2022 United States Senate election in Florida

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The 2022 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Florida. Incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio won re-election to a third term, defeating Democratic nominee Val Demings in a landslide victory. Rubio was first elected in 2010, filling the seat of appointed Senator George LeMieux. Rubio won re-election to a third term, becoming the first Republican to do so in Florida history. Rubio was sworn in for what would be his last term in the Senate, serving from January 3, 2023, to January 21, 2025, when he assumed the office of United States Secretary of State in the second Trump administration.

2022 United States Senate election in Florida
← 2016
November 8, 2022
2026 (special) →
 
Nominee Marco Rubio Val Demings
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 4,474,847 3,201,522
Percentage 57.68% 41.27%
Rubio:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Demings:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No votes
U.S. senator before election

Marco Rubio
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

Marco Rubio
Republican

The primary elections for Republicans and Democrats took place on August 23 to finalize candidates for the November election. Rubio won the uncontested Republican primary, while incumbent U.S. Representative Val Demings won the Democratic nomination.

Despite some predicting a close race early, Rubio went on to win by a comfortable 16.4%, improving upon his 2016 performance by 8.7%. According to exit polls, Rubio won 64% of White voters, 56% of Latino voters, and 9% of African American voters (down from 17% from 2016). Demings' 41.27% share of the vote was the worst performance for a Democrat in a Senate race in Florida since 1994.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Marco Rubio, incumbent U.S. senator

Did not qualify

  • Kevin DePuy, former Marine Corps sergeant
  • Howard Knepper, businessman and perennial candidate (ran as a write-in candidate)
  • Jake Loubriel, Florida National Guardsman
  • Ervan Katari Miller, perennial candidate
  • Earl Yearicks IV, maritime captain

Withdrawn

  • Calvin Driggers, businessman
  • Luis Miguel, conservative writer and activist (ran for State House)
  • Angela Walls-Windhauser, perennial candidate

Declined

  • Pam Bondi, former Florida attorney general
  • Matt Gaetz, former U.S. representative (ran for re-election)
  • Brian Mast, U.S. representative (ran for re-election)
  • Roger Stone, political consultant
  • Donald Trump, former president of the United States (endorsed Rubio)
  • Ivanka Trump, former advisor to the president
  • Michael Waltz, former U.S. representative (ran for re-election)

Endorsements

Marco Rubio

U.S. presidents

Sheriffs

  • 55 county sheriffs

Organizations

  • Associated Industries of Florida
  • Florida Fraternal Order of Police
  • Pro-Israel America
  • Republican Jewish Coalition
  • Tea Party Express

Labor unions

  • Florida Police Benevolent Association

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Val Demings, U.S. representative

Eliminated in primary

  • Ricardo de la Fuente, perennial candidate and son of Rocky de la Fuente
  • Brian Rush, former Minority Whip of the Florida House of Representatives
  • William Sanchez, immigration lawyer and former special counsel for the U.S. Department of Justice

Did not qualify

  • Edward Abud, businessman
  • Al Fox, president of the Alliance for Responsible Cuba Policy Foundation
  • Dana Harshman, pharmacist
  • Josue Larose, perennial candidate
  • Coleman Watson, federal attorney and stroke survivor
  • Joshua Weil, teacher

Withdrawn

  • Allen Ellison, policy consultant and nominee for Florida's 17th congressional district in 2018 and 2020 (ran for U.S. House)
  • Alan Grayson, former U.S. representative and candidate in 2016 (ran for U.S. House)
  • Ilya Katz, Loyola University Chicago professor
  • Allek Pastrana, engineer (ran for U.S. House)
  • Ken Russell, former Miami City Commissioner (ran for U.S. House)

Declined

  • Aramis Ayala, former state attorney for the Ninth Judicial Circuit Court of Florida (2017–2021) (ran for attorney general)
  • Charlie Crist, former U.S. representative, former governor of Florida, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2010, and nominee for governor in 2014 (ran for governor)
  • Ted Deutch, former U.S. representative
  • Anna Eskamani, state representative
  • Nikki Fried, former Florida commissioner of agriculture (ran for governor)
  • Gwen Graham, former Assistant Secretary of Education for Legislation and Congressional Affairs, former U.S. representative, and candidate for governor in 2018
  • Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, former U.S. representative
  • Stephanie Murphy, former U.S. representative

