2016 United States Senate election in Illinois

The 2016 United States Senate election in Illinois was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Illinois, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

2016 United States Senate election in Illinois

← 2010
November 8, 2016
2022 →
Turnout68.39%
 
Nominee Tammy Duckworth Mark Kirk
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 3,012,940 2,184,693
Percentage 54.86% 39.78%

Duckworth:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Kirk:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data

U.S. senator before election

Mark Kirk
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Tammy Duckworth
Democratic

Prior to the election, incumbent senator Mark Kirk (R) was considered to be the most vulnerable senator among those seeking re-election in 2016 due to Illinois's heavy Democratic partisan balance; news networks and analysts widely expected a Democratic pickup.

Party primary elections were held on March 15, 2016. Kirk lost re-election to a second full term to Tammy Duckworth, the U.S. representative from Illinois's 8th congressional district and a decorated combat veteran of the Iraq War. Duckworth became the first woman elected to the U.S. Senate from Illinois since fellow Democrat Carol Moseley Braun in 1992. Despite his loss, Kirk outperformed Trump in the concurrent presidential election by around 2 percent. This is the last time a senator from Illinois lost re-election.

Background

In 2010, Republican Mark Kirk was elected to the Senate for Illinois, defeating Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias by 59,220 votes out of more than 3.7 million votes cast.

Kirk suffered a severe stroke in January 2012 that kept him away from the Senate until January 2013. In June 2013 he confirmed that he was "planning" to run for re-election, but there was speculation that he might retire, particularly in the wake of the departure of several of his senior staff. Republican Bruce Rauner was elected governor in 2014, and a possible scenario was that Kirk would resign early, allowing Rauner to appoint another Republican as the replacement. Potential replacements included U.S. representatives Bob Dold, Adam Kinzinger, Aaron Schock, and Peter Roskam, State Senators Jason Barickman and Christine Radogno, hedge fund manager and founder and CEO of Citadel LLC Kenneth C. Griffin, and businesswoman Beth Christie. In November 2014, Kirk reiterated that he was going to run for re-election.

Kirk was identified by The Washington Post, The New York Times, Politico, The Huffington Post, Slate and Roll Call as one of the most vulnerable Republican senators up for re-election in 2016.

For the primary election, turnout was 41.94%, with 3,215,334 votes cast. For the general election, turnout was 68.39%, with 5,491,878 votes cast.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Mark Kirk, incumbent U.S. senator

Eliminated in primary

  • James Marter, businessman

Removed from ballot

  • Elizabeth Pahlke, independent candidate for IL-02 in 2013

Withdrawn

  • Ron Wallace, investment advisor, conservative activist and economics professor

Declined

  • William J. Kelly, television producer, nominee for IL-01 in 1994, candidate for Illinois Comptroller in 2010 and candidate for Mayor of Chicago in 2015
  • Bobby Schilling, former U.S. representative
  • Joe Walsh, conservative radio talk show host and former U.S. representative

Endorsements

Mark Kirk

State politicians

Newspapers

  • Chicago Tribune (for primary)
James Marter

Individuals

  • Dick Conklin, Knox County Board member
  • Mark Curran, Lake County sheriff
  • Trent Franks, U.S. representative (AZ-08)
  • Patrick Harlan, president of the Knox County Tea Party and candidate for IL-17 in 2016

Organizations

  • ALIPAC (Americans for Legal Immigration PAC)
  • Chicago 11th Ward Republican Party

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Kirk
James
Marter
Undecided
Chicago Tribune March 2–6, 2016 600 ± 4.1% 65% 22% 12%
SIU Simon Institute February 15–20, 2016 306 ± 5.6% 53% 14% 33%

Results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mark Kirk (incumbent) 931,619 70.6
Republican James T. Marter 388,571 29.4
Total votes 1,320,190 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Tammy Duckworth, U.S. representative

Eliminated in primary

  • Napoleon Harris, state senator and candidate for Illinois's 2nd congressional district in 2013
  • Andrea Zopp, former president and CEO of the Chicago Urban League, former Chicago Board of Education member

Withdrawn

  • Tio Hardiman, former director of CeaseFire and candidate for governor in 2014 (ran for IL-01, then withdrew to run for Cook County clerk of court)
  • Robert Marshall, radiologist and perennial candidate (running for IL-06)

