The 2012 United States Senate election in Hawaii took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic senator Daniel Akaka decided to retire instead of seeking a fourth full term. Democrat Mazie Hirono defeated Republican Linda Lingle. This was the first open Senate seat in the state of Hawaii since 1976.
November 6, 2012 | |||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 44.2% (voting eligible) | ||||||||||||||||
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Hirono: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Lingle: 50–60% 60–70% Tie: 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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This was a rematch of the 2002 Hawaii gubernatorial election, which Linda Lingle won 51.56% - 47.01%.
Background
U.S. Representative Daniel Akaka was appointed by Governor John Waihee to the U.S. Senate to serve temporarily after the death of U.S. Senator Spark Matsunaga, and sworn into office on May 16, 1990. On November 6 of the same year, he was elected to complete the remaining four years of Matsunaga's unexpired term. He was re-elected in 1994 for a first full six-year term and again in 2000 and 2006. Despite originally saying he would seek re-election in 2012, on March 2, 2011, Akaka announced that he would not run for re-election.
Democratic primary
The primary election was held on August 11. After being locked in a tight race with Ed Case, her predecessor in Congress, incumbent Congresswoman Mazie Hirono pulled away in the final vote, handily defeating Case.
Candidates
- Ed Case, former U.S. representative
- Michael Gillespie
- Antonio Gimbernat
- Mazie Hirono, U.S. representative and 2002 nominee for governor
- Arturo Reyes
Withdrew
- Daniel Akaka, incumbent U.S. Senator
Declined
- Tammy Duckworth, Assistant Secretary of Public/Intergovernmental Affairs (ran for Congress in Illinois)
- Colleen Hanabusa, U.S. Representative
- Mufi Hannemann, former mayor of Honolulu (ran for Congress)
Campaign
In December 2011, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chairwoman and U.S. Senator Patty Murray for Washington endorsed Hirono. U.S. Senator and President Pro Tempore Daniel Inouye for Hawaii also endorsed her. Case criticized "D.C. insiders." He also argued that he is a fiscal moderate, while Hirono was rated the 6th most liberal member of the U.S. House. The Daily Kos blog described Ed Case as a "Democratic villain."
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ed Case | Mazie Hirono | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | October 13–16, 2011 | 368 | ±5.1% | 40% | 45% | 15% |
| Civil Beat Poll | January 18–19, 2012 | 1,358 | ±2.7% | 41% | 39% | 20% |
| Honolulu Star-Advertiser | January 26 – February 5, 2012 | 599 | ±4.0% | 36% | 56% | 8% |
| Civil Beat Poll | June 5–7, 2012 | 731 | ±3.6% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Honolulu Star-Advertiser | July 5–9, 2012 | 599 | ±4.0% | 40% | 43% | 9% |
| Honolulu Star-Advertiser | July 12–21, 2012 | 606 | ±4.0% | 37% | 55% | 8% |
| Civil Beat/Merriman River | July 31 – August 2, 2012 | 1,227 | ±2.8% | 47% | 46% | 9% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Mazie Hirono | 134,745 | 57% | |
| Democratic | Ed Case | 95,553 | 40% | |
| Blank Votes | 3,331 | 1% | ||
| Democratic | Arturo Reyes | 1,720 | 1% | |
| Democratic | Michael Gillespie | 1,104 | 1% | |
| Democratic | Antonio Gimbernat | 517 | 0.2% | |
| Over Votes | 110 | 0% | ||
| Total votes | 237,080 | 100% | ||
Republican primary
The primary election was held on August 11.