Endorsements

Val Demings

U.S. senators

  • Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. senator from New York (2009–present)

U.S. representatives

  • Kathy Castor, U.S. representative from Florida's 14th congressional district (2007–present)
  • Luis Gutiérrez, former U.S. representative from Illinois's 4th congressional district (1993–2019)

State officials

  • Alex Sink, former chief financial officer of Florida (2007–2011)

Organizations

  • Congressional Black Caucus PAC
  • Democratic Majority for Israel
  • EMILY's List
  • End Citizens United
  • Feminist Majority PAC
  • Giffords
  • Human Rights Campaign
  • Jewish Democratic Council of America
  • League of Conservation Voters
  • March On
  • Population Connection Action Fund

Labor unions

  • 1199SEIU United Healthcare Workers East
  • AFSCME Florida
  • Communications Workers of America
  • Service Employees International Union Florida

Newspapers

  • The Palm Beach Post
  • Tampa Bay Times
Alan Grayson (withdrawn)

Individuals

Joshua Weil (failed to qualify)

Organizations

  • American Youth for Climate Action
  • Progressives for Democracy in America - Florida

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Ricardo
De La Fuente 		Val
Demings 		Brian
Rush 		William
Sanchez 		Undecided
University of North Florida August 8–12, 2022 529 (LV) ± 6.0% 2% 80% 4% 4% 10%

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Val Demings 1,263,706 84.3
Democratic Brian Rush 94,185 6.3
Democratic William Sanchez 84,576 5.6
Democratic Ricardo De La Fuente 56,749 3.8
Total votes 1,499,216 100.0

Independent and third-party candidates

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Qualified
  • Dennis Misigoy, former chairman of the Enclave at Black Point Community Development District board of supervisors (2016–2021)

Unity Party

Candidates

Did not file
  • Shantele Bennett, financial advisor and candidate for mayor of Orlando in 2019

Independent candidates

Candidates

Declared
  • Steven B. Grant, former mayor of Boynton Beach (2016–2022)
  • Quoc Tuan Nguyen, Florida Institute of Technology professor
Did not qualify
  • Carlos Barberena, digital marketing consultant
Did not file
  • Grace Granda, business consultant
Withdraw
  • Jason Holic, businessman
Declined
  • David Jolly, chairman of Serve America Movement and former U.S. representative
  • John Morgan, attorney and medical marijuana advocate
  • Joe Scarborough, MSNBC host and former U.S. representative

Write-ins

Candidates

Declared
  • Jay An
  • Uloma Uma Expete
  • Edward Gray
  • Salomon Hernandez Sr.
  • Howard Knepper, businessman and perennial candidate
  • Moses Quiles, security technician

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report Likely R October 18, 2022
Inside Elections Likely R August 25, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely R August 24, 2022
Politico Likely R November 3, 2022
RCP Lean R February 24, 2022
Fox News Lean R May 12, 2022
DDHQ Likely R July 20, 2022
538 Solid R November 4, 2022
The Economist Likely R September 7, 2022

Endorsements

Marco Rubio (R)

U.S. presidents

U.S. senators

  • Rick Scott, U.S. senator from Florida (2019–present)

U.S. representatives

  • Vern Buchanan, U.S. representative from Florida's 16th congressional district (2013–present)
  • Greg Steube, U.S. representative from Florida's 17th congressional district (2019–present)

State officials

  • Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida (2019–present)

Sheriffs

  • 55 county sheriffs

Organizations

  • American Israel Public Affairs Committee
  • American Seniors Association
  • Armenian National Committee of America
  • Associated Industries of Florida
  • Campaign for Working Families
  • Citizens Against Government Waste
  • Florida Family Action
  • Florida Police Chiefs Association
  • GOPAC Election Fund
  • National Federation of Independent Business – Florida
  • National Right to Life Committee
  • Pro-Israel America
  • Republican Jewish Coalition
  • Susan B. Anthony List
  • Tea Party Express

