The 2024 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Florida. Incumbent Republican Senator Rick Scott won a second term, defeating Democratic nominee Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. The primary election was held on August 20, 2024.
November 5, 2024 | |||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 78.9% | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Scott: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Mucarsel-Powell: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% | |||||||||||||||||
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Scott, then the governor of Florida, was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2018 by 0.12 points, defeating then-incumbent Bill Nelson. With the benefit of incumbency and the state's rightward trend, most political pundits considered the race to be favoring Scott to win re-election. On Election Day, Scott won by 12.78 percentage points, a significantly larger margin than most pre-election polls had suggested.
Out of all of Scott’s four statewide races (2010 and 2014 gubernatorial elections, 2018 and 2024 senatorial elections), this election was by far his best performance, and the first one he won decisively, as he narrowly won the latter three all by less than a 2% margin. Scott won majority-Hispanic Miami-Dade and Osceola counties for the first time in all of his statewide races, and according to exit polls Scott won 55% of Hispanic voters and also won 21% of African American voters.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Rick Scott, incumbent U.S. senator (2019–present)
Eliminated in primary
- John Columbus, actor
- Keith Gross, former assistant state attorney for Florida's 18th circuit court
Declined
- Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida (2019–present) and former U.S. representative from Florida's 6th congressional district (2013–2018) (ran for president)
- Byron Donalds, U.S. representative from Florida's 19th congressional district (2021–present) (ran for re-election)
- Matt Gaetz, U.S. representative from Florida's 1st congressional district (2017–2024) (ran for re-election)
Endorsements
Keith Gross
Organizations
- Republican Liberty Caucus
Rick Scott
U.S. executive branch officials
- John Bolton, United States National Security Advisor (2018–2019), United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2005–2006)
- Mike Pompeo, U.S. Secretary of State (2018–2021), Director of the CIA (2017–2018), and U.S. representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district (2011–2017)
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
U.S. senators
- Norm Coleman, former U.S. senator from Minnesota (2003–2009)
- Marco Rubio, U.S. senator from Florida (2011–2025)
U.S. representatives
- 19 Republican U.S. representatives from Florida
Governors
- Luis Fortuño, former governor of Puerto Rico (2009–2013)
Statewide officials
- Pam Bondi, former Florida attorney general (2011–2019)
- Ashley Moody, Florida attorney general (2019–2025)
- Wilton Simpson, Florida Commissioner of Agriculture (2023–present)
State legislators
- 81 state legislators
Territorial legislators
- Keren Riquelme, member of the Senate of Puerto Rico
Local officials
- 11 state attorneys
- 59 county sheriffs
- 115 county commissioners
Organizations
- 60 Plus Association
- American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)
- Associated Builders and Contractors of Florida
- Club for Growth
- Florida Association of Realtors
- Florida Police Chiefs Association
- National Association of Home Builders
- National Federation of Independent Business
- Republican Jewish Coalition
- Senate Conservatives Fund
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| John Columbus (R) | $23,174 | $22,857 | $317 |
| Keith Gross (R) | $2,449,122 | $2,440,444 | $8,679 |
| Rick Scott (R) | $29,350,647 | $26,466,192 | $4,345,058 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission | |||
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Rick Scott (incumbent) | 1,283,904 | 84.38% | |
| Republican | Keith Gross | 142,392 | 9.36% | |
| Republican | John Columbus | 95,342 | 6.26% | |
| Total votes | 1,521,638 | 100.0% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, former U.S. representative from Florida's 26th congressional district (2019–2021)
Eliminated in primary
- Stanley Campbell, IT company CEO and brother of rapper Uncle Luke
- Rod Joseph, consultant and Purple Heart recipient
- Brian Rush, former state representative (1987–1995) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022
Withdrew
- Phil Ehr, nonprofit executive, nominee for Florida's 1st congressional district in 2020 and candidate in 2018 (ran for U.S. House, endorsed Mucarsel-Powell)
- Alan Grayson, former U.S. representative from Florida's 9th congressional district (2009–2011, 2013–2017) and perennial candidate (ran for state senate)
Declined
