2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

The 2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Pennsylvania, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. The primary elections were held on May 15. Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. ran for re-election to a third term. Casey, who faced no primary opposition, defeated the Republican nominee, Lou Barletta, Green Party nominee Neal Gale, and Libertarian Party nominee Dale Kerns. Casey was the first senator to be elected to a third term from Pennsylvania since Arlen Specter in 1992, and the first Pennsylvania Democrat to be popularly elected to three terms in the Senate.

2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

← 2012
November 6, 2018
2024 →
Turnout58.18%
 
Nominee Bob Casey Jr. Lou Barletta
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 2,792,437 2,134,848
Percentage 55.74% 42.62%

Casey:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Barletta:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data

U.S. senator before election

Bob Casey Jr.
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Bob Casey Jr.
Democratic

Democratic primary

Candidates

On ballot

  • Bob Casey Jr., incumbent U.S. Senator

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) Unopposed
Total votes 752,008 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

On ballot

  • Lou Barletta, U.S. Representative from Hazleton
  • Jim Christiana, state representative from Beaver

Withdrew

  • Paul Addis, businessman (running for PA-5)
  • Cynthia E. Ayers, cyber security consultant and former National Security Agency employee
  • Jeff Bartos, real estate developer (running for lieutenant governor)
  • Paul DeLong, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2004
  • Bobby Lawrence, small business owner (endorsed Dale Kerns)
  • Rick Saccone, state representative (ran for PA-18, ran for PA-14)
  • Andrew Shecktor, Berwick Borough Councilman (running for PA-9)

Declined

  • Mike Kelly, U.S. Representative
  • Pat Meehan, former U.S. Representative
  • Dave Reed, Majority Leader of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives

Endorsements

Jim Christiana

State senators

  • Jake Corman, State Senator from the 34th district (1999–2022), Pennsylvania State Senate Majority Leader (2015–2020)

State representatives

  • Kerry Benninghoff, State Representative from the 171st district (1997–present)
  • Garth Everett, State Representative from the 84th district (2007–2020)
  • Mark Mustio, State Representative from the 44th district (2003–2019)
  • Dave L. Reed, State Representative from the 62nd district (2003–2018), Pennsylvania House Majority Leader (2015–2018)
  • Jesse Topper, State Representative from the 78th district (2014–present)
  • Mike Turzai, 140th Speaker of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives (2015–2020), State Representative from the 28th district (2001–2020), candidate for Governor in 2018

Newspapers

  • The Beaver County Times
Cynthia E. Ayers (withdrew)

Individuals

  • Brigadier General Ken Chrosniak, former instructor at the U.S. Army War College
  • Henry Cooper, former Director of the Strategic Defense Initiative
  • Dr. Brian Hay, business executive and national security expert
  • Major General Robert B. Newman Jr., former Adjutant General of Virginia (USAF)
  • Dr. Peter Pry, Director of the United States Nuclear Strategy Forum, an advisory board to Congress on policies to counter Weapons of Mass Destruction.
Bobby Lawrence (withdrew)

Individuals

  • Jeremy Hanson, host of Unleashed: The Jeremy Hanson Show

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Lou
Barletta
Jim
Christiana
Other Undecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R-Christiana) April 2018 >400 32% 11% 58%
Bellwether Research (R-Addis) September 20–24, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 22% <10% 60%

Results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Lou Barletta 433,312 63.03%
Republican Jim Christiana 254,118 36.97%
Total votes 687,430 100.00%

Libertarian Party

Dale Kerns ran unopposed for the Libertarian nomination and received the official nomination from the Pennsylvania Libertarian Party at the state convention on March 6, 2018.

Candidates

Nominee

  • Dale Kerns, former Republican Eddystone Borough council member and board of directors member for Goodwill Industries

Green Party

Candidates

Nominee

  • Neal Gale, clean energy consultant

General election

Candidates

  • Lou Barletta (R), U.S. Representative
  • Bob Casey Jr. (D), incumbent senator
  • Neal Gale (G), clean energy consultant
  • Dale Kerns (L), former Eddystone Borough council member

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report Likely D October 26, 2018
Inside Elections Safe D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe D November 5, 2018
Daily Kos Safe D November 5, 2018
Fox News Likely D November 5, 2018
CNN Likely D November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics Likely D November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements

Lou Barletta (R)

Federal officials

U.S. Senators

  • Rick Santorum, U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania (1995–2007)

U.S. Representatives

  • Ryan Costello, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 6th congressional district (2015–2019)
  • Charlie Dent, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district (2005–2018)
  • Brian Fitzpatrick, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district (2017–2019)
  • Mike Kelly, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district (2011–2019)
  • Tom Marino, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district (2011–2019)
  • Pat Meehan, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district (2011–2018)
  • Scott Perry, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district (2013–2019)
  • Keith Rothfus, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district (2013–2019)
  • Bill Shuster, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 9th congressional district (2001–2019)
  • Lloyd Smucker, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 16th congressional district (2017–2019)
  • Glenn Thompson, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 5th congressional district (2009–2019)

State officials

  • Jim Cawley, 32nd Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania (2011–2015)

State senators

  • Lisa Baker, state senator from the 20th district (2007–present)
  • Camera Bartolotta, state senator from the 46th district (2015–present)
  • John DiSanto, state senator from the 15th district (2017–present)
  • John Gordner, state senator from the 27th district (2003–2022)
  • Scott Martin, state senator from the 13th district (2017–present)
  • Mike Regan, state senator from the 31st district (2017–present)
  • Mario Scavello, state senator from the 40th district (2015–2022)
  • Robert Tomlinson, state senator from the 6th district (1995–present)
  • Kim Ward, state senator from the 39th district (2009–present)

State representatives

  • Steve Bloom, state representative from the 199th district (2011–2019)
  • Sheryl Delozier, state representative from the 88th district (2009–present)
  • Doyle Heffley, state representative from the 122nd district (2011–present)
  • Sue Helm, state representative from the 104th district (2007–present)
  • Dawn Keefer, state representative from the 92nd district (2017–present)
  • Fred Keller, state representative from the 85th district (2011–2019)
  • Jerry Knowles, state representative from the 124th district (2009–present)
  • Ryan Mackenzie, state representative from the 134th district (2012–present)
  • John Maher, state representative from the 40th district (1997–2019)
  • Kurt Masser, state representative from the 107th district (2011–present)
  • Tom Mehaffie, state representative from the 106th district (2017–present)
  • Daryl Metcalfe, state representative from the 12th district (1999–present)
  • Dave Millard, state representative from the 109th district (2004–present)
  • Kristin Phillips-Hill, state representative from the 93rd district (2015–2019)
  • Greg Rothman, state representative from the 87th district (2015–present)
  • Justin Simmons, state representative from the 131st district (2011–2021)
  • Mike Tobash, state representative from the 125th district (2011–2020)
  • Tarah Toohil, state representative from the 116th district (2011–present)

Individuals

  • Nigel Farage, chair of Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy (2004–2019), Member of the European Parliament for South East England (1999–2020), and former chair and leader of the UK Independence Party (1998–2000)
  • Paul Mango, candidate for Governor in 2018
  • Eric Trump, businessman and son of U.S. President Donald Trump
  • Lara Trump, television host and daughter-in-law of U.S. President Donald Trump

Organizations

  • Associated Builders and Contractors
  • Fraternal Order of Police Fort Pitt Lodge #1
  • National Electrical Contractors Association (NECA)
  • National Federation of Independent Business
  • National Right to Life
  • Penn-Del-Jersey Chapter of NECA
  • Pennsylvania GOP
  • Students For Trump
  • Western Pennsylvania Chapter of NECA

Newspapers

  • The Patriot-News
Bob Casey Jr. (D)

Federal officials

U.S. Senators

  • Cory Booker, U.S. Senator from New Jersey (2013–present)
  • Catherine Cortez Masto, U.S. Senator from Nevada (2017–present)
  • Dick Durbin, Senate Minority Whip (2015–2021), U.S. Senator from Illinois (1997–present)
  • Kamala Harris, U.S. Senator from California (2017–2021)
  • Ed Markey, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–present)
  • Jeff Merkley, U.S. Senator from Oregon (2009–present)
  • Gary Peters, U.S. Senator from Michigan (2015–present)
  • Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–present)

U.S. Representatives

  • Dwight Evans, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 2nd congressional district (2016–2019)
  • Conor Lamb, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district (2018–2019)

