2014 United States Senate election in Montana

The 2014 United States Senate election in Montana took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate from Montana, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. This was one of the seven Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Mitt Romney won in the 2012 presidential election.

2014 United States Senate election in Montana

← 2008
November 4, 2014
2020 →
 
Nominee Steve Daines Amanda Curtis
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 213,709 148,184
Percentage 57.79% 40.07%

County results
Daines:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Curtis:      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. senator before election

John Walsh
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Steve Daines
Republican

Democratic Senator Max Baucus, who had announced he would retire and not seek a seventh term, resigned in February 2014 in order to accept an appointment as United States Ambassador to China under President Barack Obama. Democrat John Walsh, the Lieutenant Governor of Montana, who was already running for Baucus' seat when Baucus was named to the ambassadorship, was appointed to replace Baucus by Governor Steve Bullock.

Walsh won the Democratic primary on June 3 and ran for a first full term in office, but withdrew from the race on August 7, 2014, due to allegations that he had plagiarized a term paper while attending the Army War College. Democrats selected Amanda Curtis, a state representative from Butte, to replace Walsh as the party's nominee at a convention in Helena on August 16. Steve Daines, the incumbent U.S. Representative from Montana's at-large congressional district, easily won the Republican nomination.

Daines defeated Curtis 57.9% to 40.0%, while Libertarian Roger Roots won 2.2%. Daines and Arkansas' Tom Cotton became just the 18th and 19th U.S. House freshmen to win U.S. Senate races over the last 100 years, and just the third and fourth over the last 40 years. Daines became the first Republican to win this Senate seat since 1907, as well as the first to ever be popularly elected to the seat.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Dirk Adams, rancher, businessman and former business law professor
  • John Bohlinger, former Republican lieutenant governor of Montana
  • John Walsh, incumbent U.S. Senator, former lieutenant governor of Montana and former adjutant general of the Montana National Guard

Declined

  • Max Baucus, former U.S. senator
  • John Brueggeman, former Republican state senator
  • Steve Bullock, governor of Montana
  • Shane Colton, attorney and former commissioner of the Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks
  • Amanda Curtis, state representative
  • Melinda Gopher, writer and candidate for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2010
  • Mike Halligan, executive director of the Dennis and Phyllis Washington Foundation and former state senator
  • Denise Juneau, Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction
  • Nancy Keenan, former president of NARAL Pro-Choice America and former Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction
  • John Lewis, former state director for Senator Max Baucus (ran for the U.S. House)
  • Monica Lindeen, Montana state auditor
  • Linda McCulloch, secretary of state of Montana and former state representative
  • Mike McGrath, chief justice of the Montana Supreme Court and former attorney general of Montana
  • Brian Morris, judge of the United States District Court for the District of Montana and former associate justice of the Montana Supreme Court
  • John Morrison, former Montana state auditor and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2006
  • Stephanie Schriock, president of Emily's List and former chief of staff to Senator Jon Tester
  • Brian Schweitzer, former governor of Montana
  • Kendall Van Dyk, state senator
  • Mike Wheat, justice of the Montana Supreme Court (ran for re-election)
  • Carol Williams, former majority leader of the Montana Senate and nominee for lieutenant governor of Montana in 2000
  • Pat Williams, former U.S. representative
  • Whitney Williams, former director of operations for Hillary Clinton
  • Franke Wilmer, state representative
  • Jonathan Windy Boy, state senator

Endorsements

John Walsh

Elected officials

  • Max Baucus, former U.S. senator (D-MT)
  • Steve Bullock, governor of Montana
  • Jon Tester, U.S. senator (D-MT)

Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Walsh
Dirk
Adams
John
Bohlinger
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 15–17, 2013 381 ± 5% 39% 3% 31% 27%
Harper Polling January 20–22, 2014 519 ± 4.3% 23% 2% 23% 52%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Max
Baucus
Brian
Schweitzer
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011 333 ± 5.4% 34% 51% 14%
Public Policy Polling November 28–30, 2011 573 ± 4.1% 35% 51% 14%
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012 332 ± 5.4% 37% 48% 15%
Public Policy Polling September 10–11, 2012 201 ± 5.4% 36% 40% 24%
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 371 ± 5.1% 35% 54% 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Denise
Juneau
Brian
Schweitzer
Other Undecided
Harper Polling April 27–28, 2013 165 ± 7.63% 14% 78% 8%

