The 2024 United States Senate election in Ohio was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Ohio. Incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown lost re-election to a fourth term, being defeated by Republican nominee Bernie Moreno. Primary elections took place on March 19, 2024. This was the first U.S. Senate race in Ohio where the incumbent was defeated since 2006, when Brown was first elected to the Senate.
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| Turnout | 69.9% 15.3 pp | ||||||||||||||||
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Moreno: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Brown: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% | |||||||||||||||||
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This race was one of two 2024 U.S. Senate races in which Democratic senators sought re-election in states where Republican Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections (the other being Montana). This was the most expensive U.S. Senate election of 2024, with a record-breaking $483.4 million spent in total. Brown's reelection was considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.
Moreno won 8 counties that Brown won in 2018, all of them located in northern Ohio, Ashtabula, Erie, Lake, Mahoning, Ottawa, Portage, Trumbull, and Wood. His campaign was aided by Republican nominee Donald Trump's 11.21% margin of victory in Ohio, helping secure an outright majority for Senate Republicans for the first time since 2021, with a net gain of four seats in the 2024 elections. Although Brown outperformed Kamala Harris in the concurrent presidential election by 2.54 percentage points, it was not enough to win. Brown received about 120,000 more votes than Harris, while Moreno received about 320,000 fewer votes than Trump. Libertarian candidate Don Kissick received around 195,000 votes, approximately 3% of the vote. This was the first time since 1954 that a Republican defeated an incumbent Democrat senator in Ohio. Along with Bob Casey Jr. in Pennsylvania and Jon Tester in Montana, Brown was one of three incumbent senators to lose re-election in 2024. Notably, all three were first elected in 2006, defeating Republican incumbents, and won re-election in 2012 and 2018.
Moreno's swearing in on January 3, 2025 gave Republicans control of both of Ohio's U.S. Senate seats for the first time since 2007. As Ohio's other U.S. senator, JD Vance, was elected vice president of the United States, Moreno became Ohio's senior senator upon Vance's resignation.
Background
After voting for Barack Obama in both the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, Ohio has trended increasingly Republican in subsequent years and is now considered a red state. Republicans hold all statewide offices in addition to the majority in both chambers of the state legislature. Republicans also have a majority of the state's US House delegation.
Donald Trump won Ohio in 2016 and again in 2020 by 8 points both times.
Republican JD Vance defeated Democrat Tim Ryan in 2022 for Ohio’s other U.S. Senate seat by slightly over 6 points.
Brown was first elected in 2006, defeating Senator Mike DeWine (who was subsequently elected governor), and won re-election in 2012 and 2018. If he had been reelected he would have been only the second Ohioan to be elected to the United States Senate four times, the other being John Glenn. Abortion was a key issue of the election. Brown held a pro-choice stance, while Moreno held a pro life stance and won the support of Ohio Right to Life. Brown raised the issue frequently. Because of this, the topic of abortion made the news. Initially, the seat was viewed by many to be a likely Democratic win, with some early polls showing Brown ahead, but Moreno attained a lead in the summer which grew through the duration of the campaign.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Sherrod Brown, incumbent U.S. senator (2007–2025)
Endorsements
Sherrod Brown
U.S. senators
- Mark Kelly, Arizona (2020–present)
Political parties
- Ohio Democratic Party
Organizations
- Bend the Arc
- Council for a Livable World
- End Citizens United
- Feminist Majority PAC
- Human Rights Campaign
- J Street PAC
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- League of Conservation Voters
- Natural Resources Defense Council
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection Action Fund
- Reproductive Freedom for All
- Sierra Club
- Swing Left
Labor unions
- National Education Association
- North Shore AFL-CIO
