The 2016 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 8, 2016 to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Florida, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primary elections for both the Republicans and Democrats took place on August 30, 2016.
November 8, 2016 | |||||||||||||||||
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Rubio: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Murphy: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio ran for another term, but faced well-funded Republican primary opposition after initially announcing he would not seek re-election to his Senate seat. He had openly considered whether to seek re-election or run for president in 2016. He stated in April 2014 that he would not run for both the Senate and president in 2016, as Florida law prohibits a candidate from simultaneously appearing twice on a ballot, but did not rule out running for either office.
However, in April 2015, Rubio announced that he was running for president and would not seek re-election. He had initially said he would not run for re-election to the Senate even if he dropped out of the GOP presidential primary before he would have to qualify for the 2016 Senate primary ballot, for which the filing deadline was June 24, 2016.
On June 13, 2016, despite his previous statements that he would not run for re-election to his Senate seat, Rubio "seemed to open the door to running for re-election," citing the previous day's mass shooting in Orlando and how "it really gives you pause, to think a little bit about your service to your country and where you can be most useful to your country." On June 22, 2016, Rubio announced that he would seek re-election to the Senate, reversing his pledge not to run.
On August 30, the Republican Party nominated Marco Rubio, and the Democratic Party nominated Representative Patrick Murphy. Rubio won with the largest raw vote total in Florida history (until Donald Trump broke the record in 2020), taking a greater percentage of the popular vote than Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, who won the state in the election. He is the first Republican Senator from Florida since 1994, and only the second with Connie Mack, to be reelected to a second term. Also, Mel Martinez's victory in 2004 marks the first time that Republicans had won one of Florida's Senate seats three times in a row (Mack succeeded Lawton Chiles, a Democrat, and was succeeded by another Democrat, Bill Nelson).
Marco Rubio won 48% of the Hispanic vote and 17% of the African American vote during this election, at the time considered an exceptional number for a Republican during a presidential year. Additionally, Rubio's raw vote total was the highest vote total for any Republican Senate candidate up until Texas Senator John Cornyn broke it in 2020.
Rubio would later win by a larger 16.4% margin in 2022, including winning a majority of Hispanic voters in Florida.
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Carlos Beruff, real estate developer and chair of the Florida Commission on Healthcare and Hospital Funding
- Ernie Rivera, businessman
- Marco Rubio, incumbent U.S. senator
- Dwight Young, Pinellas County sheriff's deputy
Withdrawn
- Ron DeSantis, U.S. representative (ran for reelection)
- Mary Elisabeth Godwin, pastor
- David Jolly, U.S. representative (ran for reelection)
- Carlos Lopez-Cantera, lieutenant governor of Florida
- Todd Wilcox, businessman and former CIA case officer
Declined
- Jeff Atwater, chief financial officer of Florida
- Rick Baker, former mayor of St. Petersburg
- Pam Bondi, Florida attorney general
- Dan Bongino, radio host, former Secret Service agent, and nominee for the U.S. Senate from Maryland in 2012 and for MD-06 in 2014 (running for FL-19)
- Vern Buchanan, U.S. representative (ran for reelection)
- Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon and former candidate for president in 2016
- Curt Clawson, U.S. representative
- Randy Fine, businessman
- Anitere Flores, state senator (ran for reelection)
- Don Gaetz, state senator and former state senate president
- Mike Haridopolos, former president of the Florida Senate and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012
- George LeMieux, former U.S. senator
- Connie Mack IV, former U.S. representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012
- Bill McCollum, former Florida attorney general, former U.S. representative, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2000, candidate in 2004 and candidate for governor in 2010
- John Mica, U.S. representative (ran for reelection)
- Jeff Miller, U.S. representative
- Adam Putnam, Florida Commissioner of Agriculture and former U.S. representative
- Francis Rooney, former United States Ambassador to the Holy See (ran for U.S. House)
- Tom Rooney, U.S. representative (ran for reelection)
- Dennis A. Ross, U.S. representative (ran for reelection)
- Joe Scarborough, cable news personality and former U.S. representative
- Will Weatherford, former speaker of the Florida House of Representatives
- Daniel Webster, U.S. representative
- Allen West, former U.S. representative
- Ted Yoho, U.S. representative (ran for reelection)
Endorsements
Ron DeSantis (withdrew)
Individuals
- Marsha Blackburn, U.S. representative (TN-07)
- John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations
- Dan Bongino, former U.S. Secret Service agent and U.S. House and Senate candidate
- Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon and former candidate for President in 2016
- Jim France, NASCAR executive
- Trey Gowdy, U.S. representative (SC-4)
- Sean Jackson, chairman of the Black Republican Caucus of South Florida
- Mike Lee, U.S. senator from Utah
- Bob Martinez, former Florida governor
- John Rood, former U.S. ambassador
- Francis Rooney, former U.S. ambassador to the Vatican
- Tom Rooney, U.S. representative (FL-17)
Organizations
- Citizens United
- Club for Growth
- Combat Veterans for Congress
- Conservative HQ
- Family Research Council
- FreedomWorks
- Madison Project PAC
- Senate Conservatives Fund
- Support and Defend PAC
- Tea Party Express
David Jolly (withdrew)
Individuals
- Gus Bilirakis, U.S. representative (FL-12)
- Rich Nugent, U.S. representative (FL-11)
- Dennis A. Ross, U.S. representative (FL-15)
Carlos López-Cantera (withdrew)
Statewide officials
- Pam Bondi, attorney general of Florida
State legislators
- Ben Albritton, state representative
