The 2018 United States Senate election in Mississippi took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Mississippi. Incumbent Republican Roger Wicker was re-elected to a second full term, defeating his Democratic challenger, David Baria.
November 6, 2018 | |||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 49.7% | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Wicker: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% 90–100% Baria: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% 90% | |||||||||||||||||
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The candidate filing deadline was March 1, 2018, and the primary election was held on June 5, 2018, with a runoff on June 26 if a party's primary failed to produce a majority winner. The race took place on the same day as the nonpartisan jungle primary for the other U.S. Senate seat in Mississippi, which was vacated by Thad Cochran in the spring of 2018.
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Richard Boyanton, businessman
- Roger Wicker, incumbent U.S. senator
Withdrawn
- Chris McDaniel, state senator and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 (running for the Class 2 U.S. Senate seat)
Endorsements
Roger Wicker
- U.S. executive branch officials
- George W. Bush, 43rd president of the United States
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States
- Governors
- Phil Bryant, Mississippi
- Statewide officials
- Greg Snowden, speaker pro tempore of the Mississippi House of Representatives
- U.S. senators
- Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania
- Mississippi state officials
- Dane Maxwell, mayor of Pascagoula
Chris McDaniel (withdrawn)
- Political operatives
- Tommy Barnett, treasurer of Remember Mississippi super PAC
- Laura Van Overschelde, chair of the Mississippi Tea Party
- Grant Sowell, chair of the Tupelo Tea Party
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Roger Wicker | Chris McDaniel | Tate Reeves | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triumph Campaigns | April 10–11, 2018 | 446 | – | 66% | 16% | – | 18% |
| JMC Analytics | February 15–17, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 38% | – | 15% | 47% |
| 38% | 20% | – | 42% | ||||
| Mason-Dixon | December 13–15, 2017 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 49% | 33% | – | 18% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R-Wicker) | April 22–25, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.2% | 55% | 30% | – | 14% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Roger Wicker (incumbent) | 130,118 | 82.79% | |
| Republican | Richard Boyanton | 27,052 | 17.21% | |
| Total votes | 157,170 | 100% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- David Baria, Mississippi House of Representatives Minority Leader
- Jensen Bohren
- Jerone Garland
- Victor G. Maurice Jr.
- Omeria Scott, state representative
- Howard Sherman, businessman and husband of actress Sela Ward
Declined
- Jeramey Anderson, state representative (running for MS-4)
- Brandon Presley, chair of the Mississippi Public Service Commission
Endorsements
Jensen Bohren
- Organizations
- Jackpine Radicals
- Mississippi DSA
- Sustainable Politician Project
- Vote STEM
David Baria
- Organizations
- End Citizens United
- Mississippi AFL-CIO
- Mississippi Association of Educators
- Sierra Club