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Sherrod Brown (D) | $27,838,244 | $14,594,991 | $14,614,497 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission | |||
Polling
Hypothetical polling
Sherrod Brown vs. Tim Ryan vs. Shontel Brown
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Sherrod Brown | Shontel Brown | Tim Ryan | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 256 (LV) | ± 8.3% | 58% | 6% | 15% | 21% |
| Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 59% | 7% | 17% | 17% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Sherrod Brown (incumbent) | 535,305 | 100.0% | |
| Total votes | 535,305 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Bernie Moreno, former car dealership owner, father-in-law of U.S. representative Max Miller, and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2022
Eliminated in primary
- Matt Dolan, state senator from the 24th district (2017–2024) and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2022
- Frank LaRose, Ohio Secretary of State (2019–present)
Failed to qualify
- Doug Stuart, retired businessman
Declined
- Warren Davidson, U.S. representative for Ohio's 8th congressional district (2016–present) (running for re-election, endorsed Moreno)
- Mark Kvamme, venture capitalist and sports car racing driver (endorsed Moreno)
- Josh Mandel, former Ohio State Treasurer (2011–2019), nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012 and candidate in 2018 and 2022 (endorsed Moreno)
- Vivek Ramaswamy, pharmaceutical executive (ran unsuccessfully for president, endorsed Moreno)
Debates
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Candidates | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||
| Matt Dolan | Frank LaRose | Bernie Moreno | |||||
| 1 | January 22, 2024 | FOX 8 | Colleen Marshall Joe Toohey | FOX 8 | P | P | P |
| 2 | February 19, 2024 | Spectrum News | Mike Kallmeyer | Spectrum News | P | P | P |
| 3 | March 6, 2024 | WLWT | Sheree Paolello | YouTube | P | P | P |
Endorsements
Matt Dolan
U.S. senators
- Rob Portman, Ohio (2011–2023)
Governors
- Mike DeWine, governor of Ohio (2019–present)
State representatives
- Gayle Manning, HD-52 (2019–present)
Local officials
- Greg Lashutka, former mayor of Columbus (1992–2000)
Individuals
- Dee Haslam, co-owner of the Cleveland Browns
- Jimmy Haslam, co-owner of the Cleveland Browns
Newspapers
- The Plain Dealer (Republican primary only)
Frank LaRose
U.S. representatives
- Mike Turner, OH-10 (2003–present)
State representatives
- Mike Loychik, HD-65 (2021–present)
- Melanie Miller, HD-67 (2023–present)
- Josh Williams, HD-41 (2023–present)
Political parties
- Scioto County Republican Party
Organizations
- Ohio Right to Life (co-endorsement with Moreno)
Bernie Moreno
U.S. presidents
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
U.S. ambassadors
- Richard Grenell, former U.S. Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020)
U.S. senators
- John Barrasso, Wyoming (2007–present)
- Marsha Blackburn, Tennessee (2019–present)
- Norm Coleman, Minnesota (2003–2009)
- Ted Cruz, Texas (2013–present)
- Mike Lee, Utah (2011–present)
- Cynthia Lummis, Wyoming (2021–present)
- Roger Marshall, Kansas (2021–present)
- Rand Paul, Kentucky (2011–present)
- Marco Rubio, Florida (2011–2025)
- Eric Schmitt, Missouri (2023–present)
- Tommy Tuberville, Alabama (2021–present)
- JD Vance, Ohio (2023–2025)
U.S. representatives
- Warren Davidson, OH-08 (2016–present)
- Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House (1995−1999) from GA-06 (1979−1999)
- Jim Jordan, OH-04 (2007–present)
- Max Miller, OH-07 (2023–present) (candidate's son-in-law)
- Lee Zeldin, NY-01 (2015–2023)
Governors
- Kristi Noem, South Dakota (2019–2025)
Statewide officials
- Ken Blackwell, former Ohio Secretary of State (1999–2007)
- Dave Yost, Ohio Attorney General (2019–present)
Individuals
- David Bossie, president of Citizens United
- Mark Kvamme, venture capitalist
- Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor
- Vivek Ramaswamy, pharmaceutical executive and candidate for president in 2024
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman and executive vice president of the Trump Organization
Political parties
- Brown County Republican Party
- Clermont County Republican Party
- Cuyahoga County Republican Party
- Greene County Republican Party
- Preble County Republican Party
- Summit County Republican Party
- Warren County Republican Party
Organizations
- Citizens United Political Victory Fund
- Club for Growth
- Ohio Right to Life (co-endorsement with LaRose)
- Republican Jewish Coalition