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Walsh (incumbent) 48,665 64.04%
Democratic John Bohlinger 17,187 22.62%
Democratic Dirk Adams 10,139 13.34%
Total votes 75,991 100.00%

Democratic convention

Because Walsh withdrew, a nominating convention was held to pick a new nominee prior to August 20. The state party called a convention for August 16, and voting delegates were members of the State Central Committee, specifically: "one chair and one vice chair from each existing county central committee; one state committeeman and one state committeewoman from each county central committee; all voting members of the State Party Executive Board; the president of each chartered organization of the Montana Democratic Party; Montana State House leadership, and Montana State Senate leaders, and all Democrats currently holding statewide or federal office."

Candidates

Momentary buzz was created by a movement to draft actor Jeff Bridges for the nomination, with over 1,000 people signing a petition on Change.org and a Twitter account, DudeSenator, being created online. Bridges, who lives part-time and owns property in the Paradise Valley south of Livingston, Montana, declined the offer on the Howard Stern show, noting the disapproval of his wife. Other news outlets noted that he also was not registered to vote in Montana.

Potential

  • Dirk Adams, rancher, businessman and former business law professor
  • John Bohlinger, former Republican Lieutenant Governor of Montana
  • Amanda Curtis, state representative
  • Linda McCulloch, secretary of state of Montana
  • Anna Whiting Sorrell, former director of the state Department of Health and Human Services and former state director of the Indian Health Services

Withdrew

  • Franke Wilmer, state representative
  • David Wanzenried, state senator

Declined

Endorsements

Amanda Curtis

Elected officials

  • Steve Bullock, governor of Montana
  • Kirsten Gillibrand, junior U.S. senator from New York
  • Denise Juneau, Montana State Superintendent of Public Instruction
  • Monica Lindeen, Montana Commissioner of Securities & Insurance
  • Linda McCulloch, Montana secretary of state
  • Angela McLean, lieutenant governor of Montana
  • Jon Tester, senior U.S. senator from Montana
  • John Walsh, junior U.S. senator from Montana
  • Mike Wheat, Montana Supreme Court justice

Organizations

  • Democracy for America, political action committee
  • EMILY's List, political action committee
  • International Association of Firefighters, labor union
  • Montana AFL–CIO, labor union
  • Montana Conservation Voters conservation movement organization
  • Montana Education Association-Montana Federation of Teachers, labor union
  • Montana Laborers' International Union of North America, labor union
  • Montana Native Vote, Native American rights organization
  • Montana Sportsmen Alliance sportsmen and conservation organization
  • Montana State Building and Construction Trades Council, trade union
  • Montana Stonewall Democrats, LGBT rights group affiliated with the Democratic Party
  • NARAL Pro-Choice America, reproductive rights organization
  • National Organization for Women, feminist organization

Results

Democratic convention results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Amanda Curtis 82 64.0%
Democratic Dirk Adams 46 36.0%
Total votes 128 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Susan Cundiff
  • Steve Daines, U.S. Representative and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2008
  • Champ Edmunds, state representative

Withdrew

  • David Leaser, air traffic manager at Glacier Park International Airport
  • Corey Stapleton, former state senator and candidate for governor in 2012 (running for MT-AL)

Declined

  • Chuck Baldwin, Baptist pastor, radio host, Constitution Party nominee for vice president in 2004 and for president in 2008
  • John Bohlinger, former lieutenant governor of Montana (ran as a Democrat)
  • Tim Fox, attorney general of Montana
  • Rick Hill, former U.S. representative and nominee for governor in 2012
  • Krayton Kerns, state representative
  • Marc Racicot, former governor of Montana
  • Denny Rehberg, former U.S. representative, former lieutenant governor and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996 and 2012
  • Scott Reichner, state representative (ran for the state senate)
  • Matthew Rosendale, state senator (ran for the U.S. House)
  • Jon Sonju, state senator and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2012
  • Larry R. Williams, author, commodity trader and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1978 and 1982
  • Ryan Zinke, former state senator and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2012 (ran for the U.S. House)