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | David Baria | Jensen Bohren | Omeria Scott | Howard Sherman | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triumph Campaigns | April 10–11, 2018 | 446 | 7% | 4% | 9% | 2% | 79% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | David Baria | Chuck Espy | Jim Hood | Bennie Thompson | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triumph Campaigns | January 29, 2018 | 2,145 | ± 1.8% | – | – | 33% | 47% | 20% |
| 10% | 34% | – | – | 56% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Howard Sherman | 27,957 | 31.79% | |
| Democratic | David Baria | 27,244 | 30.98% | |
| Democratic | Omeria Scott | 21,278 | 24.20% | |
| Democratic | Victor G. Maurice Jr. | 4,361 | 4.96% | |
| Democratic | Jerone Garland | 4,266 | 4.85% | |
| Democratic | Jensen Bohren | 2,825 | 3.21% | |
| Total votes | 87,931 | 100% | ||
Runoff results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | David Baria | 44,156 | 58.64% | |
| Democratic | Howard Sherman | 31,149 | 41.36% | |
| Total votes | 75,305 | 100% | ||
Independents and third party candidates
Libertarian Party
Declared
- Danny Bedwell, candidate for MS-01 in 2012 and 2014
Reform Party
Declared
- Shawn O'Hara, perennial candidate
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Safe R | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections | Safe R | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News | Likely R | July 9, 2018 |
| CNN | Safe R | July 12, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics | Safe R | June 2018 |
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
| Roger Wicker (R) | $5,349,028 | $3,831,418 | $3,138,044 |
| David Baria (D) | $532,629 | $528,325 | $72,922 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission | |||
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Roger Wicker (R) | David Baria (D) | Danny Bedwell (L) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | November 2–4, 2018 | 1,003 | – | 48% | 40% | 5% | 3% | – |
| Marist College | October 13–18, 2018 | 511 LV | ± 6.1% | 57% | 31% | 2% | 2% | 9% |
| 60% | 32% | – | 2% | 7% | ||||
| 856 RV | ± 4.7% | 54% | 30% | 3% | 2% | 10% | ||
| 57% | 32% | – | 2% | 9% | ||||
| SurveyMonkey | September 9–24, 2018 | 985 | ± 4.3% | 43% | 29% | – | – | 27% |
| Triumph Campaigns | July 30–31, 2018 | 2,100 | ± 3.5% | 53% | 32% | 1% | 2% | 12% |
| Triumph Campaigns | April 10–11, 2018 | 1,000 | ± 3.0% | 48% | 31% | – | – | 21% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Roger Wicker (incumbent) | 547,619 | 58.49% | +1.33% | |
| Democratic | David Baria | 369,567 | 39.47% | −1.08% | |
| Libertarian | Danny Bedwell | 12,981 | 1.39% | N/A | |
| Reform | Shawn O'Hara | 6,048 | 0.65% | −0.41% | |
| Total votes | 936,215 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
By county
| County | Roger Wicker Republican | David Baria Democratic | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Adams | 4,487 | 41.70% | 6,097 | 56.66% | 176 | 1.64% | -1,610 | -14.96% | 10,760 |
| Alcorn | 8,167 | 80.34% | 1,780 | 17.51% | 219 | 2.15% | 6,387 | 62.83% | 10,166 |
| Amite | 3,246 | 60.53% | 1,966 | 36.66% | 151 | 2.82% | 1,280 | 23.87% | 5,363 |
| Attala | 3,728 | 60.82% | 2,291 | 37.37% | 111 | 1.81% | 1,437 | 23.44% | 6,130 |
| Benton | 1,645 | 59.09% | 1,091 | 39.19% | 48 | 1.72% | 554 | 19.90% | 2,784 |
| Bolivar | 3,938 | 37.11% | 6,469 | 60.96% | 205 | 1.93% | -2,531 | -23.85% | 10,612 |
| Calhoun | 3,296 | 71.67% | 1,230 | 26.74% | 73 | 1.59% | 2,066 | 44.92% | 4,599 |
| Carroll | 2,936 | 69.28% | 1,212 | 28.60% | 90 | 2.12% | 1,724 | 40.68% | 4,238 |
