2014 United States Senate election in Kansas

The 2014 United States Senate election in Kansas was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Kansas, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

2014 United States Senate election in Kansas

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Nominee Pat Roberts Greg Orman Party Republican Independent Popular vote 460,350 368,372 Percentage 53.15% 42.53%

County results Congressional district results Roberts:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90% Orman:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. senator before election Pat Roberts Republican Elected U.S. Senator Pat Roberts Republican

Incumbent Republican Senator Pat Roberts was re-elected to a fourth term against Independent Greg Orman and Libertarian nominee Randall Batson. The Democratic nominee, Chad Taylor, withdrew from the race.

Republican primary

Roberts gained negative press attention after criticism that he did not own a home in Kansas, with some comparing the situation to that of former Indiana Senator Richard Lugar, who lost a 2012 Senate primary after a similar residency controversy. Roberts owns a home in Alexandria, Virginia. The primary was held on August 5, 2014.

Primary opponent Milton R. Wolf, a radiologist, was under investigation by a state medical ethics board for posting X-ray images of dead patients with macabre commentary to Facebook.

Candidates

Declared

• Pat Roberts, incumbent senator
• D.J. Smith, former Osawatomie city councilwoman
• Milton R. Wolf, radiologist, conservative commentator and Barack Obama's second cousin
• Alvin Zahnter, truck driver and Vietnam War veteran

Declined

• Tim Huelskamp, U.S. representative (re-elected to House)
• Kris Kobach, secretary of state of Kansas (re-elected as secretary of state)
• Dennis Pyle, state senator
• Todd Tiahrt, former U.S. representative (ran for KS-04)

Endorsements

Pat Roberts

• Sam Brownback, governor of Kansas
• Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida
• Jeff Colyer, lieutenant governor of Kansas
• Bob Dole, former U.S. senator (KS-R) and nominee for president of the United States in 1996
• Ron Estes, Kansas state treasurer
• Tim Huelskamp, U.S. representative
• Lynn Jenkins, U.S. representative
• Kris Kobach, secretary of state of Kansas
• Jerry Moran, U.S. senator (KS-R)
• Sarah Palin, former governor of Alaska, 2008 Republican nominee for vice president of the United States
• Mike Pompeo, U.S. representative
• Derek Schmidt, attorney general of Kansas
• Kevin Yoder, U.S. representative

Milton Wolf

Individuals

• Jana Goodman, former state representative
• Ron Highland, state representative
• Michael Houser, state representative
• Mark Levin, host of The Mark Levin Show
• Charlotte O'Hara, former state representative
• Josh Powell, state representative
• Marty Read, state representative
• Jim Ryun, former U.S. representative

Organizations

• Flint Hills Tea Party
• Kansans for Constitutional Government
• Kansans for Constitutional Integrity
• Madison Project
• National Association for Gun Rights
• Republican Liberty Caucus
• Senate Conservatives Fund
• Southeast Kansas Conservative Group
• Tea Party Express

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Pat Roberts	D.J. Smith	Milton Wolf	Alvin Zahnter	Other	Undecided
The Tarrance Group^	January 13–15, 2014	501	± 4.5%	69%	—	15%	—	—	16%
Public Policy Polling	February 18–20, 2014	375	± 5.1%	49%	—	23%	—	—	28%
SurveyUSA	June 19–23, 2014	508	± 4.4%	56%	—	23%	—	8%	12%
GEB International	July 9, 2014	500	± 4.28%	42%	—	30%	—	—	28%
SurveyUSA	July 17–22, 2014	691	± 3.8%	50%	6%	30%	3%	—	12%
Daily Kos/Google Consumer Surveys	August 4, 2014	1,002	± 3.1%	53.4%	—	39.1%	—	—	7.5%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Pat Roberts	Someone more conservative	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 18–20, 2014	375	± 5.1%	43%	39%	18%
Public Policy Polling	February 21–24, 2013	760	± 3.6%	42%	34%	24%

• ^ Internal poll for the Pat Roberts campaign

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Pat Roberts	Tim Huelskamp	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 21–24, 2013	760	± 3.6%	53%	22%	26%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Pat Roberts	Kris Kobach	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 21–24, 2013	760	± 3.6%	55%	19%	26%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Pat Roberts	Todd Tiahrt	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 21–24, 2013	760	± 3.6%	47%	26%	27%

