The 2024 United States Senate election in Michigan was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a Class I member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Michigan. It was held concurrently with the 2024 United States presidential election, other elections to the U.S. Senate, and elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as various state and local elections. Democratic Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin won her first term in office, narrowly defeating Republican former Congressman Mike Rogers. She succeeded Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow, who did not seek a fifth term.
November 5, 2024 | |||||||||||||||||
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Slotkin: 40-50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Rogers: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Tie: 40–50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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Primary elections took place on August 6, 2024. Slotkin won the Democratic nomination with 76% of the vote over actor Hill Harper and Rogers won the Republican nomination with 63% of the vote over former congressman Justin Amash. This was the first open race for this seat since 1994. As Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump carried Michigan on the same ballot, this was the first time Michigan voted for candidates of different political parties for U.S. senator and president since Democrat Don Riegle was re-elected as Republican George H.W. Bush carried the state in 1988.
On November 6, 2024, major news organizations projected that Slotkin had won the election. Slotkin received 23,847 fewer votes than Kamala Harris, while Rogers received 122,956 fewer votes than Donald Trump.
Background
Michigan is considered to be a purple state. However, Democrats had seen much more success in recent years in the state. At the time of the election, Democrats controlled both U.S. Senate seats, seven of 13 of the U.S. House congressional delegation, the minimum majority in both houses of the Michigan Legislature, and all statewide offices.
This race was considered to be competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean and that there was no incumbent; however, most polls and ratings had Slotkin as the slight favorite to win. In-fighting among Michigan Republicans after the 2022 elections left the state party poor in funding for the U.S. Senate race and defaulting on a bank loan. The MIGOP also failed to meet campaign finance reporting deadlines.
Democratic primary
Campaign
Elissa Slotkin led the field in fundraising with nearly $16 million raised as of April 2024. Nearly $6 million of this had been raised before August 2023. She continued to dominate fundraising in the second quarter of 2024 outpacing her Republican opponent by as much as three-to-one with 95% of her contributions coming from donors giving $100 or less according to the campaign.
Slotkin released the first TV ad of the primary campaign on May 28 which focused on her work in national security in the George W. Bush and Obama administrations.
Campaign contribution allegations
In November 2023, Hill Harper claimed that he had been offered $20 million in campaign contributions from former Motown Motion Picture Studios owner Linden Nelson if he would drop out of the Senate race to mount a primary challenge against U.S. Representative Rashida Tlaib. The allegation was denied by Nelson. Nasser Beydoun subsequently also alleged that former Michigan Democratic Party chair Lon Johnson had approached him with an identical offer to drop out of the Senate race and primary Tlaib. Johnson denied the claims, saying, "that's just crazy. I didn't offer him $20 million, or any other amount of money, to run against Rashida. That's insane." Beydoun was later disqualified from the ballot.
Candidates
Nominee
- Elissa Slotkin, U.S. representative for Michigan's 7th congressional district (2019–2025)
Eliminated in primary
- Hill Harper, actor and former member of the President's Cancer Panel
Disqualified
- Nasser Beydoun, businessman and former executive director of the Arab American Chamber of Commerce (endorsed Harper)
Withdrawn
- Zack Burns, attorney
- Leslie Love, former state representative for the 10th district (2014–2020)
- Pamela Pugh, president of the Michigan State Board of Education (2015–present) (ran for U.S. House)
