The 2022 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 8, 2022. Incumbent Republican senator Lisa Murkowski won reelection to a fourth full term, defeating fellow Republican Kelly Tshibaka and Democrat Patricia Chesbro.
November 8, 2022 | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Murkowski: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Tshibaka: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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This was the first U.S. Senate election in Alaska to be held under a new election process provided for in Ballot Measure 2. All candidates ran in a nonpartisan blanket top-four primary on August 16, 2022, and the top four candidates advanced to the general election, where voters utilized ranked-choice voting.
Murkowski had been a vocal critic of Donald Trump during his presidency and opposed several of his initiatives. Murkowski was one of seven Republican senators who voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial in 2021, and was the only one up for re-election in 2022. On March 16, 2021, the Alaska Republican Party voted to censure Murkowski and announced that it would recruit a Republican challenger in the 2022 election cycle. Kelly Tshibaka, a former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Administration, was endorsed by Trump and the Alaska Republican Party. Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell and the National Republican Senatorial Committee supported Murkowski.
In addition to Murkowski and Tshibaka, Democrat Pat Chesbro and Republican Buzz Kelley also advanced to the general election. On September 13, Kelley suspended his campaign and endorsed Tshibaka but remained on the ballot. Murkowski received a plurality of first-place votes; however, because no candidate received a majority of the votes in the first round, an instant runoff was triggered. Murkowski won reelection in the third and final round, winning most of the second-choice votes from Chesbro's voters.
Primary election
Republican Party
Advanced to general
- Lisa Murkowski, incumbent U.S. senator
- Kelly Tshibaka, former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Administration
Withdrew after advancing to general
- Buzz Kelley, retired mechanic (remained on ballot; endorsed Tshibaka)
Eliminated in primary
- Sam Merrill, businessman
- Pat Nolin, mechanic
- John Schiess, perennial candidate
- Kendall L. Shorkey
- Karl Speights, retired U.S. Air Force officer and advisor to Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
Disqualified
- Sam Little, musician, truck driver, National Guard veteran and candidate for governor of Alaska in 2010
Declined
- Mike Dunleavy, governor of Alaska (ran for re-election)
- Bob Lochner, mechanic and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016
- Sarah Palin, former governor of Alaska and nominee for vice president of the United States in 2008 (ran for U.S. House)
Democratic Party
Advanced to general
- Pat Chesbro, teacher
Eliminated in primary
- Edgar Blatchford, professor, former mayor of Seward, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2020
- Ivan R. Taylor
Withdrew
- Elvi Gray-Jackson, state senator for District I and former Anchorage Assembly member (ran for re-election)
Libertarian Party
Eliminated in primary
- Sean Thorne, veteran
Alaskan Independence Party
Eliminated in primary
- Dustin Darden, city maintenance worker and perennial candidate
- Joe Stephens
Declined
- John Howe, machinist and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020 (ran for governor)
Independents
Eliminated in primary
- Dave Darden, perennial candidate
- Shoshana Gungurstein, businesswoman
- Sid Hill, political gadfly and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014
- Jeremy Keller, television personality
- Huhnkie Lee, attorney, army veteran and Republican candidate for Alaska Senate in 2020
Declined
- Al Gross, orthopedic surgeon, commercial fisherman, son of former Alaska Attorney General Avrum Gross, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020 (ran for U.S. House)
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Lisa Murkowski (incumbent) | 85,794 | 45.05% | |
| Republican | Kelly Tshibaka | 73,414 | 38.55% | |
| Democratic | Patricia Chesbro | 12,989 | 6.82% | |
| Republican | Buzz Kelley | 4,055 | 2.13% | |
| Republican | Pat Nolin | 2,004 | 1.05% | |
| Democratic | Edgar Blatchford | 1,981 | 1.04% | |
| Democratic | Ivan R. Taylor | 1,897 | 1.00% | |