Results

Republican primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Pat Roberts (incumbent)	127,089	48.08%
	Republican	Milton Wolf	107,799	40.78%
	Republican	D.J. Smith	15,288	5.78%
	Republican	Alvin E. Zahnter	13,935	5.26%
Total votes			264,340	100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Chad Taylor, Shawnee County district attorney
• Patrick Wiesner, attorney and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010

Declined

• Kathleen Sebelius, former United States Secretary of Health and Human Services and former governor of Kansas

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Chad Taylor	Patrick Wiesner	Undecided
KSN News/SurveyUSA	July 17–22, 2014	322	± 5.6%	48%	17%	35%
KSN News/SurveyUSA	June 19–23, 2014	252	± 6.3%	41%	16%	43%

Results

Democratic primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Chad Taylor	35,067	53.3%
	Democratic	Patrick Wiesner	30,752	46.7%
Total votes			65,819	100.0%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

• Randall Batson, nominee for the State House in 2012

Independents

Candidates

Declared

• Greg Orman, businessman, briefly ran in the Democratic primary in 2008 before dropping out

General election

Campaign

Republicans were worried about Roberts' campaign in August 2014, perceiving it as lethargic and inactive, that Roberts had a low favorability rating, and that internal polling suggested the race was rather close. At the behest of Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell as well as former Senator Bob Dole, Roberts fired his longtime campaign manager Leroy Towns in early September 2014. Chris LaCivita was brought in to revamp the race, and LaCivita protege Corry Bliss replaced Towns as campaign manager. Bliss urged Roberts focus on a strategy of tying Orman to President Obama at every turn, as Obama had low favorability ratings in Kansas. Roberts also began spending more time in Kansas, living in a hotel in Topeka rather than his home in Alexandria, Virginia.

On September 3, Democratic nominee Chad Taylor withdrew from the race. On September 4, Kris Kobach, the Republican Kansas Secretary of State, announced that Taylor would remain on the ballot because state law demands he declare himself "incapable of fulfilling the duties of office if elected" in order to be removed, which he did not do. Taylor challenged the decision, and on September 18 the Kansas Supreme Court decided that his name would be taken off the ballot.

On the same day, Kobach demanded the chairman of the Democratic Party name a replacement in eight days, saying he would consider litigation to force the party if they refused.

A registered Democrat with family ties to Republican Governor Sam Brownback's campaign also filed a petition with the Kansas Supreme Court on September 18 to force the Democratic Party to name a new candidate. Kobach ordered ballots to be mailed to overseas voters on September 20 without a Democratic candidate, but included a disclaimer that another ballot will be sent if the Democratic Party names a replacement candidate.

The state district court in Shawnee County threw out the petition, meaning no replacement for Taylor needed to be named.

The efforts by Bliss and other Republican strategists would ultimately prove successful. Roberts' polling improved in October. Roberts defeated Orman in the general election, winning reelection to a fourth term in office.

If Orman had been elected, the U.S. Senate would have had three independent senators for the first time in the chamber's history. This—and the question of whom Orman would choose to caucus with if elected—were large questions in the electoral contest, and because the Kansas race was showing tight in the polls, a subject of considerable national political discourse as well.

Fundraising

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on Hand	Debt
Greg Orman (I)	$2,461,766	$3,298,186	$183,599	$1,124,982
Pat Roberts (R)	$5,383,491	$5,534,415	$927,449	0

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 8, 2014
• Complete video of debate, October 15, 2014

Endorsements

Greg Orman (I)

Individuals

• Tim Owens, Republican former state senator
• Jim Sherow, former mayor of Manhattan and Democratic nominee for KS-01

Organizations

• AFL-CIO
• The Centrist Project
• Human Rights Campaign
• Traditional Republicans for Common Sense
• Women for Kansas

Pat Roberts (R)