| Chickasaw | 3,317 | 55.97% | 2,512 | 42.39% | 97 | 1.64% | 805 | 13.58% | 5,926 |
| Choctaw | 2,101 | 71.15% | 791 | 26.79% | 61 | 2.07% | 1,310 | 44.36% | 2,953 |
| Claiborne | 653 | 20.15% | 2,468 | 76.17% | 119 | 3.67% | -1,815 | -56.02% | 3,240 |
| Clarke | 3,944 | 65.84% | 1,933 | 32.27% | 113 | 1.89% | 2,011 | 33.57% | 5,990 |
| Clay | 3,411 | 44.82% | 4,091 | 53.76% | 108 | 1.42% | -680 | -8.94% | 7,610 |
| Coahoma | 2,178 | 35.05% | 3,858 | 62.09% | 178 | 2.86% | -1,680 | -27.04% | 6,214 |
| Copiah | 5,052 | 49.63% | 4,867 | 47.81% | 261 | 2.56% | 185 | 1.82% | 10,180 |
| Covington | 4,242 | 62.49% | 2,382 | 35.09% | 164 | 2.42% | 1,860 | 27.40% | 6,788 |
| DeSoto | 32,750 | 64.37% | 16,858 | 33.13% | 1,271 | 2.50% | 15,892 | 31.23% | 50,879 |
| Forrest | 12,539 | 56.22% | 9,134 | 40.95% | 630 | 2.82% | 3,405 | 15.27% | 22,303 |
| Franklin | 1,999 | 63.56% | 1,050 | 33.39% | 96 | 3.05% | 949 | 30.17% | 3,145 |
| George | 6,060 | 84.86% | 866 | 12.13% | 215 | 3.01% | 5,194 | 72.73% | 7,141 |
| Greene | 2,923 | 78.30% | 703 | 18.83% | 107 | 2.87% | 2,220 | 59.47% | 3,733 |
| Grenada | 4,348 | 56.87% | 3,176 | 41.54% | 121 | 1.58% | 1,172 | 15.33% | 7,645 |
| Hancock | 9,989 | 71.87% | 3,692 | 26.56% | 218 | 1.57% | 6,297 | 45.31% | 13,899 |
| Harrison | 32,414 | 62.67% | 18,391 | 35.56% | 918 | 1.77% | 14,023 | 27.11% | 51,723 |
| Hinds | 21,644 | 27.50% | 55,780 | 70.87% | 1,282 | 1.63% | -34,136 | -43.37% | 78,706 |
| Holmes | 1,068 | 19.87% | 4,222 | 78.55% | 85 | 1.58% | -3,154 | -58.68% | 5,375 |
| Humphreys | 961 | 30.57% | 2,082 | 66.22% | 101 | 3.21% | -1,121 | -35.66% | 3,144 |
| Issaquena | 258 | 48.50% | 261 | 49.06% | 13 | 2.44% | -3 | -0.56% | 532 |
| Itawamba | 5,858 | 86.22% | 783 | 11.52% | 153 | 2.25% | 5,075 | 74.70% | 6,794 |
| Jackson | 26,544 | 67.19% | 12,179 | 30.83% | 784 | 1.98% | 14,365 | 36.36% | 39,507 |
| Jasper | 2,988 | 47.68% | 3,149 | 50.25% | 130 | 2.07% | -161 | -2.57% | 6,267 |
| Jefferson | 562 | 18.37% | 2,398 | 78.37% | 100 | 3.27% | -1,836 | -60.00% | 3,060 |
| Jefferson Davis | 1,958 | 41.65% | 2,640 | 56.16% | 103 | 2.19% | -682 | -14.51% | 4,701 |
| Jones | 14,852 | 68.48% | 6,143 | 28.33% | 692 | 3.19% | 8,709 | 40.16% | 21,687 |
| Kemper | 1,432 | 41.74% | 1,955 | 56.98% | 44 | 1.28% | -523 | -15.24% | 3,431 |
| Lafayette | 9,256 | 56.13% | 6,981 | 42.33% | 253 | 1.53% | 2,275 | 13.80% | 16,490 |
| Lamar | 14,777 | 74.97% | 4,437 | 22.51% | 497 | 2.52% | 10,340 | 52.46% | 19,711 |
| Lauderdale | 14,217 | 61.45% | 8,610 | 37.21% | 309 | 1.34% | 5,607 | 24.23% | 23,136 |
| Lawrence | 3,196 | 65.75% | 1,558 | 32.05% | 107 | 2.20% | 1,638 | 33.70% | 4,861 |
| Leake | 3,666 | 58.49% | 2,470 | 39.41% | 132 | 2.11% | 1,196 | 19.08% | 6,268 |
| Lee | 17,413 | 67.86% | 7,654 | 29.83% | 594 | 2.31% | 9,759 | 38.03% | 25,661 |
| Leflore | 2,850 | 34.07% | 5,352 | 63.99% | 162 | 1.94% | -2,502 | -29.91% | 8,364 |
| Lincoln | 8,576 | 70.16% | 3,453 | 28.25% | 194 | 1.59% | 5,123 | 41.91% | 12,223 |
| Lowndes | 10,720 | 54.57% | 8,638 | 43.97% | 288 | 1.47% | 2,082 | 10.60% | 19,646 |
| Madison | 23,632 | 58.27% | 16,283 | 40.15% | 638 | 1.57% | 7,349 | 18.12% | 40,553 |
| Marion | 5,867 | 66.66% | 2,734 | 31.06% | 200 | 2.27% | 3,133 | 35.60% | 8,801 |
| Marshall | 5,415 | 47.87% | 5,692 | 50.31% | 206 | 1.82% | -277 | -2.45% | 11,313 |
| Monroe | 7,739 | 66.17% | 3,802 | 32.51% | 154 | 1.32% | 3,937 | 33.66% | 11,695 |