Labor unions

Val Demings (D)

U.S. presidents

U.S. senators

  • Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. senator from New York (2009–present)
  • Chris Murphy, U.S. senator from Connecticut (2013–present)

U.S. representatives

  • Kathy Castor, U.S. representative from Florida's 14th congressional district (2007–present)
  • Charlie Crist, former U.S. representative from Florida's 13th congressional district (2017–2022) and 44th governor of Florida (2007–2011)
  • Luis Gutiérrez, former U.S. representative from Illinois's 4th congressional district (1993–2019)

State officials

  • Nikki Fried, former Florida Commissioner of Agriculture (2019–2023)
  • Alex Sink, former chief financial officer of Florida (2007–2011)

Local officials

  • Jane Castor, mayor of Tampa (2019–present)

Individuals

Organizations

  • Congressional Black Caucus PAC
  • Democratic Majority for Israel
  • EMILY's List
  • Feminist Majority PAC
  • Giffords
  • Human Rights Campaign
  • Jewish Democratic Council of America
  • League of Conservation Voters
  • March On
  • Population Connection Action Fund

Labor unions

  • 1199SEIU United Healthcare Workers East
  • AFSCME Florida
  • Communications Workers of America
  • National Education Association
  • Service Employees International Union Florida

Newspapers

  • Miami Herald
  • Orlando Weekly
  • The Palm Beach Post
  • Tampa Bay Times

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Marco
Rubio (R) 		Val
Demings (D) 		Undecided
 Margin
Real Clear Politics October 17, 2022 – November 6, 2022 November 8, 2022 52.4% 43.6% 4.0% Rubio +8.8
FiveThirtyEight September 18, 2022 – November 4, 2022 November 8, 2022 52.3% 43.5% 4.2% Rubio +8.8
270towin November 4–7, 2022 November 8, 2022 51.6% 42.4% 6.0% Rubio +9.2
Average 52.1% 43.2% 4.7% Rubio +8.9