Local and state officials

  • John Fetterman, Mayor of Braddock (2006–2019) and Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 2018
  • Josh Shapiro, 50th Attorney General of Pennsylvania (2017–2023)
  • Tom Wolf, 47th Governor of Pennsylvania (2015–2023)

Labor unions

Organizations

  • Council for a Livable World
  • End Citizens United
  • Equality Pennsylvania
  • League of Conservation Voters
  • National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare
  • Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund
  • Sierra Club
Neal Gale (G)

Organizations

  • Green Party
  • Green Party of Pennsylvania
Dale Kerns (L)

Governors

  • Gary Johnson, 29th Governor of New Mexico (1995–2003), Libertarian nominee for President in 2012 and 2016, nominee for Senate in New Mexico in 2018
  • Bill Weld, 68th Governor of Massachusetts (1991–1997), Libertarian nominee for Vice President in 2016

State and local politicians

  • Brandon Magoon, Majority Inspector of Elections Erie 6-1 (Republican)
  • Jennifer Moore, Upper Providence Township Auditor (Libertarian)
  • Bruno Novak, Judge of Elections, Hempfield-3 (Libertarian)
  • Michael Oehling Jr, Buffalo Township Republican Committeeman and Auditor

Individuals

  • Bobby Lawrence, former Republican U.S. Senate candidate and small business owner

Organizations

  • Libertarian Party
  • Libertarian Party of Pennsylvania

Polling

%support01020304050602018/03/52018/07/022018/09/202018/11/4Casey Jr.BarlettaOther/UndecidedOpinion polling for the 2018 United States S...
View source data.
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bob
Casey Jr. (D)
Lou
Barletta (R)
Other Undecided
Change Research November 2–4, 2018 1,833 51% 44% 3%
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 56% 39% 1% 4%
Muhlenberg College October 28 – November 1, 2018 421 ± 5.5% 54% 40%
Franklin & Marshall College October 22–28, 2018 214 LV ± 9.5% 50% 35% 14%
537 RV ± 6.0% 50% 31% 4% 14%
Morning Consult October 1–2, 2018 1,188 ± 3.0% 47% 32% 21%
Franklin & Marshall College September 17–23, 2018 204 LV 50% 33% 15%
545 RV ± 6.1% 48% 30% 4% 20%
Ipsos September 12–20, 2018 1,080 ± 3.0% 53% 37% 3% 7%
Muhlenberg College September 13–19, 2018 404 ± 5.5% 53% 35% 7% 6%
Rasmussen Reports September 12–13, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 52% 38% 2% 8%
Franklin & Marshall College August 20–26, 2018 222 LV 47% 34% 1% 19%
511 RV ± 6.1% 48% 29% 3% 20%
NBC News/Marist August 12–16, 2018 713 ± 4.2% 53% 38% 1% 8%
Commonwealth Leaders Fund (R) August 13–15, 2018 2,012 ± 3.6% 47% 45% 2% 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 990 ± 4.5% 55% 41% 5%
Suffolk University June 21–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 47% 32% 1% 21%
Franklin & Marshall College June 4–10, 2018 472 ± 6.5% 44% 27% 1% 28%
Muhlenberg College April 4–12, 2018 414 ± 5.5% 48% 32% 8% 18%
Franklin & Marshall College March 19–26, 2018 423 ± 6.8% 43% 25% 2% 30%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) March 15–16, 2018 1,056 ± 3.0% 54% 36% 10%
SurveyMonkey/Axios February 12 – March 5, 2018 2,165 ± 3.8% 52% 43% 5%
Hypothetical polling

with Jim Christiana

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bob
Casey Jr. (D)
Jim
Christiana (R)
Other Undecided
Muhlenberg College April 4–12, 2018 414 ± 5.5% 48% 29% 3% 20%

with generic Democrat and Republican

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) March 15–16, 2018 1,056 ± 3.0% 53% 41% 7%

Results

United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2018
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) 2,792,437 55.74% +2.05%
Republican Lou Barletta 2,134,848 42.62% −1.97%
Libertarian Dale Kerns 50,907 1.02% −0.70%
Green Neal Gale 31,208 0.62% N/A
Total votes 5,009,400 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Results by county