Declined
- Jocelyn Benson, Michigan Secretary of State (2019–present)
- Pete Buttigieg, U.S. Secretary of Transportation (2021–2025), former mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012–2020), and candidate for President of the United States in 2020
- Debbie Dingell, U.S. representative for Michigan's 6th congressional district (2015–present) (ran for re-election)
- Mike Duggan, mayor of Detroit (2014–present)
- Abdul El-Sayed, Wayne County Health Director and candidate for governor of Michigan in 2018 (endorsed Harper)
- Garlin Gilchrist, lieutenant governor of Michigan (2019–present)
- Dan Kildee, U.S. representative for Michigan's 8th congressional district (2013–2025) (endorsed Slotkin)
- Andy Levin, former U.S. representative for Michigan's 9th congressional district (2019–2023)
- Karen McDonald, Oakland County Prosecutor (2021–present)
- Mallory McMorrow, state senator for the 8th district (2019–present)
- Dana Nessel, Michigan Attorney General (2019–present)
- Hillary Scholten, U.S. representative for Michigan's 3rd congressional district (2023–present) (ran for re-election, endorsed Slotkin)
- Debbie Stabenow, incumbent U.S. senator (2001–2025)
- Haley Stevens, U.S. representative for Michigan's 11th congressional district (2019–present) (ran for re-election, endorsed Slotkin)
- Shri Thanedar, U.S. representative for Michigan's 13th congressional district (2023–present) (ran for re-election)
- Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan (2019–present)
Endorsements
Hill Harper
U.S. representatives
- Brenda Lawrence, MI-14 (2015–2023)
State legislators
- Tyrone Carter, state representative from the 6th district (2019–present)
- Stephanie Young, state representative from the 8th district (2021–present)
Local officials
- Jerry Clayton, Washtenaw County sheriff (2008–2024)
- Abdul El-Sayed, director of the Wayne County Health Department
- Warren Evans, Wayne County executive (2015–present)
Individuals
- Nasser Beydoun, businessman and former candidate for this seat
- Dave Chappelle, comedian
- John Drew Sheard Sr., presiding bishop of the Church of God in Christ (2021–present)
Organizations
- Church of God in Christ Michigan/Canadian Council of Bishops PAC
- Emgage Michigan
- Michigan Democratic Party Black Caucus
Labor unions
- American Postal Workers Union Detroit District Area Local 295
- IATSE Local 26
Newspapers
- The Arab American News
- The Michigan Chronicle
Elissa Slotkin
Statewide elected officials
- James Blanchard, former governor of Michigan (1983–1991)
U.S. representatives
- Dan Kildee, MI-8 (2013–2025)
- Hillary Scholten, MI-3 (2023–present)
- Haley Stevens, MI-11 (2019–present)
- Jamie Raskin, MD-08 (2017-present)
State cabinet officials
- Randy Watkins, former Senior Investigator of the Michigan Office of Financial and Insurance Regulation (1979–2010)
State legislators
- Sarah Anthony, state senator from the 21st district (2023–present)
- Rosemary Bayer, state senator from the 13th district (2023–present)
- Winnie Brinks, Majority Leader of the Michigan Senate (2023–present) from the 29th district (2019–present)
- Jeremy Moss, state senator from the 7th district (2023–present)
- 9 state representatives
Local officials
- Barbara Byrum, Ingham County Clerk (2013–present)
- David Coulter, Oakland County Executive (2019–present)
- Tim Greimel, mayor of Pontiac (2021–present)
- Andy Meisner, former Oakland County Treasurer (2009–2021)
- Andy Schor, mayor of Lansing (2018–present)
- Robert Wittenberg, Oakland County Treasurer (2021–present)
Individuals
- Jon Horford, NBA basketball player
Organizations
- Brady PAC
- EMILY's List
- End Citizens United
- Feminist Majority PAC
- Giffords
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- League of Conservation Voters
- National Women's Political Caucus
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Reproductive Freedom for All
- VoteVets
Labor unions
- Amalgamated Transit Union
- IAFF Michigan
- IBEW Michigan
- International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers Michigan
- International Union of Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers
- IOUE Local 324
- Iron Workers' Union
- IUPAT
- Laborers' Union
- Michigan Building Trades Council
- Michigan Education Association
- Michigan Pipe Trades Association
- National Education Association
- SMART
- United Steelworkers District Council 1
- Utility Workers Union of America