- Senate Conservatives Fund
- Turning Point Action PAC
Declined to endorse
Statewide officials
- Jon Husted, lieutenant governor of Ohio (2019–2025)
Organizations
- National Republican Senatorial Committee
- Ohio Republican Party
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of February 28, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Matt Dolan (R) | $11,425,814 | $9,089,493 | $2,383,077 |
| Bernie Moreno (R) | $9,735,460 | $7,338,751 | $2,396,709 |
| Frank LaRose (R) | $2,217,016 | $1,625,972 | $591,043 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission | |||
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Matt Dolan | Frank LaRose | Bernie Moreno | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | March 17–18, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 40% | 16% | 44% | – | |
| Mainstreet Research/ Florida Atlantic University | March 13–15, 2024 | 818 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 31% | 19% | 29% | – | 21% |
| East Carolina University | March 8–11, 2024 | <1,298 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 39% | 27% | 34% | – | |
| SurveyUSA | March 6–11, 2024 | 533 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 18% | 16% | 22% | – | 44% |
| Emerson College | March 7–10, 2024 | 443 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 26% | 16% | 23% | 3% | 32% |
| SurveyUSA | February 27 – March 3, 2024 | 568 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 27% | 21% | 29% | – | 23% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) | February 25–26, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 19% | 21% | 31% | – | 27% |
| Emerson College | January 23–25, 2024 | 1844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 15% | 21% | 22% | – | 42% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) | December 12–14, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 16% | 18% | 22% | – | 44% |
| SurveyUSA | December 8–12, 2023 | 573 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 18% | 33% | 12% | 1% | 35% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) | December 3–5, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 18% | 19% | 23% | – | 40% |
| co/efficient (R) | November 18–20, 2023 | 950 (LV) | ± 3.18% | 13% | 14% | 15% | – | 58% |
| Emerson College/WJW-TV | November 10–13, 2023 | 468 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 15% | 18% | 10% | 32% | 25% |
| Data for Progress (D) | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 294 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 20% | 30% | 7% | 0% | 43% |
| Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 269 (LV) | ± 8.2% | 13% | 30% | 7% | 2% | 49% |
| Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 18% | 32% | 7% | 1% | 43% |
| Suffolk/USA Today | July 9–12, 2023 | 190 (RV) | – | 14% | 19% | 9% | – | 57% |
| East Carolina University | June 21–24, 2023 | 405 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 14% | 17% | 7% | 4% | 58% |
| Causeway Solutions (R) | May 19–27, 2023 | 526 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 11% | 24% | 6% | 17% | 42% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Bernie Moreno | 557,626 | 50.48% | |
| Republican | Matt Dolan | 363,013 | 32.86% | |
| Republican | Frank LaRose | 184,111 | 16.67% | |
| Total votes | 1,104,750 | 100.0% | ||
Libertarian Party
Nominee
- Don Kissick, auto worker and nominee for Ohio's 5th congressional district in 2018
Write-in candidates
Declared
- Stephen Faris, electrical engineer
- David Allen Pastorius
- Nathan Russell
- Tariq Shabazz (Green Party), U.S. Navy veteran and perennial candidate
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Tossup | September 25, 2024 |
| Inside Elections | Tossup | September 26, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean R (flip) | November 4, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | Tossup | September 27, 2024 |
| Elections Daily | Lean D | November 4, 2024 |
| CNalysis | Tilt D | November 4, 2024 |
| RealClearPolitics | Tossup | September 28, 2024 |
| Split Ticket | Tossup | October 23, 2024 |
| 538 | Tossup | October 23, 2024 |
Post-primary endorsements
Sherrod Brown (D)
Governors
- Andy Beshear, Kentucky (2019–present)
- Bob Taft, Ohio (1999–2007) (Republican)
- Gretchen Whitmer, Michigan (2019–present)
Individuals
- Harry Dunn, former U.S. Capitol Police officer
Organizations
- Giffords
- People for the American Way
Labor unions
- Actors' Equity Association
- Communications Workers of America
- Ohio Federation of Teachers
- United Auto Workers of America