National politicians

• Bob Dole, former U.S. senator (R-KS)
• Callista Gingrich, wife of Newt Gingrich
• Newt Gingrich, former speaker of the United States House of Representatives and candidate for president in 2012
• David Keene, former chairman of the American Conservative Union and former president of the National Rifle Association of America
• Tim Huelskamp, U.S. representative (R-KS)
• Lynn Jenkins, U.S. representative (R-KS)
• Jerry Moran, U.S. senator (R-KS)
• Mike Pompeo, U.S. representative (R-KS)
• Kevin Yoder, U.S. representative (R-KS)

Kansas statewide politicians

• Sam Brownback, governor of Kansas
• Jeff Colyer, lieutenant governor of Kansas
• Ron Estes, state treasurer of Kansas
• Kris Kobach, secretary of state of Kansas
• Derek Schmidt, attorney general of Kansas
• Milton R. Wolf, radiologist, conservative commentator and Republican candidate for the seat

State senators

• Steve Abrams, state senator
• Pat Apple, state senator
• Tom Arpke, state senator
• Elaine Bowers, state senator
• Terry Bruce, state senate majority leader
• Jim Denning, state senator
• Leslie Donovan, state senator
• Jay Emler, former state senator
• Steve Fitzgerald, state senator
• Mitch Holmes, state senator
• Dan Kerschen, state senator
• Jeff King, state senate vice president
• Forrest Knox, state senator
• Jacob LaTurner, state senator
• Jeff Longbine, state senator
• Garrett Love, state senator
• Julia Lynn, state senator
• Ty Masterson, state senator
• Carolyn McGinn, state senator
• Jeff Melcher, state senator
• Michael O'Donnell, state senator
• Robert Olson, state senator
• Ralph Ostmeyer, state senator
• Mike Petersen, state senator
• Mary Pilcher-Cook, state senator
• Larry Powell, state senator
• Vicki Schmidt, state senator
• Clark Shultz, state senator
• Greg Smith, state senator
• Susan Wagle, state Ssnate president
• Kay Wolf, state senator

State representatives

• Stephen Alford, state representative
• Steve Anthimides, state representative
• John Barker, state representative
• Sue Boldra, state representative
• John Bradford, state representative
• Rob Bruchman, state representative
• Steven Brunk, state representative
• Larry Campbell, state representative
• Richard Carlson, state representative
• Will Carpenter, state representative
• Ward Cassidy, state representative
• Marshall Christmann, state representative
• J. R. Claeys, state representative
• Stephanie Clayton, state representative
• Susan Concannon, state representative
• Ken Corbet, state representative
• Travis Couture-Lovelady, state representative
• J. David Crum, state representative
• Erin Davis, state representative
• Peter DeGraaf, state representative
• Diana Dierks, state representative
• John Doll, state representative
• Willie Dove, state representative
• John Edmonds, state representative
• Joe Edwards, state representative
• Keith Esau, state representative
• Bud Estes, state representative
• John Ewy, state representative
• Blaine Finch, state representative
• Shanti Gandhi, state representative
• Mario Goico, state representative
• Daniel Hawkins, state representative
• Dennis Hedke, state representative
• Phil Hermanson, former state representative
• Larry Hibbard, state representative
• Don Hill, state representative
• Don Hineman, state representative
• Kyle Hoffman, state representative
• Jim Howell, state representative
• Steve Huebert, state representative
• Russ Jennings, state representative
• Steven Johnson, state representative
• Kevin Jones, state representative
• Mark Kahrs, state representative
• Jim Kelly, state representative
• Mike Kiegerl, state representative
• Lance Kinzer, state representative
• Marvin Kleeb, state representative
• Jerry Lunn, state representative
• Charles Macheers, state representative
• Craig McPherson, state representative
• Kelly Meigs, state representative
• Ray Merrick, state house speaker
• Robert Montgomery, former state representative
• Connie O'Brien, state representative
• Leslie Osterman, state representative
• Reid Petty, state representative
• Tom Phillips, state representative
• Richard Proehl, state representative
• Marc Rhoades, state representative
• Allan Rothlisberg, state representative
• John Rubin, state representative
• Ron Ryckman Jr., state representative
• Don Schroeder, state representative
• Scott Schwab, state representative
• Sharon Schwartz, state representative
• Joe Seiwert, state representative
• Tom Sloan, state representative
• Gene Suellentrop, state representative
• Bill Sutton, state representative
• Vern Swanson, state representative
• Jack Thimesch, state representative
• Kent Thompson, state representative
• James Todd, state representative
• Jene Vickrey, state house majority leader
• Troy Waymaster, state representative