Endorsements

Steve Daines

Elected officials

Organizations

  • Citizens Against Government Waste Political Action Committee (CCAGW PAC)
  • Gun Owners of America
  • Tea Party Express

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Daines
Champ
Edmunds
Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 15–17, 2013 469 ± 4.5% 66% 7% 27%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Daines
Champ
Edmunds
Marc
Racicot
Corey
Stapleton
Undecided
Harper Polling April 27–28, 2013 472 ± 4.51% 26% 3% 42% 6% 22%
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 340 ± 5.3% 28% 5% 47% 5% 14%

Results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Steve Daines 110,565 83.37%
Republican Susan Cundiff 11,909 8.98%
Republican Champ Edmunds 10,151 7.65%
Total votes 132,625 100.00%

Libertarian nomination

Candidates

Declared

  • Roger Roots, nominee for secretary of state of Montana in 2012

Independents

Candidates

Declined

  • John Bohlinger, former lieutenant governor of Montana (ran as a Democrat)
  • Sam Rankin, real estate broker (did not qualify)

General election

Debates

  • Complete video of debate, October 20, 2014

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report Solid R (flip) November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R (flip) November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report Safe R (flip) November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics Safe R (flip) November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Daines (R)
Amanda
Curtis (D)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports August 18–19, 2014 750 ± 4% 55% 35% 2% 8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 2014 684 ± 5% 53% 35% 1% 11%
Gravis Marketing September 29–30, 2014 535 ± 4% 54% 41% 5%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 2014 549 ± 5% 55% 34% 0% 10%
The MSU-Billings Poll October 6–11, 2014 410 ± 5% 47% 31% 2% 21%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 497 ± 6% 56% 38% 0% 6%
Gravis Marketing October 23–24, 2014 604 ± 4% 53% 39% 8%
Hypothetical polling

With Adams

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Dirk
Adams (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
Other Undecided
Harper Polling January 20–22, 2014 519 ± 4.3% 20% 44% 36%

with Baucus

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Max
Baucus (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 44% 49% 7%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Max
Baucus (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 47% 37% 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Max
Baucus (D)
Tim
Fox (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 46% 43% 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Max
Baucus (D)
Marc
Racicot (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 42% 47% 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Max
Baucus (D)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 45% 38% 16%

With Bohlinger

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Bohlinger (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 15–17, 2013 952 ± 3.2% 36% 51% 13%
Harper Polling January 20–22, 2014 519 ± 4.3% 32% 43% 25%
Harper Polling April 7–8, 2014 604 ± 4.3% 33% 44% 23%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Bohlinger (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 15–17, 2013 952 ± 3.2% 37% 39% 24%

With Juneau

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Denise
Juneau (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% 38% 48% 13%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Denise
Juneau (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% 41% 34% 25%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Denise
Juneau (D)
Marc
Racicot (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% 37% 52% 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Denise
Juneau (D)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% 42% 38% 21%

With Keenan

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Nancy
Keenan (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 39% 49% 12%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Nancy
Keenan (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 41% 36% 23%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Nancy
Keenan (D)
Tim
Fox (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 40% 45% 15%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Nancy
Keenan (D)
Marc
Racicot (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 38% 50% 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Nancy
Keenan (D)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 40% 40% 20%

With Lindeen

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Monica
Lindeen (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% 37% 49% 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Monica
Lindeen (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% 39% 34% 26%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Monica
Lindeen (D)
Marc
Racicot (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% 35% 52% 13%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Monica
Lindeen (D)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% 39% 37% 24%

With Schweitzer

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Brian
Schweitzer (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 48% 45% 7%
Harper Polling April 27–28, 2013 771 ± 3.53% 50% 40% 10%
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% 48% 45% 7%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Brian
Schweitzer (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 52% 37% 12%
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% 52% 37% 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Brian
Schweitzer (D)
Tim
Fox (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 49% 43% 8%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Brian
Schweitzer (D)
Marc
Racicot (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 45% 46% 9%
Harper Polling April 27–28, 2013 771 ± 3.53% 47% 43% 10%
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% 46% 47% 6%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Brian
Schweitzer (D)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013 1,011 ± 3.1% 49% 39% 13%
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013 807 ± 3.4% 52% 38% 10%