- United Mine Workers of America
Bernie Moreno (R)
Governors
- Mike DeWine, Ohio (2019–present)
Federal officials
- John Bolton, former National Security Advisor (2018–2019) and former Ambassador to the United Nations (2005–2006)
U.S. senators
- John Thune, Senate Minority Whip (2021–2025) from South Dakota (2005–present)
Statewide officials
- Keith Faber, Ohio State Auditor (2019–present)
- Jon Husted, lieutenant governor of Ohio (2019–2025)
- Frank LaRose, Ohio Secretary of State (2019–present)
- Robert Sprague, Ohio State Treasurer (2019–present)
Individuals
- Ben Shapiro, editor emeritus of The Daily Wire
Organizations
- College Republicans of America
- Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Sherrod Brown (D) | $91,399,138 | $88,358,633 | $4,411,749 |
| Bernie Moreno (R) | $24,237,971 | $21,447,672 | $2,636,429 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission | |||
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Sherrod Brown (D) | Bernie Moreno (R) | Undecided | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 47.1% | 47.8% | 5.1% | Moreno +0.7% |
| RealClearPolitics | October 23 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 46.3% | 48.0% | 5.7% | Moreno +1.7% |
| 270toWin | October 10 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 47.3% | 47.0% | 5.7% | Brown +0.3% |
| TheHill/DDHQ | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 46.8% | 48.9% | 4.3% | Moreno +2.1% |
| Average | 46.9% | 47.9% | 5.2% | Moreno +1.0% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Sherrod Brown (D) | Bernie Moreno (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | November 3–4, 2024 | 1,022 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 49% | 3% | 3% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | November 2–4, 2024 | 1,095 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 48% | 2% | 2% |
| Emerson College | October 30 – November 2, 2024 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 48% | – | 6% |
| 48% | 52% | – | – | ||||
| Morning Consult | October 23 – November 1, 2024 | 1,254 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 47% | – | 7% |
| Miami University | October 28–30, 2024 | 857 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 48% | 46% | 3% | 2% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | October 25–28, 2024 | 1,127 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 47% | 2% | 3% |
| ActiVote | October 14–28, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 51% | – | – |
| J.L. Partners (R) | October 22–24, 2024 | 997 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 52% | 3% | – |
| University of Akron | September 12 – October 24, 2024 | 1,241 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 44% | – | 10% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R) | October 19–22, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 49% | 3% | 3% |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | October 10–21, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 45% | 1% | 7% |
| ActiVote | September 23 – October 20, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 52% | – | – |
| Morning Consult | October 6–15, 2024 | 490 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 47% | 1% | 6% |
| The Washington Post | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,002 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 47% | 1% | 3% |
| 1,002 (RV) | 48% | 47% | 1% | 4% | |||
| Marist College | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,327 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 48% | – | 2% |
| 1,511 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 48% | 1% | 2% | ||
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | September 18–27, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 45% | – | 6% |
| New York Times/Siena College | September 21–26, 2024 | 687 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 43% | – | 10% |
| 687 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 46% | 41% | – | 13% | ||
| ActiVote | August 16 – September 22, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 51% | – | – |
| RMG Research | September 18–20, 2024 | 781 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 48% | 5% | – |
| Morning Consult | September 9–18, 2024 | 1,488 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 44% | – | 10% |
| Morning Consult | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 1,558 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 43% | – | 11% |
