The 2016 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Wisconsin, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held August 9, 2016.
November 8, 2016 | |||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 67.34% | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Johnson: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Feingold: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson was re-elected to a second term in office. Former U.S. Senator Russ Feingold, whom Johnson unseated in the 2010 midterm elections, sought a rematch for a fourth non-consecutive term in office but was again defeated by Johnson, who became the first Republican to win a Senate election in Wisconsin during a presidential election year since Bob Kasten in 1980. Kasten was ultimately unseated by Feingold in 1992. Johnson's victory was considered an upset as most polling had Feingold in the lead, coinciding with Donald Trump's own surprise victory in the state's presidential contest. Feingold managed to win six counties that Donald Trump won in the concurrent presidential race: Columbia, Crawford, Lafayette, Richland, Sauk and Vernon.
Background
In 2010, then-incumbent Democratic senator Russ Feingold ran for re-election to a fourth term in 2010 and was defeated by Republican nominee Ron Johnson.
In March 2013, Johnson announced that he had begun fundraising for his campaign. At that time, he had just $1,529 remaining in his campaign account after raising $16.1 million for the 2010 election, over half of which he self-funded. Johnson said in November 2014 that he would not self-finance another campaign, saying: "I made my $9 million investment in this country. I gave it once, I don't think I should do it again." On May 14, 2015, Feingold announced he would run to win back his former Senate seat. Ultimately, Feingold spent over $24 million on the campaign and ended up with more remaining cash than Johnson, who spent only $20 million.
After the Republicans took control of the Senate following the 2014 Senate elections, the election in Wisconsin was seen by many as a top target for the Democrats, who hoped to retake their majority in the traditionally blue state. Politico pointed to Johnson's "worrisome" favorability ratings as one of the main reasons for his vulnerability. A March 2014 Marquette University Law School poll found that just 29% of voters had a favorable opinion of him.
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Ron Johnson, incumbent U.S. Senator
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Russ Feingold, former U.S. Senator, and former U.S. Special Envoy for the African Great Lakes and the Congo-Kinshasa
- Scott Harbach, perennial candidate
Declined
- Mary Burke, businesswoman, member of the Madison school district board, former Wisconsin Secretary of Commerce and nominee for Governor of Wisconsin in 2014
- Chris Larson, state senator
- Ron Kind, U.S. Representative
- Gwen Moore, U.S. Representative
- Mark Pocan, U.S. Representative
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Russ Feingold | 303,282 | 90.14% | |
| Democratic | Scott Harbach | 33,185 | 9.86% | |
| Total votes | 336,467 | 100.00% | ||
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Declared
- Phil Anderson, chair of the Dane County, Wisconsin Libertarian Party and nominee for the State Assembly in 2014
General election
Candidates
- Ron Johnson (R), incumbent U.S. Senator
- Russ Feingold (D), former U.S. Senator, and former U.S. Special Envoy for the African Great Lakes and the Congo-Kinshasa
- Phil Anderson (L), chair of the Dane County, Wisconsin Libertarian Party and nominee for the State Assembly in 2014
Debates
| Dates | Location | Johnson | Feingold | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 14, 2016 | Green Bay, Wisconsin | Participant | Participant | |
| October 18, 2016 | Milwaukee, Wisconsin | Participant | Participant | Full debate |
Endorsements
Presidents
- George W. Bush, 43rd President of the United States
State Governors
- Scott Walker, Governor of Wisconsin and 2016 presidential candidate
U.S. Senators
- Lindsey Graham, South Carolina and 2016 presidential candidate
- John McCain, Arizona, 2000 presidential candidate and 2008 presidential nominee
U.S. Representatives
- Paul Ryan, Wisconsin and 54th Speaker of the House of Representatives
Individuals
- John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations
Organizations
- Associated Builders and Contractors
- Club for Growth
- National Federation of Independent Business
- NRA Political Victory Fund
- United States Chamber of Commerce
- American Conservative Union
Presidents
- Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States
Vice Presidents
- Joe Biden, 47th Vice President of the United States
U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials
- Chuck Hagel, 24th Secretary of Defense (Republican)
U.S. Senators
- Tammy Baldwin, Wisconsin
- Bernie Sanders, Vermont (Independent)
- Jon Tester, Montana
- Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts
U.S. Representatives
- Mark Pocan, Wisconsin
- Alan Grayson, Florida
Wisconsin State Senators
- Chris Larson
Labor unions
- AFSCME - American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees
- AFT - American Federation of Teachers
- IBEW - International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers
- LIUNA - Laborers' International Union of North America
- PFFW - Professional Fire Fighters of Wisconsin
- SEIU - Service Employees International Union
- USW - United Steelworkers
- WEAC - Wisconsin Education Association Council
Organizations
- Blue America
- Daily Kos
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
- Every Voice
- Human Rights Campaign
- League of Conservation Voters
- MoveOn.org
- National Organization for Women
- Our Revolution
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Sierra Club
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Tossup | November 2, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D (flip) | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report | Tilt D (flip) | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos | Lean D (flip) | November 8, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics | Tossup | November 7, 2016 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ron Johnson (R) | Russ Feingold (D) | Phil Anderson (L) | Other / Neither | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 2,246 | ± 4.6% | 49% | 48% | — | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 31–November 6, 2016 | 1,943 | ± 4.6% | 49% | 48% | — | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 28–November 3, 2016 | 1,568 | ± 4.6% | 48% | 49% | — | — | 3% |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | November 1–2, 2016 | 1,129 | ± 2.9% | 46% | 49% | — | — | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 27–November 2, 2016 | 1,271 | ± 4.6% | 48% | 48% | — | — | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 31–November 1, 2016 | 891 | ± 3.3% | 44% | 49% | — | — | 7% |
| Loras College | October 31–November 1, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 45% | 47% | 2% | — | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 26–November 1, 2016 | 1,103 | ± 4.6% | 50% | 48% | — | — | 2% |
| Marquette University | October 26–31, 2016 | 1,190 LV | ± 3.5% | 44% | 45% | 3% | 2% | 3% |
| 1,401 RV | ± 3.3% | 42% | 43% | 5% | 3% | 5% | ||
| SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 1,195 | ± 4.6% | 49% | 49% | — | — | 2% |
| Emerson College | October 27–28, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 44% | 49% | — | 4% | 3% |
| Let America Work^ | October 18–20, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 48% | 2% | — | 4% |
| Club for Growth^ | October 18–20, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.2% | 42% | 45% | — | — | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 18–19, 2016 | 804 | ± 3.5% | 41% | 47% | — | — | 12% |
| Monmouth University | October 15–18, 2016 | 403 | ± 4.9% | 44% | 52% | 2% | — | 2% |
| Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College | October 13–16, 2016 | 664 | ± 3.8% | 40% | 52% | 0% | 3% | 5% |
| Washington Post/SurveyMonkey | October 8–16, 2016 | 1,076 | ± 0.5% | 46% | 51% | — | — | 3% |
| Google Consumer Surveys | October 12–14, 2016 | 551 | ± 4.2% | 39% | 58% | — | — | 3% |
| Marquette University | October 6–9, 2016 | 839 LV | ± 3.9% | 44% | 46% | 4% | 1% | 4% |
| 46% | 48% | — | 1% | 4% | ||||
| 1,000 RV | ± 3.7% | 42% | 44% | 6% | 1% | 6% | ||
| 44% | 47% | — | 2% | 5% | ||||
| CBS News/YouGov | October 5–7, 2016 | 993 | ± 4.3% | 42% | 45% | — | — | 13% |
| Loras College | October 4–5, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 45% | 40% | — | 3% | 9% |
| Breitbart/Gravis Marketing | October 4, 2016 | 1,102 | ± 3.0% | 41% | 53% | — | — | 6% |
| Emerson College | September 19–20, 2016 | 700 | ± 3.6% | 42% | 52% | — | 3% | 4% |
| Marquette University | September 15–18, 2016 | 642 LV | ± 4.8% | 39% | 44% | 7% | — | 10% |
| 41% | 47% | — | — | 8% | ||||
| 802 RV | ± 4.4% | 37% | 44% | 8% | — | 10% | ||
| 40% | 46% | — | — | 11% | ||||
| Monmouth University | August 27–30, 2016 | 404 | ± 4.9% | 41% | 54% | 2% | — | 3% |
| Public Policy Polling | August 26–27, 2016 | 1,054 | ± 3.0% | 42% | 49% | — | — | 9% |
| Marquette University | August 25–28, 2016 | 650 LV | ± 5.0% | 42% | 45% | 6% | — | 7% |
| 45% | 48% | — | — | 7% | ||||
| 803 RV | ± 4.5% | 38% | 42% | 8% | — | 12% | ||
| 42% | 46% | — | — | 12% | ||||
| Global Strategy Group | August 25, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 37% | 55% | — | — | 8% |
| Let America Work^ | August 21–22, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 50% | — | — | 3% |
| Marquette University | August 4–7, 2016 | 683 LV | ± 5.0% | 39% | 50% | 7% | — | 4% |
| 42% | 53% | — | — | 6% | ||||
| 805 RV | ± 4.5% | 38% | 47% | 7% | — | 8% | ||
| 43% | 49% | — | — | 8% | ||||