County Bob Casey Jr.
Democratic
Lou Barletta
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Adams 14,880 38.054% 23,419 59.892% 803 2.054% −8,539 −21.838% 39,102
Allegheny 355,907 65.7015% 176,351 32.5549% 9,445 1.7436% 179,556 33.1466% 541,703
Armstrong 8,065 28.3849% 19,575 68.8945% 773 2.7206% −11,510 −40.5096% 28,413
Beaver 34,442 50.92% 31,916 47.18% 1,284 1.90% 2,526 3.74% 68,884
Bedford 4,567 24.26% 14,044 74.61% 212 1.13% −9,477 −50.35% 18,823
Berks 73,714 51.00% 68,159 47.16% 2,660 1.84% 5,555 3.84% 144,533
Blair 14,599 33.82138% 27,826 64.46427% 740 1.71435% −13,227 −30.6429% 43,165
Bradford 6,926 34.07123% 13,032 64.10862% 370 1.82015% −6,106 −30.03739% 20,328
Bucks 165,408 56.20% 124,133 42.18% 4,776 1.62% 41,275 14.02% 294,317
Butler 31,010 39.009% 46,875 58.966% 1,610 2.025% −15,865 −19.957% 79,495
Cambria 21,590 43.52% 27,367 55.17% 650 1.31% −5,777 −11.65% 49,607
Cameron 653 37.00% 1,080 61.19% 32 1.81% −427 −24.19% 1,765
Carbon 8,739 38.71% 13,519 59.89% 316 1.40% −4,780 −31.46% 22,574
Centre 34,778 57.33% 24,332 40.11% 1,554 2.56% 10,446 17.22% 60,664
Chester 140,138 59.60% 92,380 39.29% 2,613 1.11% 47,758 20.31% 235,131
Clarion 4,924 35.09% 8,838 62.99% 269 1.92% −3,914 −27.90% 14,031
Clearfield 9,540 35.59% 16,852 62.87% 411 1.54% −7,312 −27.28% 26,803
Clinton 5,289 42.73% 6,869 55.49% 220 1.78% −1,580 −12.76% 18,448
Columbia 8,837 39.036% 13,437 59.356% 364 1.608% −4,600 −20.320% 22,638
Crawford 11,720 39.02% 17,813 59.31% 502 1.67% −6,093 −20.29% 30,035
Cumberland 47,738 45.726% 54,525 52.227% 2,137 2.047% −6,787 −6.501% 104,400
Dauphin 59,533 54.764% 47,152 43.375% 2,023 1.861% 12,381 11.389% 108,708
Delaware 163,216 65.03% 84,423 33.63% 3,363 1.34% 78,793 31.40% 251,002
Elk 4,498 39.87% 6,610 58.59% 174 1.54% −2,112 −18.72% 11,282
Erie 58,906 58.39% 40,348 39.99% 1,635 1.62% 18,558 18.40% 100,889
Fayette 19,563 48.06% 20,514 50.40% 628 1.54% −951 −2.34% 40,735
Forest 693 35.87% 1,201 62.16% 38 1.97% −508 −26.29% 1,932
Franklin 17,385 31.59% 36,735 66.76% 907 1.65% −19,350 −35.17% 55,027
Fulton 1,061 20.00% 4,173 78.68% 70 1.32% −3,112 −58.68% 5,304
Greene 5,819 46.8217% 6,422 51.6736% 187 1.5047% −603 −4.8519% 12,428
Huntingdon 5,126 32.2167% 10,491 65.9355% 294 1.8478% −5,365 −33.7188% 15,911
Indiana 12,702 42.995% 16,314 55.221% 527 1.784% −3,612 −12.226% 29,543
Jefferson 4,437 28.49% 10,872 69.80% 267 1.71% −6,435 −41.31% 15,576
Juniata 2,412 28.48% 5,853 69.12% 203 2.40% −3,441 −40.64% 8,468
Lackawanna 51,444 61.057% 31,922 37.887% 890 1.056% 19,522 23.170% 84,256
Lancaster 90,521 44.73% 107,454 53.10% 4,389 2.17% −16,933 −8.37% 202,364
Lawrence 14,324 44.56% 17,375 54.05% 448 1.39% −3,051 −9.49% 32,147
Lebanon 18,368 37.37% 29,836 60.71% 945 1.92% −11,468 −23.34% 49,149
Lehigh 73,632 57.33% 52,576 40.93% 2,230 1.74% 21,056 16.40% 128,438
Luzerne 49,200 45.43% 58,040 53.59% 1,056 0.98% −8,840 −8.16% 108,296