- Stephanie Murphy, former U.S. Representative from Florida's 7th congressional district (2017-2023)
- Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, U.S. representative from Florida's 20th congressional district (2022–present) (ran for re-election)
- Fentrice Driskell, Minority Leader of the Florida House of Representatives (2022–present) from the 67th district (2018–present)
- Anna Eskamani, state representative (2018–present) (ran for re-election)
- Lois Frankel, U.S. representative from Florida's 22nd congressional district (2013–present) (ran for re-election, endorsed Mucarsel-Powell)
- Shevrin Jones, state senator from the 35th district (2021–present) (endorsed Mucarsel-Powell)
- Debbie Wasserman Schultz, U.S. representative from Florida's 25th congressional district (2004–present) (endorsed Mucarsel-Powell)
- Frederica Wilson, U.S. representative from Florida's 24th congressional district (2011–present)
Endorsements
Stanley Campbell
State legislators
- Tony Hill, former state senator (2002–2011)
Local officials
- Wayne Messam, mayor of Miramar (2015–present)
- Hazelle Rogers, Broward County commissioner and former state representative (2012–2016)
Labor unions
- Florida AFL–CIO
Rod Joseph
Organizations
- Vote Common Good
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
Federal officials
- Joe Biden, 46th president of the United States (2021–2025)
U.S. representatives
- Kathy Castor, U.S. representative from Florida's 14th congressional district (2007–present)
- Val Demings, U.S. representative from Florida's 10th congressional district (2017–2023)
- Lois Frankel, U.S. representative from Florida's 22nd congressional district (2013–present)
- Maxwell Frost, U.S. representative from Florida's 10th congressional district (2023–present)
- Gabby Giffords, U.S. representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2007–2012)
- Hakeem Jeffries, House Minority Leader (2023–present) from New York's 8th congressional district (2013–present)
- Al Lawson, U.S. representative from Florida's 5th congressional district (2017–2023)
- Debbie Wasserman Schultz, U.S. representative from Florida's 25th congressional district (2005–present)
State legislators
- 6 state senators
- 24 state representatives
Labor unions
- AFSCME
- SEIU Florida
Organizations
- Brady PAC
- CHC BOLD PAC
- Council for a Livable World
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
- EMILY's List
- End Citizens United
- Feminist Majority PAC
- Giffords
- Human Rights Campaign
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Latino Victory Fund
- League of Conservation Voters
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare PAC
- Peace Action
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- PODER PAC
- Reproductive Freedom for All
- Vote Mama
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Stanley Campbell (D) | $1,081,092 | $687,145 | $394,415 |
| Rod Joseph (D) | $28,596 | $20,855 | $7,741 |
| Alan Grayson (D) | $728,813 | $582,703 | $150,148 |
| Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) | $12,133,366 | $7,802,905 | $4,330,461 |
| Brian Rush (D) | $82,333 | $63,529 | $18,804 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission | |||
Polling
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Alan Grayson | Debbie Mucarsel- Powell | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research/FAU | June 8–9, 2024 | 346 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 12% | 43% | 45% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Debbie Mucarsel-Powell | 747,397 | 68.50% | |
| Democratic | Stanley Campbell | 213,777 | 19.59% | |
| Democratic | Brian Rush | 73,013 | 6.69% | |
| Democratic | Rod Joseph | 56,961 | 5.22% | |
| Total votes | 1,091,148 | 100.0% | ||
Independents and third-party candidates
Candidates
Declared
- Feena Bonoan (Libertarian), artist and nominee for U.S. Senate in Hawaii in 2022
- Ben Everidge (Independent), fundraising consultant and former legislative consultant to U.S. Senators Lawton Chiles and Ben Nelson
- Howard Knepper (write-in), real estate developer and perennial candidate
- Tuan Nguyen (Independent), system engineer and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Likely R | November 9, 2023 |
| Inside Elections | Likely R | September 26, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R | November 9, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | Lean R | August 26, 2024 |
| Elections Daily | Likely R | May 4, 2023 |
| CNalysis | Likely R | September 26, 2024 |
| RealClearPolitics | Lean R | October 15, 2024 |
| Split Ticket | Lean R | October 23, 2024 |
| 538 | Likely R | October 23, 2024 |
Post-primary endorsements
Rick Scott (R)
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D)
Federal officials
- Barack Obama, former president of the United States (2009–2017)
Statewide officials
- Alex Sink, former Chief Financial Officer of Florida (2007–2011)
- Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan (2019–present)