Declined

  • Daniel Biss, state senator (running for state comptroller)
  • Richard Boykin, Cook County Commissioner
  • Cheri Bustos, U.S. representative
  • Jacqueline Y. Collins, state senator
  • Tom Dart, sheriff of Cook County
  • Bill Foster, U.S. representative
  • Mike Frerichs, Illinois Treasurer
  • Daniel Hynes, former Illinois Comptroller, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2004 and candidate for governor of Illinois in 2010
  • Robin Kelly, U.S. representative
  • Lisa Madigan, Illinois Attorney General
  • Michelle Obama, First Lady of the United States
  • Mike Quigley, U.S. representative
  • Pat Quinn, former governor of Illinois
  • Kwame Raoul, state senator
  • Jan Schakowsky, U.S. representative
  • Sheila Simon, former lieutenant governor of Illinois and nominee for Illinois Comptroller in 2014

Endorsements

Tammy Duckworth

U.S. cabinet members and cabinet-level officials

U.S. senators

  • Dick Durbin, Illinois
  • Kirsten Gillibrand, New York
  • Harry Reid, Nevada
  • Jon Tester, Montana
  • Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts

U.S. representatives

  • Bill Foster, Illinois
  • Jan Schakowsky, Illinois

Labor unions

  • AFL–CIO
  • IFT - Illinois Federation of Teachers

Organizations

  • Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
  • EMILY's List
  • VoteVets.org

Newspapers

  • Chicago Tribune
Andrea Zopp

U.S. representatives

  • Danny K. Davis, Illinois
  • Bobby Rush, Illinois

Notable individuals

  • Jesse Jackson, civil rights activist
  • Kwame Raoul, state senator
  • Kurt Summers, Jr., Chicago city treasurer

Newspapers

  • Chicago Defender
  • Chicago Sun-Times

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tammy
Duckworth
Andrea
Zopp
Napoleon
Harris
Undecided
SIU Simon Institute February 15–20, 2016 422 ± 4.7% 52% 6% 4% 37%
Public Policy Polling July 20–21, 2015 409 ± 4.9% 59% 10% 31%

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tammy Duckworth 1,220,128 64.38%
Democratic Andrea Zopp 455,729 24.05%
Democratic Napoleon Harris 219,286 11.57%
Total votes 1,859,257 100.00%

Third party candidates

On July 6, the Green Party candidate and the Libertarian Party candidate were announced as having made the ballot for November after no objections were filed against their petitions. However, objections against two others were filed, namely the Constitution Party candidate Chad Koppie, due to his name being on a petition slate with Constitution Party presidential candidate Darrell Castle, who turned in fewer than the required petitions needed, and against Independent candidate Eric Conklin. Neither Koppie nor Conklin were likely to receive ballot access after a review of their petitions.

Constitution Party (C) (write-in)

  • Chad Koppie, farmer and vice president of Kane County Regional Board of School Trustees

Libertarian Party (L)

  • Kent McMillen

Green Party (G)

  • Scott Summers, attorney and former member of the McHenry County College Board of Trustees

Independent (I)

  • Eric M. Conklin, law enforcement officer

General election

  • Tammy Duckworth (D), U.S. representative
  • Mark Kirk (R), incumbent U.S. senator
  • Chad Koppie (C) (write-in)
  • Kenton McMillen (L)
  • Scott Summers (G)

Debates

Dates Location Kirk Duckworth Link
October 3, 2016 Chicago, Illinois Participant Participant
October 27, 2016 Springfield, Illinois Participant Participant
November 4, 2016 Chicago, Illinois Participant Participant

Campaign

Kirk had multiple factors working against him, as no Republican had won an Illinois US Senate race during a presidential election year since 1972, and he had made a number of gaffes during the campaign. He had exaggerated his Iraq War record on his campaign website, and during a debate, Kirk made a racially charged remark about Duckworth's familial military background. Additionally, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump was unpopular in Chicago and its suburbs, and Kirk refused to endorse or vote for him, instead writing in former U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell. Kirk also had a mostly liberal voting record in the Senate, favoring gay marriage, an assault weapons ban, and he had voted against defunding and repealing portions of Obamacare in 2015. Due to these factors, Kirk alienated the Democratic, Independent, and Republican voters whom he had previously won over in his 2010 campaign. Unusually, the normally Republican-leaning editorial board of the Chicago Tribune endorsed Duckworth, as they believed that the health problems that Kirk had suffered as a result of his stroke made him a less effective senator. This election had been cited as historic, as both major party nominees had physical disabilities.