- Frank Artiles, state representative
- Bryan Avila, state representative
- Dennis K. Baxley, state representative
- Halsey Beshears, state representative
- Michael Bileca, state representative
- Jim Boyd, state representative
- Jason Brodeur, state representative
- Matt Caldwell, state representative
- Bob Cortes, state representative
- José Félix Díaz, state representative
- Manny Díaz, Jr., state representative
- Miguel Diaz de la Portilla, state senator
- Brad Drake, state representative
- Dane Eagle, state representative
- Heather Fitzenhagen, state representative
- Anitere Flores, state senator
- Erik Fresen, state representative
- Bill Galvano, state senate majority leader
- Rene Garcia, state senator
- Julio Gonzalez, state representative
- Tom Goodson, state representative
- Clay Ingram, state representative
- Mike La Rosa, state representative
- MaryLynn Magar, state representative
- George Moraitis, state representative
- Jeanette Nuñez, state representative
- H. Marlene O'Toole, state representative
- José R. Oliva, state representative
- Kathleen Passidomo, state representative
- Keith Perry, state representative
- Ray Pilon, state representative
- Scott Plakon, state representative
- Rene Plasencia, state representative
- Elizabeth W. Porter, state representative
- Holly Merrill Raschein, state representative
- Ken Roberson, state representative
- David Santiago, state representative
- Jimmie Todd Smith, state representative
- Carlos Trujillo, state representative
- Ritch Workman, state representative
Mayors and other municipal leaders
- Sam Newby, Jacksonville city councilman
Marco Rubio
Presidents of the United States
- George W. Bush, 43rd president of The United States
Governors
- Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida and 2016 presidential candidate
- Bill Haslam, governor of Tennessee
- Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas and 2016 presidential candidate
- John Kasich, governor of Ohio and 2016 presidential candidate
- George Pataki, former governor of New York and 2016 presidential candidate
- Mike Pence, governor of Indiana and 2016 vice presidential nominee
- Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts and 2012 Republican presidential nominee
U.S. senators
- John Cornyn, U.S. senator from Texas and Senate Majority Whip
- Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas and 2016 presidential candidate
- Lindsey Graham, U.S. senator from South Carolina and 2016 presidential candidate
- Mike Lee, U.S. senator from Utah
- Mitch McConnell, U.S. senator from Kentucky and Senate majority leader
- Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania, 2012 presidential candidate and 2016 presidential candidate
U.S. representatives
- Paul Ryan, U.S. representative from Wisconsin and speaker of the United States House of Representatives
Individuals
- John Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations
- Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, 2010 Republican nominee for Senate in California, and 2016 presidential candidate
- Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House of Representatives and 2012 presidential candidate
- Sean Hannity, conservative talk radio host and host of Hannity
- Evan McMullin, former chief policy director for the House Republican Conference in the U.S. House of Representatives, former CIA operations officer and 2016 independent candidate for president
- Reince Priebus, Republican National Committee chairman
- Donald Trump, chairman and CEO of the Trump Organization and 2016 presidential nominee
Organizations
- American Conservative Union
- Club for Growth
- FreedomWorks
- United States Chamber of Commerce
Statewide officials
- Carlos López-Cantera, lieutenant governor of Florida and former 2016 U.S. Senate candidate in Florida
Newspaper editorial boards
- Miami Herald
- Orlando Sentinel
Declined to endorse
- Rick Scott, governor of Florida
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Carlos Beruff | Ron DeSantis | David Jolly | Ilya Katz | Carlos López-Cantera | Marco Rubio | Todd Wilcox | Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon | August 22–24, 2016 | 400 | ± 5% | 22% | — | — | — | — | 61% | — | 15% |
| Florida Atlantic University | August 19–22, 2016 | 327 | ± 5.4% | 8% | — | — | — | — | 69% | 5% | 15% |
| Florida Chamber of Commerce | August 17–22, 2016 | 249 | ± 4.0% | 19% | — | — | — | — | 68% | — | 10% |
| St. Leo University | August 14–18, 2016 | 479 | ± 4.5% | 14% | — | — | — | — | 68% | — | 18% |
| Suffolk University | August 1–3, 2016 | 183 | ± 4.4% | 12% | – | – | – | – | 62% | – | 26% |
| St. Pete Polls | August 2, 2016 | 1,835 | ± 2.3% | 22% | – | – | – | – | 55% | – | 23% |
| Bay News 9/SurveyUSA | June 25–27, 2016 | 555 | ± 4.1% | 11% | – | – | – | – | 63% | – | 13% |
| Vox Populi Polling (R) | June 19–20, 2016 | 487 | ± 4.4% | 5% | – | – | – | – | 57% | 4% | 34% |
| St. Leo University | June 10–16, 2016 | 500 | ± 7% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 52% | 2% | 27% |
| 8% | 8% | 8% | 2% | 9% | – | 5% | 57% | ||||
| Mason-Dixon | May 31–June 2, 2016 | 400 | ± 5% | 17% | 10% | 13% | – | 9% | – | 2% | 49% |
| News 13/Bay News 9 | March 4–6, 2016 | 724 | ± 3.7% | 1% | 11% | 18% | 4% | 9% | – | 7% | 50% |
| Washington Post/Univision | March 2–5, 2016 | 450 | ± 5.5% | 0% | 6% | 5% | – | 6% | – | 2% | 81% |
| Public Policy Polling | February 24–25, 2016 | 464 | ± 4.6% | – | 14% | 26% | – | 11% | – | 2% | 47% |
| Florida Atlantic University College of Business | January 15–18, 2016 | 345 | ± 5.2% | – | 8% | 28% | – | 8% | – | – | 57% |
| St. Pete Polls/Saint Petersblog | December 14–15, 2015 | 2,694 | ± 1.9% | – | 18% | 21% | – | 10% | – | 8% | 44% |
| St. Leo University | November 29 – December 3, 2015 | 147 | ± 8% | – | 6% | 12% | 4% | 8% | – | 7% | 63% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 11–13, 2015 | 377 | ± 5.1% | – | 15% | 18% | – | 14% | – | – | 52% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Vern Buchanan | Ben Carson | Ron DeSantis | Don Gaetz | David Jolly | George LeMieux | Carlos López-Cantera | Bill McCollum | Jeff Miller | Tom Rooney | Todd Wilcox | Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| News 13/Bay News 9 | March 4–6, 2016 | 724 | ± 3.7% | – | 56% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 44% |
| Mason-Dixon | July 20–24, 2015 | 500 | ± 4.5% | – | – | 8% | – | 11% | – | 7% | 22% | 6% | – | 1% | 45% |
| – | – | 9% | – | 16% | – | 10% | – | 8% | – | 2% | 55% | ||||