Candidates
- John Carroll, former state senator, former state representative and perennial candidate
- Charles Collins
- Linda Lingle, former governor
- Eddie Pirkowski, businessman and perennial candidate
- John Roco
Declined
- Duke Aiona, former lieutenant governor
- Charles Djou, former U.S. representative (running for U.S. House)
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John Carroll | Linda Lingle | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | October 13–16, 2011 | 293 | ±5.7% | 9% | 85% | 6% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Linda Lingle | 44,252 | 90% | |
| Republican | John Carroll | 2,900 | 6% | |
| Blank Votes | 749 | 2% | ||
| Republican | John Roco | 545 | 1% | |
| Republican | Charles Collins | 366 | 1% | |
| Republican | Eddie Pirkowski | 232 | 0.5% | |
| Over Votes | 25 | 0.1% | ||
| Total votes | 49,069 | 100% | ||
General election
Candidates
- Heath Beasley (independent)
- Mazie Hirono (Democratic), U.S. representative
- Linda Lingle (Republican), former governor
Debates
- September 6, 2012 – Honolulu Japanese Chamber of Commerce and various other hosts
- October 8, 2012 – AARP Hawaii
- October 16, 2012 – Honolulu Civil Beat, Complete video of debate at C-SPAN
- October 18, 2012 – PBS Hawaii
- October 22, 2012 – Hawaii Star Advertiser
Fundraising
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mazie Hirono (D) | $5,518,572 | $5,657,753 | $77,323 | $241,951 |
| Linda Lingle (R) | $5,865,323 | $5,839,282 | $26,042 | $194,534 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission | ||||
Top contributors
| Mazie Hirono | Contribution | Linda Lingle | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMILY's List | $215,640 | Goldman Sachs | $39,900 | |
| University of Hawaii | $29,900 | Elliott Management Corporation | $39,500 | |
| Kobayashi, Sugita & Goda | $24,618 | Humanscale Corporation | $34,000 | |
| Alexander & Baldwin | $23,100 | Bank of America | $21,240 | |
| RM Towill Corp | $23,000 | Richie's Specialty Pharmacy | $20,000 | |
| Weitz & Luxenberg | $22,400 | Marriott International | $19,500 | |
| Council for a Livable World | $20,914 | Murray Energy | $19,205 | |
| Nan, Inc. | $20,000 | State of Hawaii | $18,350 | |
| Thornton & Naumes | $20,000 | Devon Energy | $15,500 | |
| BNP Paribas | $17,250 | Crown Associates Realty | $15,000 | |
| Source: OpenSecrets | ||||
Top industries
| Mazie Hirono | Contribution | Linda Lingle | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lawyers/law firms | $524,619 | Retired | $640,433 | |
| Women's issues | $336,772 | Financial institutions | $368,837 | |
| Retired | $194,307 | Leadership PACs | $291,500 | |
| Leadership PACs | $186,500 | Real estate | $249,216 | |
| Real estate | $123,598 | Pro-Israel | $185,500 | |
| Transportation unions | $110,400 | Health professionals | $154,550 | |
| Lobbyists | $109,344 | Petroleum industry | $137,950 | |
| Public sector unions | $108,000 | Misc. finance | $137,500 | |
| Democratic/liberal | $85,788 | Lawyers/law firms | $135,086 | |
| Shipping industry | $85,385 | Republican/conservative | $101,664 | |
| Source: OpenSecrets | ||||
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Lean D | November 1, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely D | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg Political Report | Likely D | November 2, 2012 |
| Real Clear Politics | Likely D | November 5, 2012 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mazie Hirono (D) | Linda Lingle (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | March 24–27, 2011 | 898 | ±3.3% | 52% | 40% | 9% |
| Honolulu Star-Advertiser | May 4–10, 2011 | 614 | ±4.0% | 57% | 35% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 13–16, 2011 | 568 | ±4.1% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Civil Beat/Merriman River | January 18–19, 2012 | 1,358 | ±2.7% | 46% | 39% | 16% |
| Honolulu Star-Advertiser | January 26 – February 5, 2012 | 771 | ±3.5% | 57% | 37% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 16–17, 2012 | 600 | ±4.0% | 50% | 41% | 9% |
| Civil Beat/Merriman River | June 5–7, 2012 | 1,105 | ±2.9% | 49% | 44% | 5% |
| Honolulu Star-Advertiser | July 12–21, 2012 | 756 | ±3.6% | 58% | 39% | 4% |
| Civil Beat/Merriman River | September 26–28, 2012 | 1,684 | ±2.4% | 55% | 39% | 6% |
| Honolulu Star-Advertiser | October 15–22, 2012 | 786 | ±3.5% | 57% | 35% | 8% |
| Civil Beat/Merriman River | October 24–26, 2012 | 1,218 | ±2.8% | 55% | 40% | 5% |
Hypothetical polling
Democratic primary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ed Case | Colleen Hanabusa | Mufi Hannemann | Mazie Hirono | Brian Schatz | Don't Know/ Refused |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu Star-Advertiser | May 4–10, 2011 | 403 | ±4.9% | 26% | 15% | 17% | 25% | 6% | 11% |