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Marco
Rubio (R) 		Val
Demings (D) 		Other Undecided
Research Co. November 4–6, 2022 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 52% 42% 2% 4%
Data for Progress (D) November 2–6, 2022 1,436 (LV) ± 3.0% 55% 43% 2% –
Amber Integrated (R) November 1–2, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 40% 4% 7%
Civiqs October 29 – November 2, 2022 772 (LV) ± 3.9% 52% 45% 2% 1%
InsiderAdvantage (R) November 1, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 51% 45% 1% 3%
Siena College October 30 – November 1, 2022 659 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 43% 2% 4%
Victory Insights October 30 – November 1, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.8% 50% 46% – 5%
Florida State University/YouGov October 20–31, 2022 1,117 (RV) – 51% 44% – –
University of North Florida October 17–24, 2022 622 (LV) ± 4.7% 54% 43% <1% 3%
Data for Progress (D) October 19–23, 2022 1,251 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 44% 2% 2%
Florida Atlantic University October 12–16, 2022 719 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 42% 3% 7%
RMG Research (R) October 10–13, 2022 685 (LV) ± 3.7% 50% 45% – 5%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy September 26–28, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 41% 2% 10%
Siena College September 18–25, 2022 669 (LV) ± 4.5% 48% 41% 2% 9%
Civiqs September 17–20, 2022 617 (LV) ± 4.5% 49% 47% 3% 2%
Suffolk University September 15–18, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 41% 4% 9%
Sachs Media September 10, 2022 600 (LV) – 49% 46% – 5%
Kurt Jetta (D) September 9–10, 2022 999 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 40% – 12%
563 (LV) 50% 45% – 5%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022 815 (RV) ± 4.3% 50% 41% – 9%
InsiderAdvantage (R) September 5–6, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 46% 44% – 10%
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) August 29 – September 4, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 44% – 9%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) August 24–31, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 47% – 4%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D) August 25–30, 2022 3,017 (LV) ± 1.8% 46% 45% – 9%
Impact Research (D) August 12–18, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 46% – 5%
Kurt Jetta (D) August 12–14, 2022 996 (RV) ± 3.1% 46% 39% – 14%
610 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 41% – 7%
University of North Florida August 8–12, 2022 1,624 (RV) ± 3.4% 44% 48% 7% 2%
Change Research (D) August 2–5, 2022 1,031 (LV) ± 3.1% 46% 46% – 7%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D) July 26–31, 2022 2,244 (LV) ± 2.1% 45% 45% – 10%
Kurt Jetta (D) July 9, 2022 906 (A) ± 3.3% 46% 38% – 16%
732 (RV) ± 3.6% 45% 40% – 16%
428 (LV) ± 4.7% 50% 42% – 8%
Public Policy Polling (D) May 26–27, 2022 655 (V) ± 3.8% 47% 41% – 12%
Phillips Academy May 7–9, 2022 543 (RV) ± 4.2% 34% 36% – 30%
Moore Information Group (R) March 14–19, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 32% 8% 12%
Saint Leo University February 28 – March 12, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 45% 27% – 28%
Kurt Jetta (D) March 4, 2022 1,098 (A) ± 3.0% 45% 26% – 29%
893 (RV) ± 3.3% 45% 27% – 28%
446 (LV) ± 4.6% 49% 35% – 16%
University of North Florida February 7–20, 2022 685 (RV) ± 3.7% 46% 34% – 20%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy February 7–10, 2022 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 42% – 9%
Suffolk University January 26–29, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 41% 0% 10%
St. Pete Polls November 18–19, 2021 2,896 (LV) ± 1.8% 51% 44% – 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 9, 2021 867 (RV) ± 3.3% 45% 33% 3% 12%
842 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 36% 3% 10%
Saint Leo University October 17–23, 2021 500 (A) ± 4.5% 47% 29% – 25%
VCreek/AMG (R) September 23–27, 2021 405 (LV) ± 4.9% 42% 38% 5% 15%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies August 20–24, 2021 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 46% 34% 3% 11%
977 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 37% 3% 10%
Political Matrix/Listener Group (R) August 14–18, 2021 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 55% 45% – –
St. Pete Polls August 16–17, 2021 2,068 (RV) ± 2.2% 48% 46% – 6%
Change Research (D) August 14–17, 2021 1,585 (LV) ± 2.5% 47% 44% – 9%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) August 4–10, 2021 700 (RV) ± 3.7% 50% 39% 1% 9%
Political Matrix/Listener Group (R) June 27, 2021 681 (LV) ± 3.9% 60% 40% – –
Hypothetical polling

Marco Rubio vs. Aramis Ayala

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Marco
Rubio (R) 		Aramis
Ayala (D) 		Undecided
Cherry Communications (R) April 30 – May 8, 2021 602 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 39% –

Marco Rubio vs. Alan Grayson

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Marco
Rubio (R) 		Alan
Grayson (D) 		Other Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 9, 2021 867 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 34% 4% 12%
842 (LV) ± 3.4% 46% 37% 4% 10%
VCreek/AMG (R) September 23–27, 2021 405 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 32% 10% 14%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies August 20–24, 2021 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 46% 33% 4% 12%
977 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 36% 4% 11%

Marco Rubio vs. Stephanie Murphy

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Marco
Rubio (R) 		Stephanie
Murphy (D) 		Undecided
Cherry Communications (R) April 30 – May 8, 2021 602 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 41% –

Marco Rubio vs. generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Marco
Rubio (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon February 24–28, 2021 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 40% 14%
Data for Progress (D) September 15–22, 2020 620 (LV) ± 3.9% 42% 43% 15%

Debates

2022 United States Senate general election in Florida debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Marco Rubio Val Demings
1 Oct. 18, 2022 Palm Beach State College Todd McDermott P P

Results

United States Senate election in Florida, 2022
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Marco Rubio (incumbent) 4,474,847 57.68% +5.70%
Democratic Val Demings 3,201,522 41.27% −3.04%
Libertarian Dennis Misigoy 32,177 0.41% −1.71%
Independent Steven B. Grant 31,816 0.41% N/A
Independent Tuan TQ Nguyen 17,385 0.22% N/A
Write-in 267 0.00% ±0.00%
Total votes 7,758,126 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

By county

By congressional district

Rubio won 20 of 28 congressional districts.