| St. Pete Polls | July 15, 2015 | 1,074 | ± 3.0% | – | — | 9% | — | 22% | — | 11% | — | 12% | — | – | 46% |
| Gravis Marketing | June 16—20, 2015 | 729 | ± 3.6% | – | — | 16% | — | — | — | 7% | 25% | 6% | — | – | 46% |
| St. Leo University | May 25–31, 2015 | 425 | ± 4.5% | – | — | 6% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 16% | 8% | — | – | 43% |
| Mason-Dixon | Apr. 14–16, 2015 | 425 | ± 4.8% | 7% | – | 4% | 1% | 8% | 3% | 4% | 20% | — | 5% | – | 48% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jeff Atwater | Pam Bondi | Carlos López-Cantera | Adam Putnam | Allen West | Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | March 19–22, 2015 | 425 | ± 4.8% | 12% | 25% | 8% | — | 38% | 18% |
| 41% | — | 15% | — | — | 43% | ||||
| Gravis Marketing | February 24–25, 2015 | 513 | ± 4% | 9% | 36% | — | 12% | — | 43% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 4–7, 2014 | 818 | ± 3.4% | 17% | 38% | — | 16% | — | 29% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Marco Rubio (incumbent) | 1,029,830 | 71.99% | |
| Republican | Carlos Beruff | 264,427 | 18.49% | |
| Republican | Dwight Young | 91,082 | 6.37% | |
| Republican | Ernie Rivera | 45,153 | 3.16% | |
| Total votes | 1,430,492 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Rocky De La Fuente, businessman, candidate for president in 2016, and American Delta Party and Reform Party nominee for president in 2016
- Alan Grayson, U.S. representative
- Pam Keith, attorney, former judge advocate in the U.S. Navy, and daughter of former Ambassador Kenton Keith
- Reginald Luster, attorney
- Patrick Murphy, U.S. representative
Withdrawn
- Lateresa Jones, life coach and independent candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014 (running as an Independent)
Declined
- Bob Buckhorn, mayor of Tampa
- Kathy Castor, U.S. representative
- Charlie Crist, former Republican governor of Florida, independent candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and Democratic nominee for governor in 2014 (running for the U.S. House of Representatives)
- Ted Deutch, U.S. representative (running for re-election)
- Buddy Dyer, mayor of Orlando
- Dan Gelber, former minority leader of the Florida House of Representatives, former state senator and nominee for Florida attorney general in 2010
- Andrew Gillum, mayor of Tallahassee
- Philip Levine, mayor of Miami Beach
- Debbie Wasserman Schultz, U.S. representative and former chair of the Democratic National Committee (running for re-election)
Endorsements
Alan Grayson
Politicians
- Dennis Kucinich, former U.S. representative from Ohio's 10th District and presidential candidate in 2004 & 2008
Individuals
- Jane Kleeb, executive director of BOLD Nebraska
- Carl Pope, former executive director of Sierra Club
Labor unions
- CWA – Communications Workers of America
Organizations
- People for the American Way
- Progressive Democrats of America Florida Chapter
Pam Keith
Newspaper editorial boards
- Miami Herald
Patrick Murphy
Presidents
- Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States
Vice presidents
- Joe Biden, 47th vice president of the United States
U.S. cabinet members and cabinet-level officials
- Hillary Clinton, 67th United States secretary of state, 2008 presidential candidate and 2016 presidential nominee
U.S. senators
- Cory Booker, New Jersey
- Sherrod Brown, Ohio
- Bob Casey, Pennsylvania
- Al Franken, Minnesota
- Bob Graham, Florida (former United States senator; and former governor of Florida)
- Martin Heinrich, New Mexico
- Tim Kaine, Virginia
- Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota
- Claire McCaskill, Missouri
- Chris Murphy, Connecticut
- Bill Nelson, Florida
- Harry Reid, Nevada
- Brian Schatz, Hawaii
- Chuck Schumer, New York
- Jon Tester, Montana
- Sheldon Whitehouse, Rhode Island
U.S. representatives
- Pete Aguilar, California
- Joyce Beatty, Ohio
- Don Beyer, Virginia
- John Carney, Delaware
- Andre Carson, Indiana
- David Cicilline, Rhode Island
- Katherine Clark, Massachusetts
- Bonnie Watson Coleman, New Jersey
- Gerry Connolly, Virginia
- Joe Crowley, New York
- John Delaney, Maryland
- Ted Deutch, Florida
- Elizabeth Esty, Connecticut
- Barney Frank, Massachusetts (former)
- Lois Frankel, Florida
- Marcia Fudge, Ohio
- Tulsi Gabbard, Hawaii
- Michelle Lujan Grisham, New Mexico
- Janice Hahn, California
- Alcee Hastings, Florida
- Denny Heck, Washington
- Jim Himes, Connecticut
- Jared Huffman, California
- Steve Israel, New York
- Bill Keating, Massachusetts
- Dan Kildee, Michigan
- Derek Kilmer, Washington
- Annie Kuster, New Hampshire
- Carolyn Maloney, New York
- Sean Patrick Maloney, New York
- Jerry McNerney, California
- Grace Meng, New York
- Seth Moulton, Massachusetts
- Beto O'Rourke, Texas
- Bill Pascrell, New Jersey
- Donald Payne, Jr., New Jersey
- Ed Perlmutter, Colorado
- Scott Peters, California
- Kathleen Rice, New York
- Cedric Richmond, Louisiana
- Raul Ruiz, California
- Jan Schakowsky, Illinois
- Terri Sewell, Alabama
- Kyrsten Sinema, Arizona
- Jackie Speier, California
- Eric Swalwell, California
- Mark Takano, California
- Juan Vargas, California
- Marc Veasey, Texas
- Filemon Vela, Texas
- Frederica Wilson, Florida
Statewide officials
- Charlie Crist, former Republican governor of Florida, Independent candidate for U.S. Senate in 2010 and Democratic nominee for governor in 2014
- Nan Rich, former state senator and Democratic candidate for governor in 2014
- Alex Sink, former chief financial officer of Florida, nominee for governor in 2010 and nominee for Florida's 13th congressional district in 2014
State legislators
- Joseph Abruzzo, state senator (D-Wellington)
- Bruce Antone, state representative (D-Orlando)
- Lori Berman, state representative (D-Lantana)
- Jeff Clemens, state senator (D-Lake Worth)
- Janet Cruz, state representative (D-Tampa)
- Dwight Dudley, state representative (D-St. Petersburg)
- Katie Edwards, state representative (D-Plantation)
- Reggie Fullwood, state representative (D-Jacksonville)
- Joe Geller, state representative (D-Aventura)
- Audrey Gibson, state senator (D-Jacksonville)
- Kristin Jacobs, state representative (D-Pompano Beach)
- Evan Jenne, state representative (D-Hollywood)
- Mia L. Jones, state representative (D-Tallahassee)
- Shevrin D. Jones, state representative (D-West Park)
- Dave Kerner, state representative (D-Lake Worth)
- Larry Lee, Jr., state representative (D-Port St. Lucie)
- Gwen Margolis, state senator (D-Miami Beach)