With Walsh

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Walsh (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 15–17, 2013 952 ± 3.2% 35% 52% 13%
Harper Polling January 20–22, 2014 519 ± 4.3% 29% 43% 28%
Rasmussen Reports March 17–18, 2014 750 ± 4% 37% 51% 4% 9%
Magellan Strategies April 1–2, 2014 2,490 ± 1.96% 36% 49% 9% 6%
Harper Polling April 7–8, 2014 604 ± 4.3% 35% 42% 23%
Hickman Analytics April 24–30, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 37% 49% 14%
Vox Populi Polling May 21–22, 2014 806 ± 3.5% 33% 56% 11%
Magellan Strategies June 4–5, 2014 761 ± 3.57% 39% 55% 6%
Rasmussen Reports June 9–10, 2014 750 ± 4% 35% 53% 3% 9%
Public Policy Polling July 17–18, 2014 574 ± 4.1% 39% 46% 15%
Gravis Marketing July 20–22, 2014 741 ± 4% 41% 45% 6% 7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 838 ± 3.6% 39% 55% 2% 4%
Gravis Marketing July 24, 2014 781 ± 3.5% 38% 45% 9% 8%
Vox Populi Polling August 3–4, 2014 798 ± 3.5% 34% 47% 18%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Walsh (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 15–17, 2013 952 ± 3.2% 36% 38% 26%

Results

United States Senate election in Montana, 2014
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Steve Daines 213,709 57.79% +30.71%
Democratic Amanda Curtis 148,184 40.07% −32.85%
Libertarian Roger Roots 7,933 2.14% N/A
Total votes 369,826 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

  • Beaverhead (largest city: Dillon)
  • Broadwater (largest city: Townsend)
  • Carbon (largest city: Red Lodge)
  • Carter (largest city: Ekalaka)
  • Cascade (largest city: Great Falls)
  • Custer (largest city: Miles City)
  • Daniels (largest city: Scobey)
  • Fallon (largest city: Baker)
  • Fergus (largest city: Lewistown)
  • Flathead (largest city: Kalispell)
  • Garfield (largest city: Jordan)
  • Golden Valley (largest city: Ryegate)
  • Granite (largest city: Philipsburg)
  • Hill (largest city: Havre)
  • Jefferson (largest city: Clancy)
  • Judith Basin (largest city: Stanford)
  • Lewis and Clark (largest city: Helena)
  • Liberty (largest city: Chester)
  • Lincoln (largest city: Libby)
  • Madison (largest city: Ennis)
  • McCone (largest city: Circle)
  • Meagher (largest city: White Sulphur Springs)
  • Musselshell (largest city: Roundup)
  • Park (largest city: Livingston)
  • Petroleum (largest city: Winnett)
  • Phillips (largest city: Malta)
  • Pondera (largest city: Conrad)
  • Powder River (largest city: Broadus)
  • Powell (largest city: Deer Lodge)
  • Prairie (largest city: Terry)
  • Ravalli (largest city: Hamilton)
  • Richland (largest city: Sidney)
  • Rosebud (largest city: Colstrip)
  • Roosevelt (largest city: Wolf Point)
  • Dawson (largest city: Glendive)
  • Mineral (largest city: Superior)
  • Sheridan (largest city: Plentywood)
  • Gallatin (largest city: Bozeman)
  • Lake (largest city: Polson)
  • Chouteau (largest municipality: Fort Benton)
  • Yellowstone (largest municipality: Billings)
  • Sanders (largest city: Thompson Falls)
  • Stillwater (largest city: Columbus)
  • Sweet Grass (largest city: Big Timber)
  • Teton (largest city: Choteau)
  • Toole (largest city: Shelby)
  • Treasure (largest city: Hysham)
  • Valley (largest city: Glasgow)
  • Wheatland (largest city: Harlowton)
  • Wibaux (largest city: Wibaux)

See also

wikipedia, wiki, encyclopedia, book, library, article, read, free download, Information about 2014 United States Senate election in Montana, What is 2014 United States Senate election in Montana? What does 2014 United States Senate election in Montana mean?