| SoCal Strategies (R) | August 31 – September 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 50% | 45% | – | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | August 13–17, 2024 | 1,267 (LV) | – | 47% | 42% | – | 11% |
| ActiVote | July 20 – August 12, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 52.5% | 47.5% | – | – |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) | July 23–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 42% | 1% | 11% |
| Remington Research Group (R) | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 611 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 44% | – | 7% |
| Marist College | June 3–6, 2024 | 1,137 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 45% | 1% | 4% |
| National Public Affairs | May 28–29, 2024 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 54% | 46% | – | – |
| Primary elections held | |||||||
| Mainstreet Research/FAU | March 13–15, 2024 | 818 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 36% | – | 17% |
| East Carolina University | March 8–11, 2024 | 1,298 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 41% | 3% | 12% |
| SurveyUSA | March 6–11, 2024 | 533 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 37% | – | 20% |
| Emerson College | March 7–10, 2024 | 1,300 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 39% | 34% | 6% | 21% |
| Emerson College | January 23–25, 2024 | 1844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 39% | 37% | 5% | 18% |
| Emerson College | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 32% | – | 26% |
| Data for Progress (D) | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
| Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 26% | 1% | 25% |
| Emerson College | October 1–3, 2023 | 438 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 35% | 33% | – | 32% |
| Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 28% | 0% | 27% |
| Suffolk University | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 41% | – | 10% |
| East Carolina University | June 21–24, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 42% | 2% | 11% |
Hypothetical polling
Sherrod Brown vs. Matt Dolan
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Sherrod Brown (D) | Matt Dolan (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research/FAU | March 13–15, 2024 | 818 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 41% | – | 14% |
| East Carolina University | March 8–11, 2024 | 1,298 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 41% | 43% | 4% | 12% |
| SurveyUSA | March 6–11, 2024 | 533 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 42% | 39% | – | 18% |
| Emerson College | March 7–10, 2024 | 1,300 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 37% | 34% | 7% | 22% |
| Emerson College | January 23–25, 2024 | 1844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 38% | 37% | 5% | 20% |
| Emerson/WJW-TV | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 38% | – | 22% |
| Data for Progress (D) | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | – | 7% |
| Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 30% | 0% | 25% |
| Emerson College | October 1–3, 2023 | 438 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 36% | 38% | – | 26% |
| Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 33% | 0% | 22% |
| Suffolk University | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 43% | – | 11% |
| East Carolina University | June 21–24, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 44% | 4% | 7% |
Sherrod Brown vs. Frank LaRose
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Sherrod Brown (D) | Frank LaRose (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research/ Florida Atlantic University | March 13–15, 2024 | 818 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 37% | – | 15% |
| East Carolina University | March 8–11, 2024 | 1,298 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 40% | 4% | 12% |
| SurveyUSA | March 6–11, 2024 | 533 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 36% | – | 19% |
| Emerson College | March 7–10, 2024 | 1,300 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 39% | 33% | 7% | 21% |
| Emerson College | January 23–25, 2024 | 1844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 39% | 37% | 6% | 18% |
| Emerson/WJW-TV | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 36% | – | 24% |
| Data for Progress (D) | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | – | 8% |
| Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 31% | 0% | 25% |