- Jared Moskowitz, state representative (D-Coral Springs)
- Amanda Murphy, state representative (D-New Port Richey)
- Ed Narain, state representative (D-Tampa)
- Bobby Powell, state representative (D-Riviera Beach)
- Kevin Rader, state representative (D-Delray Beach)
- Jeremy Ring, state senator (D-Parkland)
- Jose Javier Rodriguez, state representative (D-Miami)
- Irving Slosberg, state representative (D-Boca Raton)
- Chris Smith, state senator (D-Fort Lauderdale)
- Eleanor Sobel, state senator (D-Hollywood)
- Cynthia Stafford, state representative (D-Miami)
- Richard Stark, state representative (D-Weston)
- Dwayne L. Taylor, state representative (D-Daytona Beach)
- Alan Williams, state representative (D-Tallahassee)
Mayors and other municipal leaders
- Burt Aaronson, former Palm Beach County commissioner
- Peggy Bell, mayor of Cutler Bay
- Diane Veltri Bendekovic, mayor of Plantation
- Mark Bogen, Broward County commissioner
- Bob Buckhorn, mayor of Tampa
- Skip Campbell, mayor of Coral Springs
- William Capote, mayor of Palm Bay
- Joyce Cusack, Volusia County councilwoman
- Harry Dressler, mayor of Tamarac
- Beam Furr, Broward County commissioner
- Andrew Gillum, mayor of Tallahassee
- Cary Glickstein, mayor of Delray Beach
- Derrick Henry, mayor of Daytona Beach
- Dale Holness, Broward County commissioner
- Scott Israel, Broward County sheriff
- Eric Jablin, mayor of Palm Beach Gardens
- Richard Kaplan, mayor of Lauderhill
- Marty Kiar, Broward County commissioner
- Rick Kriseman, mayor of St. Petersburg
- Bob Margolis, mayor of Wellington
- Wayne Messam, mayor of Miramar
- Jeri Muoio, mayor of West Palm Beach
- Ben Nelson, Jr., mayor of Bonita Springs
- Frank Ortis, mayor of Pembroke Pines
- Lori Parrish, Broward County property appraiser
- Michael Ryan, mayor of Sunrise
- Tim M. Ryan, mayor of Broward County
- Jack Seiler, mayor of Fort Lauderdale
- Becky Tooley, mayor of Coconut Creek
- Shelley Vana, mayor of Palm Beach County and former state representative
Labor unions
- AFGE – American Federation of Government Employees
- AFSCME – American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees
- IAM – International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers
- IBT – International Brotherhood of Teamsters
- International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental and Reinforcing Iron Workers
- LIUNA – Laborers' International Union of North America
- SEIU – Service Employees International Union
- UBC – United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America
Organizations
- Congressional Black Caucus
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
- End Citizens United
- Florida Alliance for Retired Americans
- League of Conservation Voters
- NARAL Pro-Choice America
- Planned Parenthood
Newspaper editorial boards
- Orlando Sentinel
- Sun-Sentinel
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Alan Grayson | Pam Keith | Lateresa Jones | Patrick Murphy | Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon | August 22–24, 2016 | 400 | ± 5% | 22% | 4% | — | 55% | 19% |
| Florida Atlantic University | August 19–22, 2016 | 364 | 8% | 7% | — | 54% | 22% | |
| Florida Chamber of Commerce | August 17–22, 2016 | 258 | ± 4.0% | 11% | — | — | 40% | 38% |
| St. Leo University | August 14–18, 2016 | 532 | ± 4.5% | 17% | 8% | — | 48% | 27% |
| Suffolk University | August 1–3, 2016 | 194 | ± 4.4% | 17% | 2% | – | 36% | 45% |
| St. Pete Polls | August 2, 2016 | 1,807 | ± 2.3% | 20% | 7% | – | 45% | 28% |
| Bay News 9/SurveyUSA | June 25–27, 2016 | 618 | ± 4.0% | 21% | 10% | – | 30% | 35% |
| Vox Populi Polling (R) | June 19–20, 2016 | 530 | ± 4.3% | 15% | 5% | – | 19% | 62% |
| Targeted Persuasion | June 14–16, 2016 | 862 | ± 3.34% | 30% | 5% | – | 27% | 38% |
| St. Leo University | June 10–16, 2016 | 500 | ± 7% | 14% | 3% | 4% | 16% | 61% |
| Mason-Dixon | May 31–June 2, 2016 | 400 | ± 5% | 23% | 3% | – | 31% | 43% |
| Public Policy Polling | March 22–23, 2016 | 829 | ? | 33% | – | – | 32% | 35% |
| St. Leo University | March 13–17, 2016 | 540 | ± 5% | 17% | – | – | 20% | 63% |
| Mason-Dixon | March 7–9, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 19% | – | – | 33% | 48% |
| SurveyUSA | March 4–6, 2016 | 592 | ± 4.1% | 16% | 11% | – | 27% | 46% |
| Bendixon & Amandi/The Tarrance Group | March 2–5, 2016 | 449 | ± 6% | 19% | – | – | 27% | 54% |
| Univision | March 2–5, 2016 | 449 | ± 6% | 29% | – | – | 36% | 35% |
| Public Policy Polling | February 24–25, 2016 | 388 | ± 5% | 33% | – | – | 22% | 45% |
| 20/20 Insight LLC* | ~February 16–18, 2016 | 646 | ± 3.9% | 41% | – | – | 32% | 27% |
| Florida Atlantic University College of Business | January 15–18, 2016 | 371 | ± 5% | 27% | – | – | 20% | 53% |
| St. Leo University | November 29–December 3, 2015 | 160 | ± 7.5% | 7% | 4% | 6% | 17% | 55% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 11–13, 2015 | 368 | ± 5.1% | 33% | – | – | 27% | 39% |
| Mason-Dixon | July 20–24, 2015 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 24% | – | – | 26% | 50% |
| 33% | – | – | 32% | 35% | ||||
| St. Pete Polls | July 15, 2015 | 1,018 | ± 3.1% | 30% | 8% | – | 23% | 39% |
| Gravis Marketing | June 16–20, 2015 | 881 | ± 3.3% | 63% | – | – | 19% | 18% |
| Vox Populi Polling (R) | June 15–17, 2015 | 717 | ± 3.7% | 24% | – | – | 34% | 42% |
| St. Leo University | May 25–31, 2015 | 535 | ± 4.5% | 24% | — | – | 27% | 49% |
| Mason-Dixon | April 14–16, 2015 | 400 | ± 5% | 14% | – | – | 23% | 63% |
| Public Policy Polling | March 19–22, 2015 | 371 | ± 5.1% | 22% | – | – | 21% | 56% |
- * Internal poll for Alan Grayson
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Patrick Murphy | 665,985 | 58.92% | |
| Democratic | Alan Grayson | 199,929 | 17.72% | |
| Democratic | Pam Keith | 173,919 | 15.40% | |
| Democratic | Rocky De La Fuente | 60,810 | 5.38% | |
| Democratic | Reginald Luster | 29,138 | 2.58% | |
| Total votes | 1,129,781 | 100.00% | ||
Libertarian primary
On October 1, 2015, Adrian Wyllie and Lynn House, chair and vice chair, respectively, of the Libertarian Party of Florida, resigned their seats in protest after the executive committee refused to oust candidate Augustus Invictus from the party. According to Wyllie, Invictus had defended eugenics, called for a new civil war, and brutally slaughtered a goat, and is not representative of the Libertarian Party. Invictus has refuted these claims, calling Wyllie's accusations "deliberate misrepresentation[s]."