State legislators
- Dianne Hart, state representative
- Katherine Waldron, state representative
Local officials
- John Dailey, mayor of Tallahassee
- Jerry Demings, mayor of Orange County
- Daniella Levine Cava, mayor of Miami-Dade County
- Dean Trantalis, mayor of Fort Lauderdale
Labor unions
- Florida AFL–CIO
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Rick Scott (R) | Debbie Mucarsel- Powell (D) | Undecided | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight | through November 3, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 49.6% | 44.9% | 5.5% | Scott +4.7% |
| RealClearPolitics | September 29 – November 1, 2024 | November 3, 2024 | 48.9% | 44.3% | 6.8% | Scott +4.6% |
| 270toWin | October 23 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 49.3% | 44.5% | 6.2% | Scott +4.8% |
| TheHill/DDHQ | November 3, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 50.8% | 45.4% | 3.8% | Scott +5.4% |
| Average | 49.7% | 44.8% | 5.5% | Scott+4.9% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Rick Scott (R) | Debbie Mucarsel- Powell (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | November 2–3, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 50% | 43% | 3% | 4% |
| Victory Insights (R) | November 1–2, 2024 | 400 (LV) | – | 51% | 47% | – | 2% |
| Stetson University | October 25 – November 1, 2024 | 452 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 53% | 45% | 2% | – |
| Morning Consult | October 23 – November 1, 2024 | 2,022 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 48% | 45% | – | 7% |
| Cygnal (R) | October 26–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 45% | 3% | 3% |
| Mainstreet Research/FAU | October 19–27, 2024 | 897 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 46% | 2% | 2% |
| 913 (RV) | 50% | 46% | 2% | 3% | |||
| ActiVote | October 17–27, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 55% | 45% | – | – |
| St. Pete Polls | October 23–25, 2024 | 1,227 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 46% | – | 6% |
| Emerson College | October 18–20, 2024 | 860 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 53% | 47% | – | – |
| 48% | 44% | – | 8% | ||||
| Cherry Communications (R) | October 10–20, 2024 | 614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 45% | – | 4% |
| ActiVote | September 23 – October 20, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 52% | 48% | – | – |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 16–18, 2024 | 1,275 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 42% | 5% | 8% |
| University of North Florida | October 7–18, 2024 | 977 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 46% | 1% | 4% |
| RMG Research | October 14–17, 2024 | 788 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 43% | 3% | 3% |
| 52% | 44% | – | 3% | ||||
| YouGov | October 7–17, 2024 | 1,094 (RV) | ± 3.46% | 49% | 45% | – | 6% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 12–14, 2024 | 1,009 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 42% | 6% | 8% |
| Marist College | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,257 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 48% | – | 1% |
| 1,410 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 48% | – | 2% | ||
| New York Times/Siena College | September 29 – October 6, 2024 | 622 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% |
| 622 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 39% | – | 12% | ||
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | October 1–4, 2024 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 41% | 2% | 9% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | September 27 – October 2, 2024 | 2,946 (LV) | ± 1.7% | 44% | 41% | 4% | 10% |
| RMG Research | September 25–27, 2024 | 774 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 43% | 2% | 7% |
| 50% | 44% | – | 5% | ||||
| Public Policy Polling (D) | September 25–26, 2024 | 808 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
| 44% | 43% | 2% | 12% | ||||
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) | September 23–25, 2024 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 51% | 44% | – | 5% |
| Victory Insights (R) | September 22–25, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 44% | – | 12% |
| The Bullfinch Group | September 20–23, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 44% | – | 10% |
| 43% | 42% | 4% | 11% | ||||
| ActiVote | August 21 – September 22, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 54% | 46% | – | – |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | September 16–19, 2024 | 1,602 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 45% | 41% | 3% | 11% |
| Morning Consult | September 9–18, 2024 | 2,948 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 46% | 42% | – | 12% |
| Morning Consult | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 3,182 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 42% | – | 11% |
