The 2018 United States Senate election in Virginia took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia, concurrently with other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine, who had been his party's unsuccessful nominee for vice president two years earlier, was re-elected to a second term in office, winning this seat by the largest margin since 1988. This was the first election since 1994 that anyone had been re-elected to this seat.
November 6, 2018 | |||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 59.14% | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Kaine: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Stewart: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
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The Republican Party of Virginia central committee voted to select the Republican nominee for Senate by a primary rather than a convention. Corey Stewart, chair of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors, won the Republican nomination on June 12, 2018, after defeating Delegate Nick Freitas and Christian minister E. W. Jackson.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Tim Kaine, incumbent U.S. senator, former governor, and Democratic nominee for vice president in 2016
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Corey Stewart, chairman of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors, candidate for lieutenant governor in 2013 and candidate for governor in 2017
Eliminated in primary
- Nick Freitas, state delegate
- E. W. Jackson, pastor, attorney, veteran, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2013
Failed to qualify
- Minerva Diaz, veteran, businesswoman, and Christian minister
- Bert Mizusawa, former Deputy Undersecretary of the Army, retired U.S. Army major general, and candidate for VA-02 in 2010
- Ivan Raiklin, veteran and businessman
Declined
- Dave Brat, U.S. representative
- Eric Cantor, former Majority Leader of the United States House of Representatives
- Barbara Comstock, U.S. representative
- Ken Cuccinelli, former attorney general and nominee for governor in 2013
- Tom Davis, former U.S. representative
- Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, nominee for the U.S. Senate from California in 2010 and candidate for president in 2016
- Ed Gillespie, former chairman of the Republican National Committee, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014, and nominee for governor in 2017
- Jim Gilmore, former governor, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2008 and candidate for president in 2008 and 2016
- Shak Hill, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 (running for VA-10)
- Laura Ingraham, talk radio host, author, and conservative political commentator (endorsed Corey Stewart)
- Jimmie Massie, former state delegate
- Bob McDonnell, former governor of Virginia (endorsed Nick Freitas)
- John Moore, University of Virginia law professor and former diplomat
- Pete Snyder, technology entrepreneur and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2013
- Scott Taylor, U.S. representative
- Frank Wagner, state senator and candidate for governor in 2017
- Rob Wittman, U.S. representative
Endorsements
Nick Freitas
- U.S. senators
- Mike Lee (R-UT)
- Rand Paul (R-KY), and 2016 U.S. presidential candidate
- U.S. representatives
- Paul Broun, former U.S. representative (R-GA)
- Ron Paul, former U.S. representative (R-TX), candidate for president in 1988, 2008 and 2012
- U.S. governors
- Bob McDonnell (R-VA), former governor of Virginia
- State senators
- Bill DeSteph, state senator
- Mark Obenshain, state senator and 2013 Republican nominee for Attorney General of Virginia
- Bryce Reeves, state senator and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2017
- David Suetterlein, state senator
- State delegates
- Rob Bell, state delegate and candidate for Attorney General of Virginia in 2013 and 2017.
- Todd Gilbert, Virginia House Majority Leader
- Greg Habeeb, state delegate
- Steve Landes, state delegate
- Dave LaRock, state delegate
- Jason Miyares, state delegate
- Brenda Pogge, state delegate
- Mike Webert, state delegate
- Local officials
- Susan Lascolette, member of the Goochland County Board of Supervisors
- Jeremy McCleary, mayor of Woodstock
- Ron Meyer, Loudoun County Supervisor
- Andrew Pullen, member of the Fluvanna County School Board
- Jon Russell, member of the Culpeper town council
- Josh Thiel, Leesburg town councilmen
- Individuals
- Hugh Hewitt, conservative talk radio host
- Kyle Kashuv, Parkland shooting survivor and conservative activist
- Charlie Kirk, founder and executive director of Turning Point USA
- Kelley Paul, political consultant and activist
- Austin Petersen, Libertarian candidate for President of the United States in 2016 and candidate for U.S Senate in Missouri for 2018
- Cabot Phillips, media director for Campus Reform
- Denver Riggleman, businessman, candidate for governor in 2017, and Republican nominee for VA-05 in 2018
- Richard Viguerie, conservative activist and chairman of ConservativeHQ.com
- Party leaders
- Morton Blackwell, Republican National Committeeman for Virginia
- Organizations
- Americans For Prosperity
- FreedomWorks
- National Association for Gun Rights PAC
- NRA Political Victory Fund
- Republican Liberty Caucus
- Students For Trump
- Newspapers and other media
- 71 Republic
- Arlington Sun Gazette
- The Reagan Battalion
E. W. Jackson
- Cabinet-level officials
- William G. Boykin, executive vice president at the Family Research Council, retired lieutenant general, former Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence
- Dr. Sebastian Gorka, former deputy assistant to President Donald Trump, military and intelligence analyst, FOX News contributor
- U.S. governors
- Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas
- Statewide office holders
- Ken Blackwell, National Rifle Association of America board member, former Ohio Secretary of State, former Ohio State Treasurer, former mayor of Cincinnati, Ohio
- Local officials
- Suzy Kelly, Chesapeake city councilwoman, chairman of the Virginia Chamber of Commerce, CEO of Jo-Kell
- Individuals
- Rafael Cruz, pastor and father of Ted Cruz
- Organizations
- Family Research Council Action PAC
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Nick Freitas | E. W. Jackson | Corey Stewart | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlantic Media & Research (R-Stewart) | May 14–18, 2018 | 355 | ± 5.2% | 9% | 5% | 32% | – | – |
| Christopher Newport University | February 5–28, 2018 | 422 | ± 2.5% | 6% | 7% | 16% | 5% | 66% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Dave Brat | Corey Stewart | Scott Taylor | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Mary Washington | September 5–12, 2017 | 562 LV | ± 5.2% | 11% | 15% | 20% | 12% | 38% |
| 867 RV | ± 4.1% | 9% | 12% | 20% | 9% | 45% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Corey Stewart | 136,610 | 44.87% | |
| Republican | Nick Freitas | 131,321 | 43.14% | |
| Republican | Earl Jackson, Sr. | 36,508 | 11.99% | |
| Total votes | 304,439 | 100.00% | ||
Third party candidates
- Winsome Sears, a Republican former state delegate, ran as a write-in candidate.