| Montgomery | 2,254 | 58.70% | 1,526 | 39.74% | 60 | 1.56% | 728 | 18.96% | 3,840 |
| Neshoba | 5,861 | 73.76% | 1,961 | 24.68% | 124 | 1.56% | 3,900 | 49.08% | 7,946 |
| Newton | 4,965 | 69.89% | 1,986 | 27.96% | 153 | 2.15% | 2,979 | 41.93% | 7,104 |
| Noxubee | 1,085 | 27.69% | 2,788 | 71.14% | 46 | 1.17% | -1,703 | -43.45% | 3,919 |
| Oktibbeha | 7,134 | 50.17% | 6,798 | 47.81% | 287 | 2.02% | 336 | 2.36% | 14,219 |
| Panola | 5,804 | 51.80% | 5,212 | 46.51% | 189 | 1.69% | 592 | 5.28% | 11,205 |
| Pearl River | 12,373 | 78.79% | 2,899 | 18.46% | 432 | 2.75% | 9,474 | 60.33% | 15,704 |
| Perry | 2,913 | 75.39% | 853 | 22.08% | 98 | 2.54% | 2,060 | 53.31% | 3,864 |
| Pike | 6,502 | 51.61% | 5,857 | 46.49% | 239 | 1.90% | 645 | 5.12% | 12,598 |
| Pontotoc | 7,588 | 79.10% | 1,693 | 17.65% | 312 | 3.25% | 5,895 | 61.45% | 9,593 |
| Prentiss | 5,597 | 78.03% | 1,450 | 20.21% | 126 | 1.76% | 4,147 | 57.81% | 7,173 |
| Quitman | 872 | 36.50% | 1,460 | 61.11% | 57 | 2.39% | -588 | -24.61% | 2,389 |
| Rankin | 37,913 | 73.43% | 12,523 | 24.26% | 1,194 | 2.31% | 25,390 | 49.18% | 51,630 |
| Scott | 4,600 | 60.19% | 2,926 | 38.29% | 116 | 1.52% | 1,674 | 21.91% | 7,642 |
| Sharkey | 596 | 35.52% | 1,046 | 62.34% | 36 | 2.15% | -450 | -26.82% | 1,678 |
| Simpson | 5,697 | 65.24% | 2,855 | 32.69% | 181 | 2.07% | 2,842 | 32.54% | 8,733 |
| Smith | 4,394 | 75.19% | 1,298 | 22.21% | 152 | 2.60% | 3,096 | 52.98% | 5,844 |
| Stone | 4,052 | 76.32% | 1,142 | 21.51% | 115 | 2.17% | 2,910 | 54.81% | 5,309 |
| Sunflower | 2,457 | 34.18% | 4,579 | 63.69% | 153 | 2.13% | -2,122 | -29.52% | 7,189 |
| Tallahatchie | 1,950 | 47.15% | 2,095 | 50.65% | 91 | 2.20% | -145 | -3.51% | 4,136 |
| Tate | 5,680 | 66.58% | 2,638 | 30.92% | 213 | 2.50% | 3,042 | 35.66% | 8,531 |
| Tippah | 5,536 | 80.16% | 1,229 | 17.80% | 141 | 2.04% | 4,307 | 62.37% | 6,906 |
| Tishomingo | 5,125 | 84.49% | 788 | 12.99% | 153 | 2.52% | 4,337 | 71.50% | 6,066 |
| Tunica | 779 | 31.41% | 1,630 | 65.73% | 71 | 2.86% | -851 | -34.31% | 2,480 |
| Union | 6,779 | 82.28% | 1,297 | 15.74% | 163 | 1.98% | 5,482 | 66.54% | 8,239 |
| Walthall | 3,008 | 59.71% | 1,919 | 38.09% | 111 | 2.20% | 1,089 | 21.62% | 5,038 |
| Warren | 8,206 | 54.04% | 6,706 | 44.16% | 273 | 1.80% | 1,500 | 9.88% | 15,185 |
| Washington | 4,519 | 33.27% | 8,893 | 65.48% | 170 | 1.25% | -4,374 | -32.20% | 13,582 |
| Wayne | 4,376 | 60.92% | 2,638 | 36.73% | 169 | 2.35% | 1,738 | 24.20% | 7,183 |
| Webster | 3,114 | 79.50% | 733 | 18.71% | 70 | 1.79% | 2,381 | 60.79% | 3,917 |
| Wilkinson | 950 | 33.56% | 1,823 | 64.39% | 58 | 2.05% | -873 | -30.84% | 2,831 |
| Winston | 3,976 | 56.95% | 2,900 | 41.54% | 105 | 1.50% | 1,076 | 15.41% | 6,981 |
| Yalobusha | 2,574 | 55.31% | 2,011 | 43.21% | 69 | 1.48% | 563 | 12.10% | 4,654 |
| Yazoo | 3,578 | 51.41% | 3,251 | 46.71% | 131 | 1.88% | 327 | 4.70% | 6,960 |
| Totals | 547,619 | 58.49% | 369,567 | 39.47% | 19,029 | 2.03% | 178,052 | 19.02% | 936,215 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Copiah (largest city: Hazlehurst)
- Panola (largest city: Batesville)
- Pike (largest city: McComb)
- Yazoo (largest city: Yazoo City)
By congressional district
Wicker won three of four congressional districts.
| District | Wicker | Baria | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 66% | 32% | Trent Kelly |
| 2nd | 38% | 61% | Bennie Thompson |
| 3rd | 62% | 36% | Michael Guest |
| 4th | 68% | 30% | Steven Palazzo |
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