District Rubio Demings Representative
1st 72% 27% Matt Gaetz
2nd 60% 39% Neal Dunn
3rd 62% 37% Kat Cammack
4th 59% 40% Aaron Bean
5th 64% 35% John Rutherford
6th 66% 33% Michael Waltz
7th 57% 42% Stephanie Murphy (117th Congress)
Cory Mills (118th Congress)
8th 63% 36% Bill Posey
9th 48% 51% Darren Soto
10th 39% 60% Val Demings (117th Congress)
Maxwell Frost (118th Congress)
11th 61% 38% Daniel Webster
12th 68% 31% Gus Bilirakis
13th 56% 42% Anna Paulina Luna
14th 45% 53% Kathy Castor
15th 57% 41% Laurel Lee
16th 60% 39% Vern Buchanan
17th 63% 36% Greg Steube
18th 68% 31% Scott Franklin
19th 68% 31% Byron Donalds
20th 28% 71% Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick
21st 61% 39% Brian Mast
22nd 46% 53% Lois Frankel
23rd 48% 51% Jared Moskowitz
24th 29% 69% Frederica Wilson
25th 45% 54% Debbie Wasserman Schultz
26th 70% 30% Mario Díaz-Balart
27th 57% 42% María Elvira Salazar
28th 63% 37% Carlos A. Giménez

Voter demographics

Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroup Demings Rubio No
answer 		% of
voters
Gender
Men 37 62 1 49
Women 48 51 1 51
Age
18–24 years old 57 41 2 7
25–29 years old 58 39 2 4
30–39 years old 55 43 N/A 13
40–49 years old 41 58 1 12
50–64 years old 38 62 N/A 32
65 and older 37 62 1 33
Race
White 35 64 1 64
Black 90 9 N/A 11
Latino 41 56 2 21
Race by gender
White men 28 71 N/A 32
White women 43 57 2 32
Black men 89 11 1 5
Black women 92 8 N/A 6
Latino men 42 55 2 10
Latina women 41 57 1 11
Education
High school or less 35 63 2 15
Some college education 42 58 1 25
Associate degree 42 57 2 19
Bachelor's degree 44 54 1 24
Advanced degree 48 51 1 17
Party ID
Democrats 97 3 N/A 28
Republicans 3 97 1 42
Independents 48 49 2 30
Ideology
Liberals 91 8 1 20
Moderates 57 41 1 39
Conservatives 7 93 2 42
Marital status
Married 40 60 1 59
Unmarried 50 48 2 41
Gender by marital status
Married men 33 66 1 30
Married women 46 53 1 29
Unmarried men 48 51 3 18
Unmarried women 52 47 2 23
First-time midterm election voter
Yes 42 58 4 11
No 44 55 N/A 89
Most important issue facing the country
Crime 32 66 2 10
Inflation 28 72 1 39
Gun policy 63 36 N/A 10
Immigration 12 88 N/A 10
Abortion 81 18 N/A 24
Area type
Urban 45 54 1 46
Suburban 42 57 2 44
Rural 31 68 N/A 10
Source: CNN

See also

  • Elections in Florida
  • Political party strength in Florida
  • Florida Democratic Party
  • Florida Republican Party
  • Government of Florida
  • 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Florida
  • 2022 Florida gubernatorial election
  • 2022 Florida House of Representatives election
  • 2022 Florida Senate election
  • 2022 Florida elections
  • 2022 United States gubernatorial elections
  • 2022 United States elections

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