Endorsements

Mark Kirk (R)

Governors

  • John Kasich, governor of Ohio and 2016 presidential candidate
  • Bruce Rauner, governor of Illinois
  • Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts and 2012 Republican presidential nominee

U.S. representatives

  • Mike Bost, Illinois
  • Rodney Davis, Illinois
  • Bob Dold, Illinois
  • Randy Hultgren, Illinois
  • Adam Kinzinger, Illinois
  • Darin Lahood, Illinois
  • Peter Roskam, Illinois
  • John Shimkus, Illinois

U.S. senators

  • Shelley Moore Capito, United States senator from West Virginia
  • John Cornyn, United States senator from Texas
  • Joni Ernst, United States senator from Iowa
  • John McCain, United States senator from Arizona, 2000 presidential candidate and 2008 presidential nominee
  • Mitch McConnell, United States senator from Kentucky and Senate Majority Leader
  • Marco Rubio, United States senator from Florida and 2016 presidential candidate

State Representatives

  • Mark Batinick, Illinois
  • Tom Bennett, Illinois
  • Adam Brown, Illinois
  • Dwight Kay, Illinois
  • Michael McAuliffe, Illinois
  • David McSweeney, Illinois
  • Ron Sandack, Illinois
  • Brian W. Stewart, Illinois
  • Mike Unes, Illinois
  • Grant Wehrli, Illinois
  • Christine Winger, Illinois

State officials

  • Evelyn Sanguinetti, lieutenant governor of Illinois

Mayors

  • Jim Ardis, mayor of Peoria, Illinois

Individuals

Newspapers

  • The Daily Herald
  • Herald-Whig
  • Journal Star
  • The News-Gazette
  • Northwest Herald

Organizations

Tammy Duckworth (D)

U.S. presidents

U.S. vice presidents

U.S. cabinet members and cabinet-level officials

U.S. senators

  • Dick Durbin, Illinois
  • Kirsten Gillibrand, New York
  • Harry Reid, Nevada
  • Jon Tester, Montana
  • Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts

U.S. representatives

  • Bill Foster, Illinois
  • Jan Schakowsky, Illinois

Labor unions

  • AFL–CIO
  • IFT - Illinois Federation of Teachers

Newspapers

  • Chicago Tribune

Organizations

  • Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
  • EMILY's List
  • Human Rights Campaign (endorsed Kirk until October 29)
  • VoteVets.org

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report Lean D (flip) November 2, 2016
Inside Elections Lean D (flip) November 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely D (flip) November 7, 2016
Daily Kos Safe D (flip) November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics Likely D (flip) November 7, 2016

Polling

%support010203040506012/18/20147/16/201610/18/201611/6/2016KirkDuckworthOther/UndecidedOpinion polling for the 2016 United States S...
View source data.
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mark
Kirk (R)
Tammy
Duckworth (D)
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 1,823 ± 4.6% 39% 56% 5%
SurveyMonkey October 31 – November 6, 2016 1,505 ± 4.6% 39% 56% 5%
SurveyMonkey October 28 – November 3, 2016 1,120 ± 4.6% 40% 54% 6%
SurveyMonkey October 27 – November 2, 2016 997 ± 4.6% 40% 55% 5%
SurveyMonkey October 26 – November 1, 2016 911 ± 4.6% 39% 55% 6%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 1,003 ± 4.6% 38% 57% 5%
Emerson College October 27–30, 2016 500 ± 4.3% 36% 54% 5% 5%
Loras College October 26–27, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 34% 42% 6% 18%
The Illinois Poll - Victory Research October 16–18, 2016 1,200 ± 2.8% 39% 50% 3% 8%
GS Strategy Group (R-Kirk) October 4–5, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 37% 41% 6% 16%
Southern Illinois University Sept 27–Oct 2, 2016 865 ± 3.3% 34% 48% 8% 10%
Normington, Petts and Associates (D) September 27–29, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 37% 46% 17%
Emerson College September 19–20, 2016 700 ± 3.6% 39% 41% 11% 9%
Loras College September 13–16, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 36% 41% 22%
Normington, Petts and Associates (D) August 1–4, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 37% 44% 19%
The Illinois Poll - Victory Research July 14–16, 2016 1,200 ± 2.8% 37% 46% 4% 12%
Normington, Petts and Associates (D) July 11–14, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 38% 40% 22%
Basswood Research (R) July 11–12, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 42% 40% 18%
GS Strategy Group (R-Kirk) March 30–31, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 40% 43% 17%
End Citizens United September 10–14, 2015 948 ± 3.2% 41% 45% 14%
Public Policy Polling July 20–21, 2015 931 ± 3.2% 36% 42% 22%
Ogden & Fry June 23, 2015 598 ± 4.1% 27% 44% 29%
We Ask America December 18, 2014 1,003 ± 3.0% 45% 46% 9%
Hypothetical polling