- Matt Waters, director of development at Students For Liberty, received the Libertarian Party nomination on March 10, 2018. On June 28, 2018, he also received the endorsement of the Constitution Party of Virginia.
General election
The election featured a match-up of two Minnesota-born Virginians: Republican Corey Stewart was born in Duluth, Minnesota, and Democrat Tim Kaine was born in Saint Paul, Minnesota. All polls leading up to the election showed Kaine defeating Stewart by a wide margin. When polls closed on election day, Tim Kaine was immediately declared the winner before the votes were counted, based on exit polling alone.
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Safe D | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections | Safe D | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News | Likely D | July 9, 2018 |
| CNN | Safe D | July 12, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics | Safe D | August 14, 2018 |
Debates/townhalls
| Host network/sponsors | Date | Link(s) | Participants | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Kaine (D) | Corey Stewart (R) | Matt Waters (L) | |||
| PBS NewsHour/Virginia Bar Association | July 21, 2018 | Invited | Invited | — | |
| Hampton University/Liberty University | September 20, 2018 | Invited | Invited | — | |
| WRC-TV | September 26, 2018 | Invited | Invited | — | |
| Liberty University | October 3, 2018 | Invited | Invited | — | |
Endorsements
Corey Stewart (R)
- U.S. executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, president of the United States
- U.S. representatives
- Virgil Goode (VA-5) (former)
- State officials
- Ken Cuccinelli, former Attorney General of Virginia
- E.W. Jackson, former Republican nominee for lieutenant governor of Virginia
- Individuals
- Maria Espinoza, founder of the Remembrance Project
- Jerry Falwell Jr., president of Liberty University
- Laura Ingraham, talk radio host, author, and conservative political commentator
- Malik Obama, half-brother of former president Barack Obama
Tim Kaine (D)
- U.S. executive branch officials
- Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States
- U.S. senators
- Dick Durbin, U.S. senator (D-IL) and Senate Minority Whip
- Doug Jones, U.S. senator (D-AL)
- John Warner, former U.S. senator (R-VA)
- Mark Warner, U.S. senator (D-VA)
- U.S. representatives
- Don Beyer (D-VA-8)
- Gerry Connolly (D-VA-11)
- Donald McEachin (D-VA-4)
- Tom Perriello (D-VA-5) (former)
- State officials
- Justin Fairfax, lieutenant governor of Virginia
- Terry McAuliffe, former governor of Virginia
- Ralph Northam, governor of Virginia
- Labor unions
- United Automobile Workers
- United Mine Workers of America
- Organizations
- Coalition to Stop Gun Violence
- Council for a Livable World
- Feminist Majority Political Action Committee
- JStreet
- League of Conservation Voters Action Fund
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare
- National Organization for Women
- Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund
- Population Connection
- Sierra Club Virginia Chapter
Matt Waters (L)
- Local officials
- Joe Walton, Libertarian nominee for VA-07 in 2018 and former chairman of the Powhatan County Board of Supervisors
- Party leaders
- Wes Benedict, executive director of the Libertarian National Committee
- Carla Howell, political director of the Libertarian Party
- Bill Redpath, Libertarian National Committeeman, former treasurer and former chairman of the Libertarian National Committee
- Nicholas Sarwark, chairman of the Libertarian National Committee, candidate for Mayor of Phoenix in 2018
- Individuals
- Cliff Hyra, lawyer and Libertarian nominee for governor of Virginia in 2017
- Daniel McAdams, executive director of the Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity
- Dan McLaughlin, lawyer and columnist at National Review
- Chris Rufer, founder of The Morning Star Company
- Jon Utley, publisher of The American Conservative and son of Freda Utley
- Organizations
- Constitution Party of Virginia
- Libertarian Youth Caucus
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tim Kaine (D) | Corey Stewart (R) | Matt Waters (L) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Mary Washington/SSRS | September 4–9, 2018 | 512 LV | ± 5.8% | 52% | 36% | 5% | 0% | 4% |
| 704 RV | ± 5.0% | 51% | 33% | 5% | 1% | 7% | ||
| 801 A | ± 4.6% | 49% | 30% | 6% | 1% | 9% | ||