Candidates
Declared
- Augustus S. Invictus, attorney
- Paul Stanton, IT technician and U.S. Army veteran
Declined
- Roger Stone, political consultant, lobbyist and strategist
Endorsements
Paul Stanton
Individuals
- Will Coley, activist, radio host, and former vice presidential candidate
- Marc Allan Feldman, physician and former presidential candidate
- Jim Gray, author, former judge and Libertarian vice presidential nominee in 2012
- Thomas Knapp, writer, founder of the Boston Tea Party (political party), and former Reform Party vice presidential candidate
- Gary Johnson, former governor of New Mexico and Libertarian nominee for president in 2016
- John McAfee, CEO of MGT Capital Investments Inc, founder of McAfee Inc and former presidential candidate
- Kevin McCormick, former presidential candidate
- Richard Molek, chair of the Libertarian Party of Lee County
- Darryl W. Perry, activist, author, radio host, lobbyist, former presidential candidate and former chairman of the Boston Tea Party (political party)
- William Weld, former governor of Massachusetts and Libertarian nominee for vice president in 2016
Libertarian Party of Florida affiliates
- Libertarian Party of Broward County
- Libertarian Party of Collier County
- Libertarian Party of Palm Beach County
- Libertarian Party of Pinellas County
- Libertarian Party of Santa Rosa County
- Libertarian Party of Volusia County
- Northwest Florida Libertarian Party
Organizations
- Eastern Liberty Alliance PAC
- Ninjas for Liberty PAC
Augustus Sol Invictus
Individuals
- Keon A. Grayson, North Central, Miami-Dade County Community councilman
- Steve Scheetz, former chair of the Pennsylvania Libertarian Party
- Bill Wohlsifer, former candidate for Florida attorney general
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Paul Stanton | 2,946 | 73.48% | |
| Libertarian | Augustus Sol Invictus | 1,063 | 26.52% | |
| Total votes | 4,009 | 100.00% | ||
Independent
Candidates
Declared
- Basil Dalack, attorney and former Tequesta village councilman
- Lateresa Jones, life coach and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014
- Anton "Tony" Khoury, businessman
- Steven Machat, music producer
- Bruce Nathan, physical therapist
No party affiliation
Candidates
Declared
- Bruce Nathan, physical therapist
General election
Debates
| Dates | Location | Rubio | Murphy | Stanton | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 17, 2016 | Orlando, Florida | Participant | Participant | Not Invited | |
| October 26, 2016 | Davie, Florida | Participant | Participant | Not Invited |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Lean R | November 2, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean R | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report | Lean R | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos | Lean R | November 8, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics | Tossup | November 7, 2016 |
Polling
Graphical summary
View source data.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Marco Rubio (R) | Patrick Murphy (D) | Paul Stanton (L) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 4,092 | ± 4.6% | 48% | 49% | — | — | 3% |
| Quinnipiac University | November 3–6, 2016 | 884 | ± 3.3% | 50% | 43% | — | 2% | 5% |
| Alliance/ESA Poll | November 2–6, 2016 | 875 | ± 4.2% | 51% | 40% | — | — | 9% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 31–November 6, 2016 | 3,574 | ± 4.6% | 48% | 49% | — | — | 3% |
| CBS News/YouGov | November 2–4, 2016 | 1,188 | ± 3.6% | 47% | 44% | — | 3% | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 28–November 3, 2016 | 3,356 | ± 4.6% | 49% | 49% | — | — | 2% |
| Breitbart/Gravis Marketing | November 1–2, 2016 | 1,220 | ± 2.8% | 47% | 46% | — | — | 7% |
| FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy | November 1–2, 2016 | 603 | ± 4.0% | 50% | 46% | — | — | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 27–November 2, 2016 | 2,901 | ± 4.6% | 49% | 48% | — | — | 3% |
| CNN/ORC | October 27–November 1, 2016 | 773 LV | ± 3.5% | 49% | 48% | — | — | 2% |
| 884 RV | 50% | 47% | — | — | 3% | |||
| Quinnipiac University | October 27–November 1, 2016 | 626 | ± 3.9% | 50% | 44% | — | 1% | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 26–November 1, 2016 | 2,715 | ± 4.6% | 49% | 47% | — | — | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 2,809 | ± 4.6% | 49% | 47% | — | — | 4% |
| TargetSmart/William & Mary | October 25–28, 2016 | 718 | ± 3.4% | 49% | 43% | — | 7% | 1% |
| Emerson College | October 26–27, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.3% | 49% | 47% | — | 3% | 1% |
| New York Times Upshot/Siena College | October 25–27, 2016 | 814 | ± 3.4% | 51% | 42% | — | — | 5% |
| Breitbart/Gravis Marketing | October 25–26, 2016 | 1,301 | ± 2.7% | 46% | 46% | — | — | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 25–26, 2016 | 742 | ± 3.6% | 46% | 46% | — | — | 8% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist | October 25–26, 2016 | 779 LV | ± 3.5% | 51% | 43% | — | 4% | 2% |
| 990 RV | ± 3.1% | 50% | 42% | — | 4% | 3% | ||
| St. Leo University | October 22–26, 2016 | 1,028 | ± 3.0% | 44% | 39% | — | — | 17% |
| University of North Florida | October 20–25, 2016 | 836 | ± 3.6% | 49% | 43% | — | — | 8% |
| Bloomberg/Selzer | October 21–24, 2016 | 953 | ± 3.2% | 51% | 41% | — | — | 8% |
| Florida Atlantic University | October 21–23, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.3% | 46% | 42% | — | — | 12% |
| Bay News 9/SurveyUSA | October 20–24, 2016 | 1,251 | ± 2.8% | 45% | 41% | — | 6% | 8% |
| CBS News/YouGov | October 20–21, 2016 | 1,042 | ± 3.6% | 44% | 42% | — | 6% | 8% |
| FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy | October 20, 2016 | 538 | ± 4.2% | 46% | 46% | — | — | 8% |
| Google Consumer Surveys | October 18–20, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.2% | 57% | 38% | — | — | 5% |
| Associated Industries of Florida | October 19, 2016 | 1,000 | ± 3.1% | 43% | 38% | — | 8% | 11% |
| Florida Chamber of Commerce | October 16–19, 2016 | 507 | ± 4.4% | 51% | 37% | — | 1% | 11% |
| The Times-Picayune/Lucid | October 17–18, 2016 | 892 | ± 3.0% | 45% | 44% | — | — | 11% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 10–16, 2016 | 660 | ± 3.8% | 49% | 47% | — | — | 4% |