Newspapers
- The Detroit News
Nasser Beydoun (disqualified)
Organizations
- Vote Common Good
Pamela Pugh (withdrawn)
Local officials
- Karen Weaver, former mayor of Flint (2015–2019)
Declined to endorse
Presidents
- Barack Obama, former president of the United States (2009–2017)
U.S. senators
- Debbie Stabenow, incumbent U.S. senator from Michigan (2001–2025)
Labor unions
- United Auto Workers
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Nasser Beydoun (D) | $855,335 | $678,582 | $148,721 |
| Hill Harper (D) | $2,037,766 | $1,596,454 | $441,312 |
| Leslie Love (D) | $23,395 | $17,017 | $17,017 |
| Pamela Pugh (D) | $90,638 | $81,363 | $9,275 |
| Elissa Slotkin (D) | $16,094,088 | $7,473,267 | $8,620,820 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission | |||
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Nasser Beydoun | Hill Harper | Leslie Love | Elissa Slotkin | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Research | June 3, 2024 | 268 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 1% | 8% | – | 53% | – | 38% |
| Mitchell Research | March 15–16, 2024 | 260 (LV) | – | 3% | 11% | – | 59% | – | 27% |
| Target Insyght | January 4–10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 0% | 7% | 2% | 65% | 26% | |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | December 28–29, 2023 | 549 (LV) | – | 2% | 12% | 3% | 50% | – | 34% |
| – | 14% | – | 56% | – | 31% | ||||
| Emerson College | August 1–2, 2023 | 551 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 2% | 8% | 2% | 34% | 29% | 25% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Elissa Slotkin | 712,791 | 76.33% | |
| Democratic | Hill Harper | 221,053 | 23.67% | |
| Total votes | 933,844 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Mike Rogers, former U.S. representative for Michigan's 8th congressional district (2001–2015)
Eliminated in primary
- Justin Amash, former U.S. representative for Michigan's 3rd congressional district (2011–2021)
- Sherry O'Donnell, physician and candidate for Michigan's 5th congressional district in 2022
Withdrawn
- James Craig, former chief of the Detroit Police Department (2013–2021) and disqualified candidate for Governor of Michigan in 2022 (endorsed Rogers)
- Michael Hoover, pest control company owner
- Peter Meijer, former U.S. representative for Michigan's 3rd congressional district (2021–2023)
- Sandy Pensler, former Wayne County commissioner and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 (endorsed Rogers, remained on ballot)
- Nikki Snyder, member of the Michigan State Board of Education (2017–present) (ran for U.S. House)
- Alexandria Taylor, former Allen Park City Attorney (ran for Michigan Supreme Court)
- J. D. Wilson, consulting firm owner (ran for U.S. House)
Declined
- Tom Barrett, former state senator for the 24th district (2019–2023) and nominee for Michigan's 7th congressional district in 2022 (ran for U.S. House)
- Brian Calley, former lieutenant governor of Michigan (2011–2019) and candidate for governor of Michigan in 2018
- Tudor Dixon, conservative media personality and nominee for Governor of Michigan in 2022
- John James, U.S. representative for Michigan's 10th congressional district (2023–present) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018 and 2020 (ran for re-election)
- Perry Johnson, businessman, former candidate for president in 2024 and disqualified candidate for Governor of Michigan in 2022
- Lisa McClain, U.S. representative for Michigan's 9th congressional district (2021–present) (endorsed Rogers)
- Candice Miller, Macomb County Public Works Commissioner (2017–present), former U.S. representative for Michigan's 10th congressional district (2003–2016), and former Michigan Secretary of State (1995–2003) (endorsed Rogers)
- John Tuttle, vice chair of the New York Stock Exchange
Campaign
Amash, Pensler and Rogers were certified to be on the Republican primary ballot at the end of May.
Residency controversy
Even though Rogers is a former Michigan congressman, he owns a home in Cape Coral, Florida, and was registered to vote in Florida in 2022. He has since purchased a home in White Lake Township, living outside Brighton while that home is remodeled. He also changed his voting registration back to Michigan. His Florida residency became the subject of negative ads against him. New controversy arose regarding the completion of Rogers's new home.