Lycoming 13,893 33.82% 26,488 64.48% 699 1.70% −12,595 −30.66% 41,080
McKean 3,972 31.8934% 8,285 66.5248% 197 1.5818% −4,313 −34.6314% 12,454
Mercer 18,136 44.13% 22,290 54.24% 671 1.63% −4,154 −10.11% 41,097
Mifflin 3,934 28.607% 9,564 69.546% 254 1.847% −5,630 −40.939% 13,752
Monroe 30,626 55.27% 23,968 43.25% 818 1.48% 6,658 12.02% 55,412
Montgomery 248,454 65.23% 126,666 33.26% 5,745 1.51% 121,788 31.97% 380,865
Montour 2,966 42.1666% 3,943 56.0563% 125 1.7771% −977 −13.8897% 7,034
Northampton 62,275 54.33% 50,385 43.96% 1,956 1.71% 11,890 10.37% 124,550
Northumberland 10,524 36.45% 17,926 62.08% 425 1.47% −−7,402 −25.63% 28,875
Perry 5,186 30.19% 11,607 67.57% 385 2.24% −6,421 −37.38% 17,178
Philadelphia 481,467 86.83% 66,653 12.02% 6,387 1.15% 414,814 74.81% 554,507
Pike 8,696 41.82% 11,772 56.61% 326 1.57% −3,076 −14.79% 20,794
Potter 1,537 24.78% 4,564 73.59% 101 1.63% −3,027 −48.81% 6,202
Schuylkill 17,691 36.22% 30,452 62.35% 699 1.43% −12,761 −26.13% 48,842
Snyder 4,322 32.27% 8,826 65.90% 245 1.83% −4,504 −33.63% 28,637
Snyder 9,322 32.5523% 18,896 65.9846% 419 1.4631% −9,574 −33.4323% 28,637
Sullivan 962 35.24% 1,720 63.00% 48 1.76% −758 −27.76% 2,730
Susquehanna 5,521 34.69% 10,112 63.53% 283 1.78% −4,591 −28.84% 15,916
Tioga 4,145 28.19% 10,242 69.65% 317 2.16% −6,097 −41.46% 14,704
Union 5,901 40.863% 8,317 57.593% 223 1.544% −2,416 −16.730% 14,441
Venango 6,945 37.5162% 11,210 60.5553% 357 1.9285% −4,265 −23.0391% 18,512
Warren 5,390 37.51% 8,734 60.78% 245 1.71% −3,344 −23.27% 14,369
Washington 39,220 47.54% 41,958 50.86% 1,318 1.60% −2,738 −3.32% 82,496
Wayne 7,625 37.82% 12,269 60.85% 268 1.33% −4,644 −23.03% 20,162
Westmoreland 63,778 43.91% 79,078 54.44% 2,402 1.65% −15,300 −10.53% 145,258
Wyoming 3,868 36.39443% 6,582 61.93075% 178 1.67482% −2,714 −25.53632% 10,628
York 69,272 41.03% 95,814 56.76% 3,726 2.21% −26,542 −15.73% 168,812
Totals 2,792,437 55.74% 2,134,848 42.62% 82,115 1.64% 657,589 13.12% 5,009,400

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

  • Fayette (largest borough: Uniontown)
  • Luzerne (largest city: Wilkes-Barre)

By congressional district

Casey won 11 of 18 congressional districts, including the 1st and 10th districts, which elected Republicans to the House.

District Casey Jr. Barletta Representative
1st 57% 42% Brian Fitzpatrick
2nd 79% 20%
Brendan Boyle
3rd 93% 6% Dwight Evans
4th 64% 34% Madeleine Dean
5th 68% 31% Mary Gay Scanlon
6th 59% 39% Chrissy Houlahan
7th 56% 42% Susan Wild
8th 52% 47%
Matt Cartwright
9th 40% 59% Dan Meuser
10th 50% 48% Scott Perry
11th 42% 56% Lloyd Smucker
12th 38% 60% Tom Marino
13th 44% 64% John Joyce
14th 46% 52% Guy Reschenthaler
15th 38% 60% Glenn Thompson
16th 48% 50% Mike Kelly
17th 57% 41% Conor Lamb
18th 71% 27% Mike Doyle

See also

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