with Duke Aiona
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ed Case (D) | Duke Aiona (R) | Undecided/Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | March 24–27, 2011 | 898 | ±3.3% | 50% | 35% | 15% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mazie Hirono (D) | Duke Aiona (R) | Undecided/Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | March 24–27, 2011 | 898 | ±3.3% | 49% | 42% | 10% |
with Colleen Hanabusa
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Colleen Hanabusa (D) | Duke Aiona (R) | Undecided/Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | March 24–27, 2011 | 898 | ±3.3% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Colleen Hanabusa (D) | Charles Djou (R) | Undecided/Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | March 24–27, 2011 | 898 | ±3.3% | 50% | 40% | 10% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Colleen Hanabusa (D) | Linda Lingle (R) | Undecided/Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | March 24–27, 2011 | 898 | ±3.3% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
| Honolulu Star-Advertiser | May 4–10, 2011 | 614 | ±4.0% | 54% | 39% | 7% |
with Charles Djou
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ed Case (D) | Charles Djou (R) | Undecided/Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | March 24–27, 2011 | 898 | ±3.3% | 53% | 35% | 12% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mazie Hirono (D) | Charles Djou (R) | Undecided/Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | March 24–27, 2011 | 898 | ±3.3% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
With Mufi Hannemann
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mufi Hannemann (D) | Charles Djou (R) | Undecided/Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | March 24–27, 2011 | 898 | ±3.3% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mufi Hannemann (D) | Duke Aiona (R) | Undecided/Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | March 24–27, 2011 | 898 | ±3.3% | 42% | 42% | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mufi Hannemann (D) | Linda Lingle (R) | Undecided/Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | March 24–27, 2011 | 898 | ±3.3% | 47% | 40% | 14% |
| Honolulu Star-Advertiser | May 4–10, 2011 | 614 | ±4.0% | 51% | 36% | 13% |
with Brian Schatz
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Brian Schatz (D) | Linda Lingle (R) | Undecided/Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu Star-Advertiser | May 4–10, 2011 | 614 | ±4.0% | 47% | 43% | 10% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ed Case (D) | John Carroll (R) | Undecided/Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | October 13–16, 2011 | 568 | ±4.1% | 60% | 21% | 18% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ed Case (D) | Linda Lingle (R) | Undecided/Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | March 24–27, 2011 | 898 | ±3.3% | 52% | 35% | 12% |
| Honolulu Star-Advertiser | May 4–10, 2011 | 614 | ±4.0% | 54% | 36% | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 13–16, 2011 | 568 | ±4.1% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Civil Beat/Merriman River | January 18–19, 2012 | 1,358 | ±2.7% | 46% | 33% | 20% |
| Honolulu Star-Advertiser | January 26 – February 5, 2012 | 771 | ±3.5% | 56% | 36% | 8% |
| Civil Beat/Merriman River | June 5–7, 2012 | 1,105 | ±2.9% | 52% | 36% | 12% |
| Honolulu Star-Advertiser | July 12–21, 2012 | 756 | ±3.6% | 56% | 38% | 6% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mazie Hirono (D) | John Carroll (R) | Undecided/Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | October 13–16, 2011 | 568 | ±4.1% | 56% | 29% | 15% |
Endorsements
Mazie Hirono (D)
U.S. representatives
- Don Young, U.S. representative from Alaska's at-large congressional district (Republican; endorsed only in the primary)
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Mazie Hirono | 269,489 | 62.60% | +1.25% | |
| Republican | Linda Lingle | 160,994 | 37.40% | +0.62% | |
| Total votes | 430,483 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
By county | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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By congressional district
Hirono won both congressional districts.
| District | Hirono | Lingle | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 59.94% | 40.06% | Colleen Hanabusa |
| 2nd | 65.24% | 34.76% | Tulsi Gabbard |
See also
- 2012 United States Senate elections
- 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Hawaii
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