) | Phil Gordon (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | April 28 – May 1, 2011 | 623 | ± 3.9% | 36% | 44% | 20% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | J.D. Hayworth (R) | Ed Pastor (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | April 28 – May 1, 2011 | 623 | ± 3.9% | 37% | 42% | 21% |
with Jeff Flake
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jeff Flake (R) | Gabrielle Giffords (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | April 28 – May 1, 2011 | 623 | ± 3.9% | 41% | 48% | 11% |
with Jon Kyl
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jon Kyl (R) | Terry Goddard (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | January 28–30, 2011 | 599 | ± 4.0% | 50% | 40% | 9% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jon Kyl (R) | Phil Gordon (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | January 28–30, 2011 | 599 | ± 4.0% | 54% | 33% | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jon Kyl (R) | Ann Kirkpatrick (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | January 28–30, 2011 | 599 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 35% | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jon Kyl (R) | Janet Napolitano (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | January 28–30, 2011 | 599 | ± 4.0% | 53% | 41% | 6% |
with Sarah Palin
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Sarah Palin (R) | Gabrielle Giffords (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | April 28 – May 1, 2011 | 623 | ± 3.9% | 36% | 54% | 10% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Sarah Palin (R) | Terry Goddard (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | April 28 – May 1, 2011 | 623 | ± 3.9% | 40% | 49% | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Sarah Palin (R) | Phil Gordon (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | April 28 – May 1, 2011 | 623 | ± 3.9% | 41% | 45% | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Sarah Palin (R) | Ed Pastor (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | April 28 – May 1, 2011 | 623 | ± 3.9% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jeff Flake | 1,104,457 | 49.23% | −4.11% | |
| Democratic | Richard Carmona | 1,036,542 | 46.20% | +2.70% | |
| Libertarian | Marc J. Victor | 102,109 | 4.55% | +1.39% | |
| Independent | Steven Watts (write-in) | 290 | 0.01% | N/A | |
| Independent | Don Manspeaker (write-in) | 24 | 0.00% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 2,243,422 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
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By congressional district
Despite losing, Carmona carried five of nine congressional districts.
| District | Carmona | Flake | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 49.11% | 46.32% | Ann Kirkpatrick |
| 2nd | 51.52% | 45.03% | Ron Barber |
| 3rd | 63.08% | 32.79% | Raúl Grijalva |
| 4th | 33.36% | 60.94% | Paul Gosar |
| 5th | 35.52% | 60.06% | Matt Salmon |
| 6th | 40.32% | 55.35% | David Schweikert |
| 7th | 71.87% | 23.14% | Ed Pastor |
| 8th | 38.9% | 56.29% | Trent Franks |
| 9th | 51.77% | 43.39% | Kyrsten Sinema |
See also
- 2012 United States Senate elections
- 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona
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