| Republican | Sam Merrill | 1,529 | 0.80% | |
| Libertarian | Sean Thorne | 1,399 | 0.73% | |
| Independent | Shoshana Gungurstein | 853 | 0.45% | |
| Independence | Joe Stephens | 805 | 0.42% | |
| Republican | John Schiess | 734 | 0.39% | |
| Independence | Dustin Darden | 649 | 0.34% | |
| Republican | Kendall L. Shorkey | 627 | 0.33% | |
| Republican | Karl Speights | 613 | 0.32% | |
| Independent | Jeremy Keller | 405 | 0.21% | |
| Independent | Sid Hill | 274 | 0.14% | |
| Independent | Huhnkie Lee | 238 | 0.12% | |
| Independent | Dave Darden | 198 | 0.10% | |
| Total votes | 190,458 | 100.0% | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Solid R | March 4, 2022 |
| Inside Elections | Solid R | April 1, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R | March 1, 2022 |
| Politico | Solid R | September 5, 2022 |
| RCP | Safe R | September 15, 2022 |
| Fox News | Solid R | May 12, 2022 |
| DDHQ | Solid R | July 20, 2022 |
| FiveThirtyEight | Solid R | October 24, 2022 |
| The Economist | Safe R | September 7, 2022 |
Debates and forums
| No. | Date | Host | Link | Participants | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||
| Lisa Murkowski | Kelly Tshibaka | Patricia Chesbro | Buzz Kelley | ||||
| 1 | September 1, 2022 | Denaʼina Civic and Convention Center Alaska Oil and Gas Association Anchorage Daily News | P | P | P | A | |
| 2 | October 10, 2022 | Anchorage Chamber of Commerce | P | P | P | W | |
Endorsements
Pat Chesbro (D)
Organizations
- The Alaska Center
- Alaska Democratic Party
Lisa Murkowski (R)
Executive branch officials
- George W. Bush, 43rd President of the United States (2001–2009)
Governors
- Larry Hogan, Governor of Maryland (2015–2023)
- Bill Walker, Governor of Alaska (2014–2018) (Independent)
U.S. Senators
- John Barrasso, U.S. Senator from Wyoming (2007–present)
- Susan Collins, U.S. Senator from Maine (1997–present)
- John Cornyn, U.S. Senator from Texas (2002–present)
- Joni Ernst, U.S. Senator from Iowa (2015–present)
- Angus King, U.S. Senator from Maine (2013–present) (Independent)
- Joe Manchin, U.S. Senator from West Virginia (2010–2025) (Democratic)
- Mitch McConnell, U.S Senator from Kentucky (1985–present), Senate Minority Leader (2021–2025, 2007–2015), and former Senate Majority Leader (2015–2021)
- Rick Scott, U.S. Senator from Florida (2019–present)
- Tim Scott, U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2013–present)
- Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. Senator from Arizona (2019–2025) (Democratic)
- Dan Sullivan, U.S. Senator from Alaska (2015–present)
- Brian Schatz, U.S. Senator from Hawaii (2012–present) (Democratic)
- Jeanne Shaheen, U.S. Senator from New Hampshire (2009–present) (Democratic)
- John Thune, U.S. Senator from South Dakota (2005–present), Senate Minority Whip (2021–2025), and former Senate Majority Whip (2019–2021)
- Mark Warner, U.S. Senator from Virginia (2009–present) (Democratic)
U.S. Representatives
- Adam Kinzinger, U.S. representative from Illinois's 16th congressional district; formerly 17th district (2011–2023)
- Mary Peltola, U.S. representative from Alaska's at-large congressional district (2022–2025) (Democratic)
State Legislators
- Bryce Edgmon, state representative (Independent)
- Zack Fields, state representative (Democratic)
- Neal Foster, state representative (Democratic)
- Dan Ortiz, state representative (Independent)
- Gary Stevens, state senator
- Louise Stutes, state representative, Speaker of the Alaska House of Representatives
- Natasha von Imhof, state senator
- Adam Wool, state representative (Democratic)
Newspapers
- Anchorage Daily News
- The Wrangell Sentinel
Organizations
- Alaska Federation of Natives
- American Conservation Coalition
- AIPAC
- ANCSA Regional Association
- Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions
- ClearPath Action Fund
- Forward Party
- Log Cabin Republicans
- National Education Association – Alaska
- National Republican Senatorial Committee
- Pro-Israel America
- Renew America Movement
- United Fishermen of Alaska
- United States Chamber of Commerce
Labor unions
- Alaska AFL–CIO
- Alaska Professional Firefighters Association
- Alaska Teamsters Local 959
- Carpenters Local Union 1281
- Inlandboatmen's Union of the Pacific – Alaska
- International Longshore and Warehouse Union – Alaska
- Laborers' International Union of North America
Kelly Tshibaka (R)
Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)
Governors
- Kristi Noem, Governor of South Dakota (2019–2025)