Organizations

• American Conservative Union
• Kansans For Life
• Kansas Black Republican Council (KBRC)
• Kansas Farm Bureau
• Kansas State Rifle Association
• National Federation of Independent Business
• National Right to Life Committee
• NRA Political Victory Fund
• Tea Party Express

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean R	November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report	Tossup	November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics	Tossup	November 3, 2014

Polling

View source data.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Pat Roberts (R)	Chad Taylor (D)	Greg Orman (I)	Randall Batson (L)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 18–20, 2014	693	± 3.7%	48%	32%	—	—	—	20%
Rasmussen Reports	April 16–17, 2014	750	± 4%	50%	32%	—	—	5%	13%
SurveyUSA	June 19–23, 2014	1068	± 3.1%	43%	33%	7%	5%	—	12%
SurveyUSA	July 17–22, 2014	1,208	± 2.9%	38%	33%	14%	4%	—	10%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov	July 5–24, 2014	1,281	± 6.1%	53%	37%	—	—	7%	4%
Rasmussen Reports	August 6–7, 2014	750	± 4%	44%	40%	—	—	7%	8%
Public Policy Polling	August 14–17, 2014	903	± 3.3%	32%	25%	23%	3%	—	17%
				43%	39%	—	—	—	17%
				33%	—	43%	—	—	24%
KSN News/SurveyUSA	August 20–23, 2014	560	± 4.2%	37%	32%	20%	4%	—	6%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov	August 18 – September 2, 2014	839	± 5%	47%	35%	—	—	2%	15%
KSN News/SurveyUSA	September 4–7, 2014	555	± 4.2%	36%	10%	37%	6%	—	11%
Public Policy Polling	September 11–14, 2014	1,328	± 2.7%	34%	6%	41%	4%	—	15%
				36%	—	46%	—	—	17%
Fox News	September 14–16, 2014	604	± 4%	40%	11%	38%	4%	—	8%
				42%	—	48%	—	—	8%
Rasmussen Reports	September 16–17, 2014	750	± 4%	40%	3%	45%	—	2%	10%
				39%	9%	38%	—	2%	12%
Remington Research	September 23, 2014	625	± 3.91%	42%	—	50%	3%	—	5%
Suffolk University	September 27–30, 2014	500	± 4.4%	41.2%	—	46.4%	0.8%	—	11.6%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov	September 20 – October 1, 2014	2,013	± 3%	40%	—	40%	2%	0%	17%
NBC News/Marist	September 27 – October 1, 2014	511 LV	± 4.3%	38%	—	48%	5%	1%	9%
		848 RV	± 3.4%	36%	—	46%	5%	1%	12%
Gravis Marketing	September 30 – October 1, 2014	850	± 3%	40%	—	47%	—	—	13%
SurveyUSA	October 2–5, 2014	549	± 4.3%	42%	—	47%	4%	—	7%
CNN/ORC	October 2–6, 2014	687	± 3.5%	49%	—	48%	—	—	3%
Fox News	October 4–7, 2014	702	± 3.5%	44%	—	39%	3%	4%	12%
Rasmussen Reports	October 7–8, 2014	750	± 4%	40%	—	52%	—	4%	4%
Public Policy Polling	October 9–12, 2014	1,081	± 3%	41%	—	44%	5%	—	10%
				43%	—	46%	—	—	11%
Remington Research	October 9–12, 2014	1,091	± 2.97%	48%	—	46%	2%	—	4%
Monmouth University	October 16–19, 2014	429	± 4.7%	46%	—	46%	—	3%	5%
Rasmussen Reports	October 20–21, 2014	960	± 3%	44%	—	49%	—	3%	5%
Gravis Marketing	October 20–21, 2014	1,124	± 3%	45%	—	47%	—	—	8%
NBC News/Marist	October 18–22, 2014	757 LV	± 3.6%	44%	—	45%	4%	<1%	7%
		1,055 RV	± 3%	42%	—	45%	4%	1%	9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov	October 16–23, 2014	1,973	± 4%	42%	—	38%	1%	0%	18%
Survey USA	October 22–26, 2014	623	± 4%	42%	—	44%	4%	—	10%
Fox News	October 28–30, 2014	907	± 3%	43%	—	44%	3%	1%	8%
YouGov	October 25–31, 2014	1,137	± 4.8%	38%	—	37%	2%	2%	22%
Public Policy Polling	October 30–31, 2014	752	± ?	47%	—	46%	3%	—	4%
Public Policy Polling	November 1–3, 2014	963	± 3.2%	46%	—	47%	3%	—	4%
				47%	—	49%	—	—	3%