| Let America Work^ | July 30–August 1, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 50% | — | — | 6% |
| Global Strategy Group | July 20, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 41% | 52% | — | — | 7% |
| Marquette University | July 7–10, 2016 | 665 LV | ± 4.5% | 40% | 46% | 7% | — | 7% |
| 44% | 49% | — | — | 7% | ||||
| 801 RV | ± 4.1% | 38% | 45% | 8% | — | 9% | ||
| 41% | 48% | — | — | 11% | ||||
| Public Policy Polling | June 22–23, 2016 | 843 | ± 3.4% | 37% | 50% | — | — | 13% |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps | June 11–20, 2016 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 45% | 46% | — | — | 9% |
| Marquette University | June 9–12, 2016 | 666 LV | ± 4.9% | 42% | 51% | — | — | 7% |
| 800 RV | ± 4.4% | 41% | 45% | — | — | 14% | ||
| Public Policy Polling | June 8–9, 2016 | 853 | ± 3.4% | 41% | 51% | — | — | 8% |
| Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College | April 12–15, 2016 | 616 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 51% | — | — | 6% |
| Emerson College | March 30–April 3, 2016 | 1,198 | ± 2.8% | 44% | 48% | — | 8% | — |
| Public Policy Polling | March 28–29, 2016 | 1,397 | ± 2.6% | 39% | 46% | — | — | 15% |
| Loras College | March 28–29, 2016 | 1,000 | ± 3.1% | 39% | 48% | — | 1% | 12% |
| Marquette University | March 24–28, 2016 | 957 LV | ± 4.1% | 45% | 48% | — | — | 7% |
| 1,405 RV | ± 3.3% | 42% | 47% | — | — | 11% | ||
| Marquette University | February 18–21, 2016 | 802 RV | ± 4.5% | 37% | 49% | — | — | 14% |
| Marquette University | January 21–24, 2016 | 806 RV | ± 4.0% | 37% | 50% | — | — | 13% |
| Let America Work^ | November 16–18, 2015 | 900 | ± 3.3% | 44% | 45% | — | — | 11% |
| Marquette University | November 12–15, 2015 | 803 RV | ± 4.2% | 38% | 49% | — | — | 13% |
| Democracy Corps | October 24–28, 2015 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 46% | 51% | — | — | 3% |
| Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College | October 14–17, 2015 | 603 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 51% | — | 2% | 7% |
| Marquette University | September 24–28, 2015 | 803 RV | ± 4.1% | 36% | 50% | — | 7% | 7% |
| End Citizens United | September 10–14, 2015 | 775 | ± 3.6% | 39% | 47% | — | — | 14% |
| Marquette University | August 13–16, 2015 | 802 RV | ± 3.5% | 42% | 47% | — | — | 12% |
| Marquette University | April 7–10, 2015 | 803 RV | ± 3.5% | 38% | 54% | — | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling | March 6–8, 2015 | 1,071 | ± 3.0% | 41% | 50% | — | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 17–20, 2014 | 1,144 | ± 2.9% | 41% | 47% | — | — | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 13–16, 2013 | 1,180 | ± 2.9% | 42% | 49% | — | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling | February 21–24, 2013 | 807 | ± 2.3% | 42% | 52% | — | — | 6% |
^ Internal poll taken for Ron Johnson.
with Mary Burke
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ron Johnson (R) | Mary Burke (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | March 6–8, 2015 | 1,071 | ± 3.0% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
with Mark Pocan
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ron Johnson (R) | Mark Pocan (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | March 6–8, 2015 | 1,071 | ± 3.0% | 43% | 36% | 20% |
with Gwen Moore
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ron Johnson (R) | Gwen Moore (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | March 6–8, 2015 | 1,071 | ± 3.0% | 45% | 37% | — | 18% |
with Ron Kind
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ron Johnson (R) | Ron Kind (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | March 6–8, 2015 | 1,071 | ± 3.0% | 43% | 37% | — | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 17–20, 2014 | 1,144 | ± 2.9% | 41% | 39% | — | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 13–16, 2013 | 1,180 | ± 2.9% | 43% | 40% | — | 17% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ron Johnson (incumbent) | 1,479,471 | 50.17% | −1.69% | |
| Democratic | Russ Feingold | 1,380,335 | 46.81% | −0.21% | |
| Libertarian | Phil Anderson | 87,531 | 2.97% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 1,404 | 0.05% | +0.01% | ||
| Total votes | 2,948,741 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Columbia (largest municipality: Portage)
- Lafayette (largest municipality: Darlington)
- Richland (largest municipality: Richland Center)
By congressional district
Johnson won six of eight congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.
| District | Johnson | Feingold | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 56% | 41% | Paul Ryan |
| 2nd | 30% | 67% | Mark Pocan |
| 3rd | 49% | 47% | Ron Kind |
| 4th | 26% | 71% | Gwen Moore |
| 5th | 63% | 35% | Jim Sensenbrenner |
| 6th | 58% | 38% | Glenn Grothman |
| 7th | 57% | 40% | Sean Duffy |
| 8th | 59% | 38% | Reid Ribble |
| Mike Gallagher |
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