Endorsements
Justin Amash
U.S. senators
- Rand Paul, Kentucky (2011–present)
Newspapers and other media
- Detroit Free Press (primary only)
Organizations
- FreedomWorks (defunct)
- Republican Liberty Caucus
Sherry O'Donnell
Executive office officials
- Michael Flynn, former director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (2012–2014)
- Thomas Homan, former director of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (2017–2018)
State legislators
- David Agema, state representative from Michigan's 74th House of Representatives district (2007–2012)
Individuals
- Robert Malone, physician and biochemist
- Peter McCullough, cardiologist
- Ted Nugent, musician
Mike Rogers
Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
Federal officials
- John Bolton, former National Security Advisor (2018–2019)
U.S. senators
- Katie Britt, Alabama (2023–present)
- Shelley Moore Capito, West Virginia (2015–present)
- Tom Cotton, Arkansas (2015–present)
- Steve Daines, Montana (2015–present)
- Joni Ernst, Iowa (2015–present)
- John Kennedy, Louisiana (2016–present)
- Tim Scott, South Carolina (2013–present)
U.S. representatives
- Jack Bergman, MI-01 (2017–present)
- Lisa McClain, MI-09 (2021–present)
- Candice Miller, MI-10 (2003–2016)
- John Moolenaar, MI-02 (2015–present)
- Tim Walberg, MI-05 (2007–2009, 2011–present)
Local officials
- James Craig, former chief of the Detroit Police Department (2013–2021) and former 2024 candidate for this seat
Labor unions
- Police Officers Association of Michigan
Organizations
- Americans for Prosperity Action
- Michigan Farm Bureau
Sandy Pensler (withdrawn)
Individuals
- Vivek Ramaswamy, pharmaceutical executive and 2024 Republican presidential candidate
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Justin Amash (R) | $662,743 | $633,56 | $400,706 |
| Sherry O'Donnell (R) | $422,182 | $376,550 | $46,517 |
| Mike Rogers (R) | $5,005,548 | $2,489,477 | $2,516,070 |
| James Craig (R) | $136,670 | $136,670 | $0 |
| Michael Hoover (R) | $236,591 | $234,931 | $1,660 |
| Peter Meijer (R) | $1,083,664 | $985,747 | $97,916 |
| Sandy Pensler (R) | $4,959,782 | $3,894,186 | $1,065,595 |
| Sharon Savage (R) | $100,130 | $50,956 | $49,174 |
| Alexandria Taylor (R) | $26,120 | $26,120 | $0 |
| J. D. Wilson (R) | $8,086 | $6,438 | $1,647 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission | |||
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Justin Amash | James Craig | Peter Meijer | Sherry O'Donnell | Sandy Pensler | Mike Rogers | Other | Undecided | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pensler withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| Tarrance Group | July 8–10, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 14% | – | – | 5% | 14% | 52% | – | 16% | |||||
| Mitchell Research | June 3, 2024 | 266 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 8% | – | – | 0% | 3% | 28% | – | 61% | |||||
| Public Policy Polling (D) | May 22–23, 2024 | 486 (LV) | – | 11% | – | – | 3% | 12% | 30% | 3% | 41% | |||||
| Emerson College | April 30 – May 1, 2024 | 545 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 8% | – | – | 2% | 3% | 32% | – | 54% | |||||
| Meijer withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| Mitchell Research | March 15–16, 2024 | 288 (LV) | – | 6% | – | 7% | – | 1% | 27% | – | 59% | |||||
| Market Resource Group (R) | February 19–22, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | – | – | 7% | – | 2% | 23% | 6% | 62% | |||||
| Craig withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| Target Insyght | January 4–10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | 33% | 11% | 1% | 2% | 20% | 1% | 33% | |||||
| Public Policy Polling (D) | October 9–10, 2023 | 430 (LV) | ± 4.7% | – | 30% | – | – | – | 19% | – | 51% | |||||
| Emerson College | August 1–2, 2023 | 477 (RV) | ± 4.4% | – | – | 9% | – | – | 12% | 50% | 29% | |||||
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Rogers | 555,766 | 63.19% | |
| Republican | Justin Amash | 137,565 | 15.64% | |
| Republican | Sherry O'Donnell | 106,466 | 12.10% | |
| Republican | Sandy Pensler (withdrawn) | 79,772 | 9.07% | |
| Total votes | 879,569 | 100.0% | ||
Third-party candidates
Declared
- Doug Dern (Natural Law), chair of the Natural Law Party and perennial candidate
- Douglas Marsh (Green), newspaper journalist
- Joseph Solis-Mullen (Libertarian), college professor
- Dave Stein (U.S. Taxpayers), blue collar worker
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Tossup | October 8, 2024 |
| Inside Elections | Tilt D | September 26, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D | September 25, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | Lean D | October 9, 2024 |
| Elections Daily | Lean D | October 9, 2024 |
| CNalysis | Lean D | October 9, 2024 |
| RealClearPolitics | Tossup | October 9, 2024 |
| Split Ticket | Lean D | October 23, 2024 |
| 538 | Likely D | October 23, 2024 |
Post-primary endorsements
Mike Rogers (R)
U.S. senators