| Cygnal/POOLHOUSE (R) | August 22–24, 2018 | 1,119 | ± 2.8% | 50% | 46% | – | – | 4% |
| Roanoke College | August 12–19, 2018 | 512 | ± 4.3% | 51% | 34% | 4% | – | 11% |
| Virginia Commonwealth University | July 10–30, 2018 | 757 | ± 3.6% | 49% | 26% | 5% | – | 20% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 21–25, 2018 | 1,082 | ± 3.7% | 54% | 36% | – | 0% | 9% |
| Roanoke College | May 20–30, 2018 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 44% | 33% | – | – | 23% |
| Christopher Newport University | February 5–28, 2018 | 1,562 | ± 2.5% | 56% | 32% | – | 1% | 11% |
| University of Mary Washington/PSRAI | September 5–12, 2017 | 562 LV | ± 5.2% | 53% | 36% | – | – | 7% |
| 867 RV | ± 4.1% | 54% | 39% | – | 1% | 4% |
Hypothetical polling
with Nick Freitas
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tim Kaine (D) | Nick Freitas (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roanoke College | May 20–30, 2018 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 45% | 30% | – | 25% |
| Christopher Newport University | February 5–28, 2018 | 1,562 | ± 2.5% | 56% | 33% | 1% | 10% |
with E. W. Jackson
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tim Kaine (D) | E. W. Jackson (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roanoke College | May 20–30, 2018 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 45% | 30% | – | 25% |
| Christopher Newport University | February 5–28, 2018 | 1,562 | ± 2.5% | 56% | 32% | 1% | 11% |
with Dave Brat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tim Kaine (D) | Dave Brat (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Mary Washington | September 5–12, 2017 | 562 LV | ± 5.2% | 54% | 36% | 7% |
| 867 RV | ± 4.1% | 54% | 41% | 3% |
with Barbara Comstock
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tim Kaine (D) | Barbara Comstock (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | March 14–19, 2017 | 3,097 | ± 1.6% | 53% | 41% | 6% |
with Carly Fiorina
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tim Kaine (D) | Carly Fiorina (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | April 6–10, 2017 | 1,115 | ± 2.9% | 57% | 33% | – | 7% |
| Gravis Marketing | March 14–19, 2017 | 3,097 | ± 1.6% | 53% | 41% | – | 7% |
| Quinnipiac University | February 10–15, 2017 | 989 | ± 3.1% | 57% | 36% | 2% | 5% |
with Laura Ingraham
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tim Kaine (D) | Laura Ingraham (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | April 6–10, 2017 | 1,115 | ± 2.9% | 56% | 35% | – | 7% |
| Quinnipiac University | February 10–15, 2017 | 989 | ± 3.1% | 56% | 36% | 2% | 7% |
with Scott Taylor
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tim Kaine (D) | Scott Taylor (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Mary Washington | September 5–12, 2017 | 562 LV | ± 5.2% | 52% | 37% | 7% |
| 867 RV | ± 4.1% | 53% | 41% | 4% |
Results
Kaine won the election by a wide margin.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Tim Kaine (incumbent) | 1,910,370 | 57.00% | +4.17% | |
| Republican | Corey Stewart | 1,374,313 | 41.01% | −5.91% | |
| Libertarian | Matt Waters | 61,565 | 1.84% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 5,125 | 0.15% | -0.10% | ||
| Total votes | 3,351,373 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Chesterfield (no municipalities)
- Fluvanna (largest city: Lake Monticello)
- Lynchburg (independent city)
- James City (no municipalities)
- Stafford (no municipalities)
- Waynesboro (independent city)
Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Buckingham (largest town: Dillwyn)
By congressional district
Kaine won seven of 11 congressional districts, including three held by Republicans.
| District | Kaine | Stewart | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 48% | 50% | Rob Wittman |
| 2nd | 54% | 44% | Scott Taylor |
| Elaine Luria | |||
| 3rd | 70% | 28% | Bobby Scott |
| 4th | 64% | 34% | Donald McEachin |
| 5th | 48% | 50% | Tom Garrett |
| Denver Riggleman | |||
| 6th | 41% | 56% | Bob Goodlatte |
| Ben Cline | |||
| 7th | 52% | 46% | Dave Brat |
| Abigail Spanberger | |||
| 8th | 78% | 19% | Don Beyer |
| 9th | 35% | 64% | Morgan Griffith |
| 10th | 60% | 38% | Barbara Comstock |
| Jennifer Wexton | |||
| 11th | 73% | 25% | Gerry Connolly |
See also
- United States House of Representatives election in Virginia, 2018
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