| Washington Post/SurveyMonkey | October 8–16, 2016 | 1,702 | ± 0.5% | 51% | 45% | — | — | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 12–13, 2016 | 985 | ± 3.1% | 44% | 38% | 6% | — | 12% |
| 48% | 43% | — | — | 9% | ||||
| Breitbart/Gravis Marketing | October 11–13, 2016 | 1,799 | ± 2.3% | 44% | 36% | — | — | 20% |
| FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy | October 10–11, 2016 | 533 | ± 4.2% | 48% | 44% | — | — | 8% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist | October 3–5, 2016 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 48% | 46% | — | 2% | 4% |
| Associated Industries of Florida | October 2–5, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 41% | — | 1% | 9% |
| Breitbart/Gravis Marketing | October 4, 2016 | 821 | ± 3.4% | 44% | 40% | — | — | 16% |
| Emerson College | October 2–4, 2016 | 600 | ± 3.6% | 47% | 39% | — | 6% | 8% |
| University of North Florida | September 27–October 4, 2016 | 667 | ± 3.8% | 48% | 41% | — | 1% | 10% |
| Quinnipiac University | September 27–October 2, 2016 | 545 | ± 4.2% | 48% | 44% | — | — | 8% |
| FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy | September 28–29, 2016 | 619 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 43% | — | — | 10% |
| Mason-Dixon | September 27–29, 2016 | 820 | ± 3.5% | 47% | 40% | 5% | 2% | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 27–28, 2016 | 826 | ± 3.4% | 42% | 35% | 9% | — | 15% |
| 47% | 44% | — | — | 9% | ||||
| Suffolk University | September 19–21, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 43% | 34% | 2% | 4% | 17% |
| Florida Chamber of Commerce | September 15–20, 2016 | 617 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 42% | — | — | 11% |
| Monmouth University | September 16–19, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 47% | 45% | — | 3% | 5% |
| Saint Leo University | September 10–16, 2016 | 502 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 35% | — | — | 21% |
| New York Times Upshot/Siena College | September 10–14, 2016 | 867 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 42% | — | — | 8% |
| CNN/ORC | September 7–12, 2016 | 788 LV | ± 3.0% | 54% | 43% | — | 1% | 2% |
| 886 RV | 51% | 45% | — | 1% | 4% | |||
| Global Strategy Group | September 6–11, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 47% | 45% | — | — | 8% |
| JMC Analytics (R) | September 7–8, 2016 | 781 | ± 3.5% | 43% | 38% | — | 4% | 15% |
| Quinnipiac University | August 31–September 7, 2016 | 601 | ± 4.0% | 50% | 43% | — | 1% | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 4–6, 2016 | 744 | ± 3.6% | 40% | 37% | 10% | — | 13% |
| Mason-Dixon | August 22–24, 2016 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | — | — | 11% |
| iCitizen | August 18–24, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 42% | — | — | 16% |
| Florida Atlantic University | August 19–22, 2016 | 1,200 | ± 2.7% | 44% | 39% | — | — | 17% |
| St. Leo University | August 14–18, 2016 | 1,380 | ± 3.0% | 46% | 38% | — | — | 16% |
| Monmouth University | August 12–15, 2016 | 402 | ± 4.9% | 48% | 43% | — | 3% | 5% |
| FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy | August 10, 2016 | 622 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 43% | — | — | 12% |
| Civis Analytics | August 9–15, 2016 | 1,436 | ± 2.8% | 44% | 45% | — | — | 9% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist | August 4–10, 2016 | 862 | ± 3.3% | 49% | 43% | — | 3% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling | August 5–7, 2016 | 938 | ± 3.2% | 42% | 40% | — | — | 18% |
| Quinnipiac University | July 30–August 7, 2016 | 1,056 | ± 3.0% | 48% | 45% | — | — | 7% |
| Suffolk University | August 1–3, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 46% | 33% | — | — | 21% |
| JMC Analytics (R) | July 9–10, 2016 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 40% | 33% | — | 5% | 21% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist | July 5–11, 2016 | 871 | ± 3.3% | 47% | 44% | — | 2% | 7% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 30–July 11, 2016 | 1,015 | ± 3.1% | 50% | 37% | — | 1% | 8% |
| Bay News 9/SurveyUSA | June 25–27, 2016 | 1,678 | ± 2.4% | 43% | 43% | — | 7% | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 8–19, 2016 | 975 | ± 3.1% | 47% | 40% | — | — | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 15–16, 2016 | 508 | ± 4.4% | 41% | 42% | — | — | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 2–5, 2016 | 737 | ± 3.6% | 43% | 44% | — | — | 13% |
| Associated Industries of Florida | April 25–27, 2016 | 604 | ± 5.0% | 49% | 41% | — | — | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 11–13, 2015 | 814 | ± 3.4% | 46% | 40% | — | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling | March 19–22, 2015 | 923 | ± 3.2% | 48% | 41% | — | — | 11% |
| Mason-Dixon | March 3–5, 2015 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 50% | 38% | — | — | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 4–7, 2014 | 818 | ± 3.4% | 46% | 41% | — | — | 12% |
Hypothetical polling
with Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ron DeSantis (R) | Alan Grayson (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | June 8–19, 2016 | 975 | ± 3.1% | 33% | 41% | 1% | 24% |
| Quinnipiac University | April 27–May 8, 2016 | 1,051 | ± 3.0% | 38% | 36% | — | 26% |
| Public Policy Polling | February 24–25, 2016 | 1,012 | ± 3.1% | 34% | 40% | — | 26% |
| Quinnipiac University | September 25-October 5, 2015 | 1,173 | ± 2.9% | 31% | 37% | 1% | 26% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 11–13, 2015 | 814 | ± 3.4% | 37% | 36% | — | 28% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 4–15, 2015 | 1,147 | ± 2.9% | 32% | 38% | 1% | 29% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ron DeSantis (R) | Patrick Murphy (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | June 8–19, 2016 | 975 | ± 3.1% | 32% | 42% | 1% | 25% |
| Quinnipiac University | April 27–May 8, 2016 | 1,051 | ± 3.0% | 35% | 36% | — | 29% |
| Associated Industries of Florida | April 25–27, 2016 | 604 | ± 5% | 28% | 40% | — | 32% |
| Public Policy Polling | February 24–25, 2016 | 1,012 | ± 3.1% | 31% | 43% | — | 26% |
| Quinnipiac University | September 25-October 5, 2015 | 1,173 | ± 2.9% | 30% | 37% | 1% | 29% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 11–13, 2015 | 814 | ± 3.4% | 35% | 40% | — | 25% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 4–15, 2015 | 1,147 | ± 2.9% | 31% | 39% | 1% | 29% |