- John Thune, Senate Minority Whip (2021–present) from South Dakota (2005–present)
U.S. representatives
- Fred Upton, former U.S. representative from Michigan's 4th congressional district (1987–1993), Michigan's 6th congressional district (1993–2023)
Statewide elected officials
- Rick Snyder, former governor of Michigan (2011–2019)
Mayors
- Bill Bazzi, mayor of Dearborn Heights, Michigan
Organizations
- Michigan Farm Bureau
- College Republicans at the University of Michigan
Elissa Slotkin (D)
U.S. executive branch officials
- Kamala Harris, vice president of the United States (2021–2025)
- Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States (2009–2017)
U.S. senators
- Gary Peters, Michigan (2015–Present)
- Debbie Stabenow, Michigan (2001–2025)
U.S. representatives
- Liz Cheney, former U.S. representative from Wyoming's at-large congressional district (2017–2023) (Republican)
Statewide officials
- Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan (2019–present)
State legislators
- Adrian Boafo, Maryland state delegate from the 23rd district (2023–present)
Local officials
- Dave Bing, former mayor of Detroit (2009–2014)
Labor unions
- Actors' Equity Association
- United Auto Workers
Debates
| No. | Date | Host | Moderators | Link | Democratic | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||
| Slotkin | Rogers | |||||
| 1 | October 8, 2024 | WOOD-TV | Rick Albin | P | P | |
| 2 | October 14, 2024 | WXYZ-TV | Carolyn Clifford Alicia Smith Chuck Stokes | P | P | |
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Elissa Slotkin (D) | Mike Rogers (R) | Undecided | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | October 24 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.4% | 46.1% | 5.5% | Slotkin +2.3% |
| 538 | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.7% | 45.1% | 6.2% | Slotkin +3.6% |
| 270toWin | October 23 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.6% | 44.5% | 6.9% | Slotkin +4.1% |
| TheHill/DDHQ | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 49.1% | 46.3% | 4.6% | Slotkin +2.8% |
| Average | 48.7% | 45.5% | 5.8% | Slotkin +3.2% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Elissa Slotkin (D) | Mike Rogers (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | November 3–4, 2024 | 1,113 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 48% | 3% | 1% |
| Research Co. | November 2–3, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 50% | 44% | 2% | 4% |
| Patriot Polling (R) | November 1–3, 2024 | 858 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 49% | – | 1% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | November 1–3, 2024 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 47% | – | 5% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | November 1–2, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 48% | 2% | 2% |
| AtlasIntel | November 1–2, 2024 | 1,198 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | 3% | 1% |
| Emerson College | October 30 – November 2, 2024 | 790 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 45% | – | 6% |
| Mitchell Research | October 29 – November 2, 2024 | 585 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 48% | – | 4% |
| 48% | 46% | 1% | 2% | ||||
| New York Times/Siena College | October 29 – November 2, 2024 | 998 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
| 998 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 45% | – | 9% | ||
| Mainstreet Research/FAU | October 25 – November 2, 2024 | 713 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 43% | 1% | 9% |
| 733 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 42% | 2% | 10% | ||
| Morning Consult | October 23 – November 1, 2024 | 1,112 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 41% | – | 10% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R) | October 29–31, 2024 | 800 (LV) | – | 47% | 46% | – | 7% |
| YouGov | October 25–31, 2024 | 940 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 51% | 42% | – | 7% |
| 985 (RV) | 51% | 41% | – | 8% | |||
| ActiVote | October 12–31, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | 49% | – | – |
| Marist College | October 27–30, 2024 | 1,214 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 46% | 1% | 1% |
| 1,356 (RV) | ± 3.3 | 51% | 47% | 1% | 1% | ||
| AtlasIntel | October 27–30, 2024 | 1,136 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 46% | 3% | 1% |
| Echleon Insights | October 27–30, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 46% | 5% | 1% |
| Mitchell Research | October 28–29, 2024 | – (LV) | ± 2.5% | 47% | 49% | – | 10% |
| Tarrance Group (R) | October 26–29, 2024 | 620 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 50% | – | 2% |
| AtlasIntel | October 25–29, 2024 | 983 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | 3% | 1% |
| EPIC-MRA | October 24–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 42% | 7% | 3% |
| The Washington Post | October 24–28, 2024 | 1,003 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 45% | – | 7% |