Hypothetical polling

With Huelskamp

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tim Huelskamp (R)	Carl Brewer (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 21–24, 2013	1,229	± 2.8%	40%	36%	—	24%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tim Huelskamp (R)	Mark Parkinson (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 21–24, 2013	1,229	± 2.8%	41%	35%	—	24%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tim Huelskamp (R)	Kathleen Sebelius (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 21–24, 2013	1,229	± 2.8%	46%	41%	—	13%

With Roberts

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Pat Roberts (R)	Carl Brewer (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 21–24, 2013	1,229	± 2.8%	50%	34%	—	16%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Pat Roberts (R)	Mark Parkinson (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 21–24, 2013	1,229	± 2.8%	49%	34%	—	17%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Pat Roberts (R)	Kathleen Sebelius (D)	Other	Undecided
Rasmussen Reports	April 16–17, 2014	750	± 4%	54%	37%	5%	4%
Public Policy Polling	February 18–20, 2014	693	± 3.7%	52%	38%	—	10%
Public Policy Polling	February 21–24, 2013	1,229	± 2.8%	51%	40%	—	9%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Pat Roberts (R)	Patrick Wiesner (D)	Randall Batson (L)	Greg Orman (I)	Other	Undecided
SurveyUSA	June 19–23, 2014	1068	± 3.1%	45%	29%	6%	8%	—	12%
SurveyUSA	July 17–22, 2014	1,208	± 2.9%	40%	27%	5%	17%	—	11%

With Wolf

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Milton Wolf (R)	Kathleen Sebelius (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 18–20, 2014	693	± 3.7%	46%	39%	—	15%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Milton Wolf (R)	Chad Taylor (D)	Randall Batson (L)	Greg Orman (I)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 18–20, 2014	693	± 3.7%	33%	32%	—	—	—	35%
SurveyUSA	June 19–23, 2014	1068	± 3.1%	33%	36%	6%	7%	—	18%
SurveyUSA	July 17–22, 2014	1,208	± 2.9%	33%	34%	5%	14%	—	14%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Milton Wolf (R)	Patrick Wiesner (D)	Randall Batson (L)	Greg Orman (I)	Other	Undecided
SurveyUSA	June 19–23, 2014	1068	± 3.1%	36%	30%	6%	8%	—	20%
SurveyUSA	July 17–22, 2014	1,208	± 2.9%	35%	28%	5%	16%	—	16%

Results

United States Senate election in Kansas, 2014

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Pat Roberts (incumbent)	460,350	53.15%	−6.91%
	Independent	Greg Orman	368,372	42.53%	N/A
	Libertarian	Randall Batson	37,469	4.32%	+2.20%
Total votes			866,191	100.00%	N/A
	Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Independent

• Douglas (largest city: Lawrence)
• Wyandotte (largest city: Kansas City)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Independent

• Shawnee (largest city: Topeka)

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Atchison (largest city: Atchison)

By congressional district

Roberts won three of four congressional districts, with Orman winning the remaining one, which elected a Republican.

District	Roberts	Orman	Representative
1st	63%	32%	Tim Huelskamp
2nd	49%	46%	Lynn Jenkins
3rd	47%	50%	Kevin Yoder
4th	54%	41%	Mike Pompeo

See also

• 2014 United States Senate elections
• 2014 United States elections
• 2014 United States House of Representatives elections in Kansas
• 2014 Kansas gubernatorial election
• 2014 Kansas elections