| St. Leo University | May 25–31, 2015 | 535 | ± 4.5% | 14% | 33% | — | 53% |
with David Jolly
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | David Jolly (R) | Alan Grayson (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | June 8–19, 2016 | 975 | ± 3.1% | 34% | 41% | 1% | 24% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 2–5, 2016 | 737 | ± 3.6% | 33% | 40% | — | 27% |
| Quinnipiac University | April 27–May 8, 2016 | 1,051 | ± 3.0% | 37% | 35% | — | 28% |
| Public Policy Polling | February 24–25, 2016 | 1,012 | ± 3.1% | 38% | 35% | — | 26% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 11–13, 2015 | 814 | ± 3.4% | 39% | 36% | — | 26% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | David Jolly (R) | Patrick Murphy (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | June 8–19, 2016 | 975 | ± 3.1% | 34% | 41% | 1% | 25% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 2–5, 2016 | 737 | ± 3.6% | 29% | 44% | — | 27% |
| Quinnipiac University | April 27–May 8, 2016 | 1,051 | ± 3.0% | 34% | 37% | — | 29% |
| Associated Industries of Florida | April 25–27, 2016 | 604 | ± 5% | 33% | 40% | — | 27% |
| Public Policy Polling | February 24–25, 2016 | 1,012 | ± 3.1% | 34% | 38% | — | 27% |
| Democracy Corps | October 24–28, 2015 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 44% | 43% | — | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 11–13, 2015 | 814 | ± 3.4% | 35% | 40% | — | 25% |
| St. Leo University | May 25–31, 2015 | 535 | ± 4.5% | 14% | 35% | — | 52% |
with Carlos Lopez-Cantera
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Carlos López-Cantera (R) | Alan Grayson (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | June 8–19, 2016 | 975 | ± 3.1% | 35% | 40% | 1% | 24% |
| Quinnipiac University | April 27–May 8, 2016 | 1,051 | ± 3.0% | 37% | 37% | — | 26% |
| Public Policy Polling | February 24–25, 2016 | 1,012 | ± 3.1% | 35% | 38% | — | 26% |
| Quinnipiac University | September 25-October 5, 2015 | 1,173 | ± 2.9% | 32% | 35% | 1% | 27% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 11–13, 2015 | 814 | ± 3.4% | 34% | 41% | — | 24% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 4–15, 2015 | 1,147 | ± 2.9% | 31% | 37% | 1% | 31% |
| Quinnipiac University | March 17–28, 2015 | 1,087 | ± 3% | 33% | 32% | 1% | 34% |
| Public Policy Polling | March 19–22, 2015 | 923 | ± 3.2% | 36% | 40% | — | 24% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Carlos López-Cantera (R) | Patrick Murphy (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | June 8–19, 2016 | 975 | ± 3.1% | 32% | 41% | 1% | 26% |
| Quinnipiac University | April 27–May 8, 2016 | 1,051 | ± 3.0% | 34% | 38% | — | 28% |
| Associated Industries of Florida | April 25–27, 2016 | 604 | ± 5% | 31% | 42% | — | 27% |
| Public Policy Polling | February 24–25, 2016 | 1,012 | ± 3.1% | 31% | 40% | — | 29% |
| Quinnipiac University | September 25-October 5, 2015 | 1,173 | ± 2.9% | 29% | 37% | 1% | 30% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 11–13, 2015 | 814 | ± 3.4% | 35% | 41% | — | 24% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 4–15, 2015 | 1,147 | ± 2.9% | 28% | 40% | 1% | 32% |
| St. Leo University | May 25–31, 2015 | 535 | ± 4.5% | 15% | 30% | — | 56% |
| Quinnipiac University | March 17–28, 2015 | 1,087 | ± 3% | 31% | 35% | 1% | 33% |
| Public Policy Polling | March 19–22, 2015 | 923 | ± 3.2% | 34% | 41% | — | 25% |
with Jeff Atwater
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jeff Atwater (R) | Alan Grayson (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | March 17–28, 2015 | 1,087 | ± 3% | 42% | 32% | 1% | 25% |
| Public Policy Polling | March 19–22, 2015 | 923 | ± 3.2% | 41% | 40% | — | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jeff Atwater (R) | Patrick Murphy (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | March 17–28, 2015 | 1,087 | ± 3% | 38% | 34% | 1% | 27% |
| Public Policy Polling | March 19–22, 2015 | 923 | ± 3.2% | 41% | 39% | — | 20% |
| Mason-Dixon | March 3–5, 2015 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 46% | 32% | — | 22% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jeff Atwater (R) | Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon | March 3–5, 2015 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 35% | 20% |
with Pam Bondi
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Pam Bondi (R) | Alan Grayson (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | March 19–22, 2015 | 923 | ± 3.2% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Pam Bondi (R) | Patrick Murphy (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | March 19–22, 2015 | 923 | ± 3.2% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
with Don Gaetz
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Don Gaetz (R) | Patrick Murphy (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Leo University | May 25–31, 2015 | 535 | ± 4.5% | 9% | 36% | 55% |
with Jeff Miller
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jeff Miller (R) | Patrick Murphy (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Leo University | May 25–31, 2015 | 535 | ± 4.5% | 15% | 34% | 52% |
with Marco Rubio
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Marco Rubio (R) | Alex Sink (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | September 27–29, 2013 | 579 | ± 4.1% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Marco Rubio (R) | Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon | March 3–5, 2015 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 53% | 36% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 4–7, 2014 | 818 | ± 3.4% | 47% | 43% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 6–9, 2014 | 672 | ± 3.8% | 48% | 40% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 27–29, 2013 | 579 | ± 4.1% | 46% | 43% | 11% |
with Allen West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Allen West (R) | Alan Grayson (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | March 19–22, 2015 | 923 | ± 3.2% | 39% | 42% | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Allen West (R) | Patrick Murphy (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | March 19–22, 2015 | 923 | ± 3.2% | 39% | 41% | 20% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Allen West (R) | Alex Sink (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | September 27–29, 2013 | 579 | ± 4.1% | 38% | 44% | 18% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Allen West (R) | Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | June 6–9, 2014 | 672 | ± 3.8% | 41% | 40% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 27–29, 2013 | 579 | ± 4.1% | 40% | 44% | 16% |
