The 2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Kentucky, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who had been Senate Majority Leader since 2015 and senator from Kentucky since 1985, won reelection to a seventh, and ultimately last, term in office. He faced off against former U.S. Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath and Libertarian Brad Barron.
November 3, 2020 | |||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 59.7% | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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McConnell: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80-90% >90% McGrath: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40-50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
The Democratic and Republican primaries took place on June 23, 2020. As the primaries neared, the president of the National Bar Association accused officials of carrying out voter suppression. Compared to typical numbers of 3,700, the number of polling stations was reduced to 200 with only one in Louisville. Because a large number of voters voted by mail, absentee ballots were not counted until June 30. In the primary, over 937,000 people requested absentee ballots or voted early, a far greater number than usual.
Despite much speculation about this race being potentially competitive and large amounts of money being poured in to try to defeat McConnell, he wound up winning his final term with his largest margin of victory since 2002, defeating McGrath by nearly 20 percentage points. He also won Elliott and Wolfe Counties for the first time, solidifying rural Kentucky's hard swing towards the GOP. This was the only election in which McConnell attained more than 1 million votes.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Mitch McConnell, incumbent U.S. senator and Senate Majority Leader
Eliminated in primary
- Nicholas Alsager
- Paul John Frangedakis, chiropractor (switched to independent write-in candidacy after losing primary)
- Louis Grider, truck driver
- Neren James
- Kenneth Lowndes
- C. Wesley Morgan, former state representative
Withdrawn
- Wendell K. Crow, businessman and entrepreneur (remained on ballot)
- Karl Das
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mitch McConnell (incumbent) | 342,660 | 82.80% | |
| Republican | C. Wesley Morgan | 25,588 | 6.18% | |
| Republican | Louis Grider | 13,771 | 3.33% | |
| Republican | Paul John Frangedakis | 11,957 | 2.89% | |
| Republican | Neren James | 10,693 | 2.58% | |
| Republican | Kenneth Lowndes | 5,548 | 1.34% | |
| Republican | Nicholas Alsager | 3,603 | 0.87% | |
| Total votes | 413,820 | 100.0% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Amy McGrath, former U.S. Marine fighter pilot and Democratic nominee for Kentucky's 6th congressional district in 2018
Eliminated in primary
- Charles Booker, state representative
- Mike Broihier, farmer, educator, and former Marine
- Maggie Joe Hilliard
- Andrew Maynard
- Eric Rothmuller, small business owner
- John R. Sharpensteen
- Bennie J. Smith, local business owner
- Mary Ann Tobin, former Auditor of Kentucky
Withdrawn
- Jimmy Ausbrooks, mental health counselor (endorsed Mike Broihier) (remained on ballot)
- Steven Cox, registered pharmacy technician (endorsed Charles Booker)
- Joshua Paul Edwards
- Kevin Elliott, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Murray State University
- Dr. Loretta Babalmoradi Noble
Declined
- Rocky Adkins, former minority leader of the Kentucky House of Representatives and candidate for Governor of Kentucky in 2019
- Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky, former attorney general of Kentucky, and son of former governor Steve Beshear
- Steve Beshear, former governor of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996
- Jack Conway, former attorney general of Kentucky, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010, nominee for Governor of Kentucky in 2015
- Adam Edelen, former state auditor and candidate for Governor of Kentucky in 2019
- Greg Fischer, Mayor of Louisville
- Jim Gray, Secretary of the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, former mayor of Lexington and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2016
- Alison Lundergan Grimes, former secretary of state of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014 (endorsed Booker)
- Matt Jones, attorney, media personality, and restaurateur (had formed an exploratory committee beforehand, endorsed Booker)
Campaign
There were debates on March 5, 2020 and June 1, 2020.