| 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 45% | – | 9% | ||
| Fox News | October 24–28, 2024 | 988 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 47% | – | 2% |
| 1,275 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 51% | 46% | – | 2% | ||
| CNN/SSRS | October 23–28, 2024 | 726 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 48% | 42% | 9% | 1% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | October 26–27, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 48% | 1% | 3% |
| Emerson College | October 25–27, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
| Suffolk University | October 24–27, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 45% | 5% | 3% |
| Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) | October 23–27, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 47% | 1% | 4% |
| Patriot Polling (R) | October 24–26, 2024 | 796 (RV) | – | 51% | 48% | – | – |
| Glengariff Group | October 22–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 42% | 5% | 7% |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | October 16–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.49% | 48% | 39% | 5% | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 17–21, 2024 | 1,136 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 52% | 44% | 2% | 2% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | October 18–20, 2024 | 1,090 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 45% | – | 9% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 16–18, 2024 | 1,008 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 38% | 7% | 10% |
| AtlasIntel | October 12–17, 2024 | 1,529 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 2% | 2% |
| The Bullfinch Group | October 11–17, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 42% | – | 7% |
| RMG Research | October 10–16, 2024 | 789 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 43% | 4% | 5% |
| 49% | 45% | 1% | 4% | ||||
| Morning Consult | October 6–15, 2024 | 496 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 41% | – | 11% |
| Mitchell Research | October 14, 2024 | 589 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 43% | – | 10% |
| 45% | 40% | 4% | 10% | ||||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 12–14, 2024 | 682 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 40% | 6% | 10% |
| SoCal Strategies (R) | October 11–13, 2024 | 692 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 45% | – | 7% |
| Marketing Resource Group (R) | October 7–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 41% | 7% | 6% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | October 8–9, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 45% | 2% | 7% |
| Emerson College | October 5–8, 2024 | 950 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 44% | – | 8% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) | October 2–8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 46% | 1% | 4% |
| Research Co. | October 5–7, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 46% | 41% | 1% | 12% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,007 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 48% | 2% | 1% |
| Glengariff Group | October 1–4, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 43% | 5% | 5% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | September 27 – October 2, 2024 | 839 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 39% | 6% | 10% |
| Mitchell Research | September 30, 2024 | 709 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 44% | – | 7% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | September 28–30, 2024 | 1,086 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 47% | – | 6% |
| RMG Research | September 24–27, 2024 | 789 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 43% | 2% | 3% |
| New York Times/Siena College | September 21–26, 2024 | 688 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 42% | – | 12% |
| 688 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 40% | – | 16% | ||
| AtlasIntel | September 20–25, 2024 | 918 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 49% | 1% | 6% |
| BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) | September 19–25, 2024 | 416 (LV) | – | 47% | 44% | 3% | 5% |
| 50% | 46% | – | 4% | ||||
| Remington Research Group (R) | September 16–20, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 43% | – | 7% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | September 16–19, 2024 | 993 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 37% | 4% | 12% |
| Suffolk University | September 16–19, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 43% | 2% | 10% |
| UMass/YouGov | September 11–19, 2024 | 650 (LV) | ± 4.37% | 47% | 34% | 3% | 15% |
| Emerson College | September 15–18, 2024 | 875 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 42% | – | 11% |