with Andrea Zopp

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Kirk (R)
Andrea
Zopp (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 20–21, 2015 931 ± 3.2% 38% 29% 32%

with Lisa Madigan

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Kirk (R)
Lisa
Madigan (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 22–25, 2013 557 ± 4.2% 41% 41% 19%

with Michelle Obama

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Kirk (R)
Michelle
Obama (D)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing March 21–22, 2014 806 ± 3.0% 47% 42% 11%
Public Policy Polling November 26–28, 2012 500 ± 4.4% 40% 51% 9%

with Pat Quinn

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Kirk (R)
Pat
Quinn (D)
Undecided
We Ask America December 18, 2014 1,003 ± 3.0% 55% 36% 9%

Results

The result was a landslide victory for Tammy Duckworth. Pre-election polling showed Kirk would be easily defeated by Duckworth, and the polls were proven right when Duckworth was declared the winner quickly after polls closed in Illinois. Duckworth performed extremely well in the heavily populated and strongly Democratic Cook County, home of Chicago. Duckworth also did well in Champaign, East St. Louis and Carbondale. Kirk did do well in rural parts of the state, but it was nowhere near enough to offset his weakness in the Chicago metropolitan area. The Chicago 'collar counties' — among them Kirk's home county of Lake County — previously voted for Kirk, but easily flipped to Duckworth. Duckworth was sworn in at 12:00 P.M. EST on January 3, 2017. The Libertarian and Green candidates polled well, winning three and two percent of the vote respectively.

United States Senate election in Illinois, 2016
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Tammy Duckworth 3,012,940 54.86% +8.44%
Republican Mark Kirk (incumbent) 2,184,692 39.78% −8.23%
Libertarian Kenton McMillen 175,988 3.21% +0.85%
Green Scott Summers 117,619 2.14% −1.04%
Write-in 639 0.01% -0.02%
Total votes 5,491,878 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

  • DeKalb (largest city: DeKalb)
  • DuPage (largest city: Aurora)
  • Gallatin (largest city: Shawneetown)
  • Kane (largest city: Aurora)
  • Lake (largest city: Waukegan)
  • McDonough (largest city: Macomb)
  • Will (largest city: Joliet)
  • Calhoun (largest village: Hardin)
  • Madison (largest city: Granite City)
  • Knox (largest city: Galesburg)
  • Champaign (largest city: Champaign)
  • Rock Island (largest city: Moline)

By congressional district

Duckworth won 12 of 18 districts, including one that elected a Republican.

District Kirk Duckworth Representative
1st 21% 74% Bobby Rush
2nd 19% 77% Robin Kelly
3rd 38% 56% Dan Lipinski
4th 16% 77% Luis Gutierrez
5th 31% 64% Mike Quigley
6th 50% 44% Peter Roskam
7th 15% 82% Danny K. Davis
8th 38% 56% Tammy Duckworth
Raja Krishnamoorthi
9th 33% 63% Jan Schakowsky
10th 42% 53% Robert Dold
Brad Schneider
11th 37% 57% Bill Foster
12th 43% 52% Mike Bost
13th 47.2% 46.9% Rodney Davis
14th 51% 42% Randy Hultgren
15th 62% 33% John Shimkus
16th 54% 39% Adam Kinzinger
17th 46% 48% Cheri Bustos
18th 59% 35% Darin LaHood

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