- Sarah Palin, Governor of Alaska (2006–2009), candidate for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 2022 and nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2008
Local officials
- Edgar Blatchford, former mayor of Seward (1999–2003), candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016, 2022 and lieutenant governor in 2018 (Democratic)
Individuals
- Tuckerman Babcock, political strategist and former chair of the Alaska Republican Party (2016–2018)
- Buzz Kelley, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2022 and retired mechanic
- Charlie Kirk, political activist and founder of Turning Point USA
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman and son of former President Donald Trump
Organizations
- Alaska Outdoor Council PAC
- Alaska Republican Party
- American Conservative Union
- Campaign for Working Families
- Family Research Council Action PAC
- Maggie's List
- Oil and Gas Workers' Association
- Susan B. Anthony List
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | RCV count | Lisa Murkowski (R) | Kelly Tshibaka (R) | Pat Chesbro (D) | Buzz Kelley (R) | Undecided / Not Ranked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | October 19–22, 2022 | 1,276 (LV) | ±3.0% | ||||||
| 1 | 41% | 39% | 16% | 4% | — | ||||
| 2 | 42% | 41% | 17% | — | — | ||||
| 3 | 56% | 44% | – | — | |||||
| Alaska Survey Research | September 25–27, 2022 | 1,282 (LV) | ±3.0% | ||||||
| 1 | 41% | 39% | 16% | 4% | — | ||||
| 2 | 42% | 41% | 17% | — | — | ||||
| 3 | 57% | 43% | – | — | |||||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) | September 6–11, 2022 | 1,050 (LV) | N/A | 35% | 43% | 13% | 1% | 7% U | |
| 1 | 38% | 46% | 14% | 2% | 7% NR | ||||
| 2 | 38% | 47% | 14% | – | 8% NR | ||||
| 3 | 50% | 50% | – | 10% NR |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | RCV count | Pat Chesbro (D) | Dustin Darden (AIP) | Elvi Gray-Jackson (D) | Al Gross (D/I) | John Howe (AIP) | Joe Miller (L) | Lisa Murkowski (R) | Sarah Palin (R) | Kelly Tshibaka (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | July 2–5, 2022 | 1,201 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 1 | 17% | 5% | – | 35% | – | 43% | – | ||||
| 2 | 20% | – | 36% | 45% | |||||||||||
| 3 | – | 52% | 48% | ||||||||||||
| Cygnal (R) | March 14–16, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 1 | – | 29% | – | 45% | 26% | – | |||||
| ? | 49% | – | 51% | – | |||||||||||
| Alaska Survey Research | October 22–27, 2021 | 969 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 1 | – | 22% | – | 35% | 20% | 23% | – | ||||
| 2 | 23% | 42% | – | 35% | |||||||||||
| 3 | – | 60% | 40% | ||||||||||||
| Alaska Survey Research | July 11–21, 2021 | 947 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 1 | – | 19% | – | 18% | 36% | – | 27% | – | |||
| 2 | 21% | – | 39% | 40% | |||||||||||
| 3 | – | 55% | 45% | ||||||||||||
| Change Research (D) | May 22–25, 2021 | 1,023 (LV) | ± 3.1% | BA | – | 25% | 4% | – | 19% | – | 39% | 1% | 12% | ||
| 3 | 46% | – | – | 54% | – | ||||||||||
Lisa Murkowski vs. Kelly Tshibaka
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Lisa Murkowski (R) | Kelly Tshibaka (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | April 16–21, 2022 | 1,208 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 55% | 45% | – |
Results
| Party | Candidate | First choice | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | ||||
| Republican | Lisa Murkowski (incumbent) | 113,495 | 43.37% | +623 | 114,118 | 43.39% | +1,641 | 115,759 | 44.49% | +20,571 | 136,330 | 53.70% | ||
| Republican | Kelly Tshibaka | 111,480 | 42.60% | +621 | 112,101 | 42.62% | +3,209 | 115,310 | 44.32% | +2,224 | 117,534 | 46.30% | ||
| Democratic | Pat Chesbro | 27,145 | 10.37% | +1,088 | 28,233 | 10.73% | +901 | 29,134 | 11.20% | −29,134 | Eliminated | |||
| Republican | Buzz Kelley (withdrew) | 7,557 | 2.89% | +1,018 | 8,575 | 3.26% | −8,575 | Eliminated | ||||||
| Write-in | 2,028 | 0.77% | -2,028 | Eliminated | ||||||||||
| Total votes | 261,705 | 263,027 | 260,203 | 253,864 | ||||||||||
| Blank or inactive ballots | 3,770 | +2,824 | 6,594 | +6,339 | 12,933 | |||||||||
| Republican hold | ||||||||||||||
See also
- 2022 United States Senate elections
- 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska
- 2022 Alaska gubernatorial election
- 2022 Alaska Senate election
- 2022 Alaska House of Representatives election
- 2022 Alaska elections
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