| Tarrance Group (R) | September 14–18, 2024 | 607 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 47% | – | 4% |
| Morning Consult | September 9–18, 2024 | 1,297 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 37% | – | 12% |
| Marist College | September 12–17, 2024 | 1,282 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 51% | 45% | – | 3% |
| 1,138 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 52% | 45% | – | 2% | ||
| Quinnipiac University | September 12–16, 2024 | 905 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 46% | 1% | 2% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | September 6–9, 2024 | 556 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 39% | 4% | 14% |
| Morning Consult | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 1,368 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% |
| co/efficient (R) | September 4–6, 2024 | 931 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 39% | 38% | – | 23% |
| CBS News/YouGov | September 3–6, 2024 | 1,073 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 41% | 2% | 9% |
| ActiVote | August 6 – September 5, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 53% | 47% | – | – |
| YouGov | August 23 – September 3, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 39% | – | 11% |
| Cygnal (R) | August 28 – September 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 44% | 43% | – | 13% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | August 28–30, 2024 | 1,089 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 45% | – | 5% |
| Glengariff Group | August 26–29, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 35% | 6% | 15% |
| CNN/SRSS | August 23–29, 2024 | 708 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 41% | 11% | 1% |
| Emerson College | August 25–28, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
| EPIC-MRA | August 23–26, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 42% | – | 12% |
| TIPP Insights (R) | August 20–22, 2024 | 1,001 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 35% | 5% | 13% |
| 741 (LV) | 49% | 39% | 4% | 8% | |||
| Fabrizio Ward (R) | August 19–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 43% | 43% | – | 14% |
| The Bullfinch Group | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 38% | – | 15% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) | August 7–11, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 44% | – | 8% |
| New York Times/Siena College | August 5–8, 2024 | 619 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 42% | 41% | – | 16% |
| 619 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 46% | 43% | – | 11% | ||
| BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) | July 26 – August 2, 2024 | 406 (LV) | – | 50% | 42% | – | 8% |
| Primary elections held | |||||||
| Glengariff Group | July 22–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 41% | – | 13% |
| Fox News | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 46% | 1% | 3% |
| Emerson College | July 22–23, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 41% | – | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | July 17–18, 2024 | 650 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 38% | – | 17% |
| EPIC-MRA | July 13–17, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 40% | – | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | July 11–12, 2024 | 568 (RV) | – | 45% | 35% | – | 20% |
| YouGov | July 4–12, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 39% | 2% | 12% |
| 852 (LV) | – | 49% | 40% | 2% | 12% | ||
| Expedition Strategies | June 24 – July 8, 2024 | 275 (LV) | – | 46% | 40% | – | 14% |
| Remington Research Group (R) | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 584 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 43% | – | 10% |
| EPIC-MRA | June 21–26, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 42% | – | 14% |
| Emerson College | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 39% | – | 18% |
| Mitchell Research | June 3, 2024 | 697 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 36% | 33% | – | 31% |
| Mainstreet Research/FAU | May 30–31, 2024 | 723 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 41% | 41% | 4% | 14% |
| 636 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 42% | 3% | 12% | ||
| Mitchell Research | May 20–21, 2024 | 697 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 40% | 36% | – | 24% |
| KAConsulting (R) | May 15–19, 2024 | 600 (RV) | – | 43% | 37% | – | 20% |
| Glengariff Group | April 24–25, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 37% | – | 23% |
| Emerson College | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 40% | – | 19% |
| Emerson College | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 39% | – | 20% |
| Mitchell Research | March 15–16, 2024 | 627 (LV) | – | 37% | 37% | – | 26% |
| EPIC-MRA | February 13–18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 38% | – | 23% |