| Emerson College | September 3–5, 2024 | 815 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 45% | – | 9% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | August 25–28, 2024 | 850 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 40% | 4% | 14% |
| Cherry Communications (R) | August 15–26, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 44% | – | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | August 21–22, 2024 | 837 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 45% | – | 7% |
| 837 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 43% | 2% | 10% | ||
| Primary elections held | |||||||
| Mainstreet Research/FAU | August 10–11, 2024 | 1,055 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 43% | 11% | 7% |
| 1,040 (LV) | 47% | 43% | 3% | 6% | |||
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) | August 6–8, 2024 | 800 (LV) | – | 52% | 42% | – | 7% |
| University of North Florida | July 24–27, 2024 | 774 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 43% | – | 11% |
| Targoz Market Research | July 19–24, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
| 988 (LV) | 49% | 43% | – | 8% | |||
| Mainstreet Research/FAU | June 8–9, 2024 | 883 (A) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 40% | 6% | 10% |
| 771 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 43% | 4% | 8% | ||
| The Tyson Group (R) | June 6–9, 2024 | 1,050 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 33% | – | 21% |
| CBS News/YouGov | May 10–16, 2024 | 1,209 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 37% | – | 19% |
| Cherry Communications (R) | April 28 – May 7, 2024 | 609 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 54% | 39% | – | 7% |
| Mainstreet Research/FAU | April 15–17, 2024 | 865 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 52% | 35% | 5% | 9% |
| 815 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 53% | 36% | 4% | 8% | ||
| USA Today/Ipsos | April 5–7, 2024 | 1,014 (A) | ± 4.1% | 36% | 26% | 5% | 33% |
| Emerson College | April 3–7, 2024 | 608 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 38% | – | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | February 29 – March 1, 2024 | 790 (V) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 41% | – | – |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | July 5–10, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 44% | – | 13% |
Hypothetical polling
Rick Scott vs. Phil Ehr
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Rick Scott (R) | Phil Ehr (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D) | June 27–29, 2023 | 1,298 (LV) | – | 45% | 41% | 3% | 11% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Rick Scott (incumbent) | 5,977,706 | 55.57% | +5.52% | |
| Democratic | Debbie Mucarsel-Powell | 4,603,077 | 42.79% | −7.14% | |
| Independent | Ben Everidge | 62,683 | 0.58% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | Feena Bonoan | 57,363 | 0.53% | N/A | |
| Independent | Tuan TQ Nguyen | 56,586 | 0.53% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 13 | 0.00% | -0.01% | ||
| Total votes | 10,757,428 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Duval (largest municipality: Jacksonville)
- Hillsborough (largest municipality: Tampa)
- Miami-Dade (largest municipality: Miami)
- Monroe (largest city: Key West)
- St. Lucie (largest city: Port St. Lucie)
- Osceola (largest municipality: Kissimmee)
- Pinellas (largest municipality: St. Petersburg)
- Seminole (largest municipality: Sanford)
By congressional district
Scott won 20 of 28 congressional districts.
| District | Scott | Mucarsel-Powell | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 69% | 29% | Matt Gaetz |
| 2nd | 60% | 38% | Neal Dunn |
| 3rd | 60% | 38% | Kat Cammack |
| 4th | 55% | 43% | Aaron Bean |
| 5th | 60% | 38% | John Rutherford |
| 6th | 63% | 35% | Michael Waltz |
| 7th | 55% | 43% | Cory Mills |
| 8th | 59% | 38% | Bill Posey (118th Congress) |
| Mike Haridopolos (119th Congress) | |||
| 9th | 48% | 50% | Darren Soto |
| 10th | 38% | 59% | Maxwell Frost |
| 11th | 58% | 41% | Daniel Webster |
| 12th | 64% | 34% | Gus Bilirakis |
| 13th | 54% | 44% | Anna Paulina Luna |
| 14th | 46% | 53% | Kathy Castor |
| 15th | 54% | 44% | Laurel Lee |
| 16th | 57% | 42% | Vern Buchanan |
| 17th | 62% | 37% | Greg Steube |
| 18th | 63% | 35% | Scott Franklin |
| 19th | 67% | 32% | Byron Donalds |
| 20th | 28% | 70% | Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick |
| 21st | 57% | 42% | Brian Mast |
| 22nd | 46% | 53% | Lois Frankel |
| 23rd | 47% | 51% | Jared Moskowitz |
| 24th | 33% | 65% | Frederica Wilson |
| 25th | 45% | 54% | Debbie Wasserman Schultz |
| 26th | 68% | 31% | Mario Díaz-Balart |
| 27th | 56% | 42% | María Elvira Salazar |
| 28th | 61% | 38% | Carlos A. Giménez |
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