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Charles Booker | Amy McGrath | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress | June 10–22, 2020 | 556 (LV) | – | 43% | 46% | – | 10% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang | June 16–18, 2020 | – | – | 32% | 42% | – | – |
| Civiqs/Data for Progress | June 13–15, 2020 | 421 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 44% | 36% | 9% | 11% |
| YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications | June 8–12, 2020 | 313 (RV) | ± 7.0% | 39% | 49% | 6% | 3% |
| YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications | May 2020 | – | – | 13% | 62% | – | – |
| YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications | April 2020 | – | – | 11% | 62% | – | – |
| YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications | January 2020 | – | – | 7% | 65% | – | – |
Endorsements
Charles Booker
U.S. senators
- Jesse Jackson Sr., D.C. (1991–1997)
- Bernie Sanders, Vermont (2007–present)
U.S. representatives
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, NY-14 (2019–present)
Statewide officials
- Alison Lundergan Grimes, former secretary of state of Kentucky (2012–2020) and Democratic nominee for this seat in 2014
- State legislators
- Gerald Neal, state senator from the 33rd district (1989–present)
- Reggie Thomas, state senator from the 13th district (2014–present)
Individuals
- Nick Offerman, actor[citation needed]
Labor unions
- Association of Flight Attendants
- National Nurses United
Organizations
- Democracy for America
- Friends of the Earth Action
- Indivisible movement
- Kentuckians for the Commonwealth
- MoveOn
- Political parties
- Working Families Party
Newspapers
- Lexington Herald-Leader
- Louisville Courier-Journal
Mike Broihier
State legislators
- Richard Ojeda, state senator from West Virginia's 7th district (2016–2019)
Individuals
- Marianne Williamson, author and 2020 presidential candidate
- Andrew Yang, entrepreneur and 2020 presidential candidate
- Wendell Berry, author
Organizations
- Indivisible Kentucky
Amy McGrath
Organizations
- Council for a Livable World
- DSCC
- Feminist Majority PAC
- Giffords
- JStreet PAC
- VoteVets
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Amy McGrath | 247,037 | 45.41% | |
| Democratic | Charles Booker | 231,888 | 42.62% | |
| Democratic | Mike Broihier | 27,175 | 4.99% | |
| Democratic | Mary Ann Tobin | 11,108 | 2.04% | |
| Democratic | Maggie Joe Hilliard | 6,224 | 1.14% | |
| Democratic | Andrew Maynard | 5,974 | 1.10% | |
| Democratic | Bennie J. Smith | 5,040 | 0.93% | |
| Democratic | Jimmy Ausbrooks (withdrawn) | 3,629 | 0.67% | |
| Democratic | Eric Rothmuller | 2,995 | 0.55% | |
| Democratic | John R. Sharpensteen | 2,992 | 0.55% | |
| Total votes | 544,062 | 100.0% | ||
Other candidates
Libertarian primary
The Libertarian Party of Kentucky did not qualify to nominate through the taxpayer-funded primary and held its own privately operated primary on March 8, 2020. Anyone registered Libertarian in the state of Kentucky as of January 1, 2020, could participate. All candidates of the Libertarian Party of Kentucky must defeat None Of The Above (NOTA) to obtain the nomination.
Nominee
- Brad Barron, farmer and entrepreneur
Reform Party
Withdrawn
- Derek Leonard Petteys
Independents
Declared
- Daniel Cobble (as a write-in candidate)
- Harold H. Fitzpatrick (as a write-in candidate)
- Paul John Frangedakis (as a write-in candidate) (switched from Republican candidacy after losing primary)
- Randall Lee Teegarden (as a write-in candidate)
- Demetra Wysinger (as a write-in candidate)
Withdrawn
- Alyssa Dara McDowell, independent candidate for president in 2016, 2018 Independent nominee for Kentucky House of Representatives District 65
General election
Despite record breaking fundraising from McGrath and speculation that the race could be competitive, McConnell was handily re-elected. Throughout the general election, McConnell portrayed McGrath as an overly liberal "rioter apologist" and made use of a comment from 2018 where McGrath compared her reaction to Trump being elected in 2016 to how she felt during the September 11 attacks.
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 12, 2020 - C-SPAN
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Likely R | October 29, 2020 |
| Inside Elections | Safe R | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos | Safe R | October 30, 2020 |
| Politico | Likely R | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP | Likely R | October 23, 2020 |
| DDHQ | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| 538 | Safe R | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist | Likely R | November 2, 2020 |
Additional general election endorsements
Amy McGrath (D)
U.S. Senators
- Kirsten Gillibrand, New York (2009–present); former 2020 presidential candidate
- Kamala Harris, California (2017–2021)
U.S. Representatives
- Seth Moulton, MA-6 (2015–present)
State officials
- Andy Beshear, governor of Kentucky (2019–present)
Individuals
- Ann Coulter, media pundit (Republican)
- Alex Kurtzman, producer, writer and director
Organizations
Unions
- International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers
- Kentucky AFL-CIO
- National Education Association
- Service Employees International Union 1199 WV/KY/OH
- United Auto Workers
Polling
Graphical summary
View source data.
Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mitch McConnell (R) | Amy McGrath (D) | Brad Barron (L) | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swayable | October 23 – November 1, 2020 | 365 (LV) | ± 7.9% | 49% | 46% | 5% | – |
| Morning Consult | October 22–31, 2020 | 911 (LV) | ± 3% | 51% | 40% | – | – |
| Bluegrass Community & Technical College | October 12–28, 2020 | 250 (RV) | – | 50% | 40% | – | 10% |
| Cygnal | October 19–20, 2020 | 640 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 50% | 40% | 5% | 5% |
| Mason-Dixon | October 12–15, 2020 | 625 (LV) | ± 4% | 51% | 42% | 4% | 3% |
| Morning Consult | September 11–20, 2020 | 746 (LV) | ± (2% – 7%) | 52% | 37% | – | – |
| Data for Progress (D) | September 14–19, 2020 | 807 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 39% | 3% | 12% |
| 48% | 41% | – | 11% | ||||
| Quinnipiac University | September 10–14, 2020 | 1,164 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 53% | 41% | – | 5% |
| Quinnipiac University | July 30 – August 3, 2020 | 909 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 44% | – | 7% |
| Bluegrass Data (D) | July 25–29, 2020 | 3,020 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 46% | 4% | – |
| Morning Consult | July 24 – August 2, 2020 | 793 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 36% | – | 12% |
| Spry Strategies (R) | July 11–16, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 55% | 33% | – | 12% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D) | July 7–12, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 41% | 7% | 7% |
| Civiqs/Data for Progress | June 13–15, 2020 | 898 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 53% | 33% | 4% | 11% |
| RMG Research | May 21–24, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 40% | 41% | – | 19% |
| Bluegrass Data (D) | April 7–12, 2020 | 4,000 (RV) | – | 40% | 38% | 7% | – |
| Change Research (D) | January 17–21, 2020 | 1,281 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 41% | 41% | – | 18% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D) | January 8–13, 2020 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 40% | – | 17% |
| Fabrizio Ward | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | – | 6% |
| Change Research (D) | June 15–16, 2019 | 1,629 (LV) | – | 47% | 45% | – | 8% |
Hypothetical polling
with Charles Booker
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mitch McConnell (R) | Charles Booker (D) | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs/Data for Progress | June 13–15, 2020 | 898 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 52% | 38% | 9% |
with Jim Gray
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mitch McConnell (R) | Jim Gray (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | June 11–12, 2019 | 741 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
with Generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mitch McConnell (R) | Generic Democrat | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | May 14–15, 2020 | 1,104 (V) | – | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | Feb 11–12, 2019 | 748 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 42% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | Aug 15–16, 2017 | 645 (V) | – | 37% | 44% | 19% |
on whether Mitch McConnell deserves to be re-elected
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Yes | No | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio Ward/AARP | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 31% | 62% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | Feb 11–12, 2019 | 748 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 32% | 61% | 8% |
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Generic Republican | Generic Democrat | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal | October 19–20, 2020 | 640 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 55% | 39% | 6% |
| Quinnipiac University | September 10–14, 2020 | 1,164 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 54% | 38% | 8% |
| Fabrizio Ward/AARP | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 42% | 13% |
Results
McConnell was announced as the winner on November 3. When pressed for a potential recount of the election amid legal disputes regarding the general, McConnell dismissed the idea, since, "at the risk of bragging, it wasn't very close."
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mitch McConnell (incumbent) | 1,233,315 | 57.76% | +1.57% | |
| Democratic | Amy McGrath | 816,257 | 38.23% | −2.49% | |
| Libertarian | Brad Barron | 85,386 | 4.00% | +0.92% | |
| Write-in | 99 | 0.01% | -0.00% | ||
| Total votes | 2,135,057 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Bath (largest municipality: Owingsville)
- Elliott (largest municipality: Sandy Hook)
- Marion (largest municipality: Lebanon)
- Menifee (largest municipality: Frenchburg)
- Nicholas (largest municipality: Carlisle)
- Rowan (largest municipality: Morehead)
- Wolfe (largest municipality: Campton)
By congressional district
McConnell won five of six congressional districts.
| District | McConnell | McGrath | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 67% | 28% | James Comer |
| 2nd | 62% | 33% | Brett Guthrie |
| 3rd | 37% | 61% | John Yarmuth |
| 4th | 60% | 36% | Thomas Massie |
| 5th | 74% | 22% | Hal Rogers |
| 6th | 51% | 46% | Andy Barr |
See also
- 2020 Kentucky elections
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