| Glengariff Group | January 2–6, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 37% | – | 25% |
| EPIC-MRA | November 10–16, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 37% | – | 24% |
| EPIC-MRA | August 6–11, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 37% | – | 21% |
| Emerson College | August 1–2, 2023 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 38% | – | 18% |
| Mitchell Research | July 11–13, 2023 | 639 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 38% | – | 17% |
Hypothetical polling
Nasser Beydoun vs. Mike Rogers
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Nasser Beydoun (D) | Mike Rogers (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glengariff Group | April 24–25, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 39% | 25% |
Hill Harper vs. Mike Rogers
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Hill Harper (D) | Mike Rogers (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glengariff Group | April 24–25, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 38% | 26% |
Elissa Slotkin vs. Justin Amash
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Elissa Slotkin (D) | Justin Amash (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glengariff Group | April 24–25, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 34% | 25% |
| Emerson College | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 35% | 22% |
Elissa Slotkin vs. James Craig
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Elissa Slotkin (D) | James Craig (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glengariff Group | January 2–6, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 38% | 27% |
| EPIC-MRA | November 10–16, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 38% | 22% |
| Emerson College | August 1–2, 2023 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 38% | 17% |
| EPIC-MRA | June 8–14, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 39% | 21% |
Elissa Slotkin vs. Peter Meijer
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Elissa Slotkin (D) | Peter Meijer (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glengariff Group | April 24–25, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 34% | 25% |
| Emerson College | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 34% | 24% |
| Glengariff Group | January 2–6, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 36% | 28% |
| Emerson College | August 1–2, 2023 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 42% | 36% | 22% |
| Mitchell Research | July 11–13, 2023 | 639 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 28% | 31% |
Elissa Slotkin vs. Sandy Pensler
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Elissa Slotkin (D) | Sandy Pensler (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glengariff Group | April 24–25, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 34% | 26% |
| Emerson College | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 37% | 21% |
Elissa Slotkin vs. Nikki Snyder
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Elissa Slotkin (D) | Nikki Snyder (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | August 1–2, 2023 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 36% | 20% |
Elissa Slotkin vs. John Tuttle
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Elissa Slotkin (D) | John Tuttle (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | August 1–2, 2023 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 35% | 20% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Elissa Slotkin | 2,712,686 | 48.64% | −3.62% | |
| Republican | Mike Rogers | 2,693,680 | 48.30% | +2.54% | |
| Libertarian | Joseph Solis-Mullen | 56,697 | 1.02% | N/A | |
| Green | Douglas Marsh | 53,978 | 0.97% | +0.02% | |
| Constitution | Dave Stein | 41,363 | 0.74% | +0.09% | |
| Natural Law | Doug Dern | 18,779 | 0.34% | −0.05% | |
| Total votes | 5,577,183 | 100.0% | |||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Eaton (largest city: Charlotte)
- Gogebic (largest city: Ironwood)
- Isabella (largest city: Mount Pleasant)
- Macomb (largest city: Warren)
- Muskegon (largest city: Muskegon)
By congressional district
Slotkin won seven of 13 congressional districts, including her own district, which elected a Republican to replace her.
| District | Slotkin | Rogers | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 39% | 59% | Jack Bergman |
| 2nd | 34% | 63% | John Moolenaar |
| 3rd | 52% | 45% | Hillary Scholten |
| 4th | 46% | 52% | Bill Huizenga |
| 5th | 36% | 61% | Tim Walberg |
| 6th | 60% | 36% | Debbie Dingell |
| 7th | 49% | 48% | Elissa Slotkin (118th Congress) |
| Tom Barrett (119th Congress) | |||
| 8th | 49% | 48% | Dan Kildee (118th Congress) |
| Kristen McDonald Rivet (119th Congress) | |||
| 9th | 35% | 63% | Lisa McClain |
| 10th | 47% | 50% | John James |
| 11th | 57% | 40% | Haley Stevens |
| 12th | 67% | 27% | Rashida Tlaib |
| 13th | 70% | 26% | Shri Thanedar |
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