with Todd Wilcox
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Todd Wilcox (R) | Alan Grayson (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | June 8–19, 2016 | 975 | ± 3.1% | 34% | 39% | 2% | 24% |
| Quinnipiac University | April 27–May 8, 2016 | 1,051 | ± 3.0% | 37% | 35% | — | 28% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Todd Wilcox (R) | Patrick Murphy (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | June 8–19, 2016 | 975 | ± 3.1% | 31% | 41% | 1% | 26% |
| Quinnipiac University | April 27–May 8, 2016 | 1,051 | ± 3.0% | 33% | 38% | — | 27% |
with Carlos Beruff
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Carlos Beruff (R) | Alan Grayson (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | July 30–August 7, 2016 | 1,056 | ± 3.0% | 39% | 43% | 1% | 17% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 30–July 11, 2016 | 1,015 | ± 3.1% | 38% | 38% | 1% | 19% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 8–19, 2016 | 975 | ± 3.1% | 33% | 40% | 1% | 25% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 2–5, 2016 | 737 | ± 3.6% | 32% | 41% | — | 28% |
| Quinnipiac University | April 27–May 8, 2016 | 1,051 | ± 3.0% | 35% | 36% | — | 29% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Carlos Beruff (R) | Patrick Murphy (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | July 30–August 7, 2016 | 1,056 | ± 3.0% | 34% | 48% | 1% | 17% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 30–July 11, 2016 | 1,015 | ± 3.1% | 34% | 40% | 1% | 19% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 8–19, 2016 | 975 | ± 3.1% | 31% | 43% | 1% | 26% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 2–5, 2016 | 737 | ± 3.6% | 31% | 43% | — | 27% |
| Quinnipiac University | April 27–May 8, 2016 | 1,051 | ± 3.0% | 32% | 38% | — | 29% |
| Associated Industries of Florida | April 25–27, 2016 | 604 | ± 5.0% | 31% | 39% | — | 30% |
with Alan Grayson
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Marco Rubio (R) | Alan Grayson (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iCitizen | August 18–24, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 39% | — | 16% |
| St. Leo University | August 14–18, 2016 | 1,380 | ± 3.0% | 47% | 34% | — | 19% |
| Monmouth University | August 12–15, 2016 | 402 | ± 4.9% | 50% | 39% | 5% | 6% |
| Quinnipiac University | July 30–August 7, 2016 | 1,056 | ± 3.0% | 49% | 43% | 1% | 8% |
| Suffolk University | August 1–3, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 45% | 31% | — | 24% |
| JMC Analytics (R) | July 9–10, 2016 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 41% | 33% | 4% | 22% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 30–July 11, 2016 | 1,015 | ± 3.1% | 50% | 38% | 1% | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 8–19, 2016 | 975 | ± 3.1% | 50% | 38% | 1% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 15–16, 2016 | 508 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 40% | — | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 2–5, 2016 | 737 | ± 3.6% | 43% | 38% | — | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 11–13, 2015 | 814 | ± 3.4% | 48% | 38% | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling | March 19–22, 2015 | 923 | ± 3.2% | 49% | 40% | — | 11% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Marco Rubio (incumbent) | 4,835,191 | 51.98% | +3.09% | |
| Democratic | Patrick Murphy | 4,122,088 | 44.31% | +24.11% | |
| Libertarian | Paul Stanton | 196,956 | 2.12% | +1.66% | |
| Independent | Bruce Nathan | 52,451 | 0.56% | N/A | |
| Independent | Tony Khoury | 45,820 | 0.49% | N/A | |
| Independent | Steven Machat | 26,918 | 0.29% | N/A | |
| Independent | Basil E. Dalack | 22,236 | 0.24% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 160 | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||
| Total votes | 9,301,820 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Miami-Dade (largest municipality: Miami)
- Osceola (largest municipality: Kissimmee)
- St. Lucie (largest municipality: Port St. Lucie)
- Alachua (largest city: Gainesville)
- Orange (largest city: Orlando)
Counties that flipped from Independent to Democratic
- Broward (largest city: Fort Lauderdale)
- Leon (largest city: Tallahassee)
- Palm Beach (largest city: West Palm Beach)
Counties that from Independent to Republican
- Pinellas (largest municipality: St. Petersburg)
By congressional district
Rubio won 16 of 27 congressional districts, with the remaining 11 going to Murphy. Each candidate won a congressional district that elected a representative of the other party.
| District | Rubio | Murphy | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 70% | 25% | Jeff Miller |
| Matt Gaetz | |||
| 2nd | 66% | 30% | Gwen Graham |
| Neal Dunn | |||
| 3rd | 59% | 37% | Ted Yoho |
| 4th | 68% | 28% | Ander Crenshaw |
| John Rutherford | |||
| 5th | 41% | 56% | Corrine Brown |
| Al Lawson | |||
| 6th | 57% | 39% | Ron DeSantis |
| 7th | 49% | 46% | John Mica |
| Stephanie Murphy | |||
| 8th | 59% | 36% | Bill Posey |
| 9th | 46% | 50% | Alan Grayson |
| Darren Soto | |||
| 10th | 40% | 56% | Daniel Webster |
| Val Demings | |||
| 11th | 62% | 33% | Rich Nugent |
| Daniel Webster | |||
| 12th | 56% | 38% | Gus Bilirakis |
| 13th | 47% | 48% | David Jolly |
| Charlie Crist | |||
| 14th | 44% | 52% | Kathy Castor |
| 15th | 54% | 41% | Dennis Ross |
| 16th | 55% | 40% | Vern Buchanan |
| 17th | 62% | 33% | Tom Rooney |
| 18th | 52% | 45% | Patrick Murphy |
| Brian Mast | |||
| 19th | 65% | 31% | Curt Clawson |
| Francis Rooney | |||
| 20th | 21% | 77% | Alcee Hastings |
| 21st | 42% | 55% | Lois Frankel |
| 22nd | 43% | 55% | Ted Deutch |
| 23rd | 40% | 58% | Debbie Wasserman Schultz |
| 24th | 20% | 78% | Frederica Wilson |
| 25th | 60% | 38% | Mario Díaz-Balart |
| 26th | 49% | 48% | Carlos Curbelo |
| 27th | 48.5% | 49.3% | Ileana Ros-Lehtinen |
See also
- United States Senate elections, 2016
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