| Emerson College | October 1–3, 2023 | 438 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 38% | 39% | – | 23% |
| Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 32% | 0% | 23% |
| Suffolk University | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 45% | – | 10% |
| East Carolina University | June 21–24, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 42% | 4% | 11% |
Sherrod Brown vs. Joel Mutchler
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Sherrod Brown (D) | Joel Mutchler (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D) | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 43% | - | 9% |
Sherrod Brown vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Sherrod Brown (D) | Generic Republican | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Causeway Solutions (R) | May 19–27, 2023 | 1639 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 39% | 37% | 24% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Bernie Moreno | 2,857,383 | 50.09% | +3.51% | |
| Democratic | Sherrod Brown (incumbent) | 2,650,949 | 46.47% | −6.93% | |
| Libertarian | Don Kissick | 195,648 | 3.43% | +3.43% | |
| Write-in | 640 | 0.01% | -0.01% | ||
| Total votes | 5,704,620 | 100.00% | |||
| Turnout | 69.91% | +15.26 | |||
| Republican gain from Democratic | |||||
By county
| County | Bernie Moreno Republican | Sherrod Brown Democratic | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Adams | 9,325 | 76.60% | 2,447 | 20.10% | 401 | 3.29% | 6,878 | 56.50% | 12,173 |
| Allen | 30,208 | 65.69% | 14,120 | 30.70% | 1,660 | 3.61% | 16,088 | 34.99% | 45,988 |
| Ashland | 17,894 | 68.32% | 7,280 | 27.79% | 1,019 | 3.89% | 10,614 | 40.53% | 26,193 |
| Ashtabula | 24,117 | 56.50% | 16,785 | 39.33% | 1,780 | 4.17% | 7,332 | 17.17% | 42,682 |
| Athens | 10,013 | 39.06% | 14,696 | 57.32% | 928 | 3.62% | −4,683 | −18.26% | 25,637 |
| Auglaize | 19,363 | 76.02% | 5,248 | 20.60% | 861 | 3.38% | 14,115 | 55.42% | 25,472 |
| Belmont | 20,146 | 65.51% | 9,476 | 30.82% | 1,129 | 3.67% | 10,670 | 34.69% | 30,751 |
| Brown | 15,622 | 74.46% | 4,610 | 21.97% | 748 | 3.57% | 11,012 | 52.49% | 20,980 |
| Butler | 104,952 | 57.91% | 69,734 | 38.48% | 6,557 | 3.62% | 35,218 | 19.43% | 181,243 |
| Carroll | 9,543 | 69.87% | 3,545 | 25.95% | 571 | 4.18% | 5,998 | 43.92% | 13,659 |
| Champaign | 13,917 | 68.68% | 5,547 | 27.37% | 801 | 3.95% | 8,370 | 41.31% | 20,265 |
| Clark | 36,611 | 58.45% | 23,630 | 37.73% | 2,393 | 3.82% | 12,981 | 20.72% | 62,634 |
| Clermont | 70,592 | 62.43% | 37,825 | 33.45% | 4,649 | 4.11% | 32,767 | 28.98% | 113,066 |
| Clinton | 14,513 | 70.61% | 5,154 | 25.08% | 887 | 4.32% | 9,359 | 45.53% | 20,554 |
| Columbiana | 31,757 | 66.72% | 13,902 | 29.21% | 1,935 | 4.07% | 17,855 | 37.51% | 47,594 |
| Coshocton | 11,011 | 68.03% | 4,457 | 27.54% | 717 | 4.43% | 6,554 | 40.49% | 16,185 |
| Crawford | 13,938 | 69.24% | 5,400 | 26.82% | 793 | 3.94% | 8,538 | 42.42% | 20,131 |
| Cuyahoga | 170,671 | 30.00% | 384,042 | 67.49% | 14,352 | 2.52% | −213,371 | −37.49% | 569,065 |
| Darke | 20,615 | 76.75% | 5,359 | 19.95% | 886 | 3.30% | 15,256 | 56.80% | 26,860 |
| Defiance | 12,028 | 64.22% | 5,880 | 31.39% | 822 | 4.39% | 6,148 | 32.83% | 18,730 |
| Delaware | 65,715 | 49.41% | 63,697 | 47.89% | 3,582 | 2.69% | 2,018 | 1.52% | 132,994 |
| Erie | 19,654 | 50.00% | 18,117 | 46.09% | 1,536 | 3.91% | 1,537 | 3.91% | 39,307 |
| Fairfield | 47,342 | 56.45% | 33,697 | 40.18% | 2,819 | 3.36% | 13,645 | 16.27% | 83,858 |
| Fayette | 8,712 | 70.30% | 3,207 | 25.88% | 474 | 3.82% | 5,505 | 44.42% | 12,393 |
| Franklin | 186,441 | 31.65% | 385,850 | 65.50% | 16,790 | 2.85% | −199,409 | −33.85% | 589,081 |
| Fulton | 14,450 | 65.44% | 6,764 | 30.63% | 868 | 3.93% | 7,686 | 34.81% | 22,082 |
| Gallia | 9,316 | 73.22% | 2,912 | 22.89% | 496 | 3.90% | 6,404 | 50.33% | 12,724 |
| Geauga | 30,987 | 56.72% | 22,315 | 40.85% | 1,330 | 2.43% | 8,672 | 15.87% | 54,632 |
| Greene | 49,477 | 55.06% | 37,327 | 41.54% | 3,052 | 3.40% | 12,150 | 13.52% | 89,856 |
| Guernsey | 11,836 | 68.07% | 4,839 | 27.83% | 712 | 4.10% | 6,997 | 40.24% | 17,387 |
| Hamilton | 158,523 | 38.88% | 235,825 | 57.84% | 13,394 | 3.28% | −77,302 | −18.96% | 407,742 |
| Hancock | 23,803 | 63.44% | 12,170 | 32.44% | 1,547 | 4.12% | 11,633 | 31.00% | 37,520 |
| Hardin | 8,839 | 69.10% | 3,367 | 26.32% | 585 | 4.57% | 5,472 | 42.78% | 12,791 |
| Harrison | 4,891 | 69.20% | 1,857 | 26.27% | 320 | 4.53% | 3,034 | 42.93% | 7,068 |
| Henry | 9,685 | 66.32% | 4,356 | 29.83% | 562 | 3.85% | 5,329 | 36.49% | 14,603 |
| Highland | 14,884 | 75.45% | 4,152 | 21.05% | 692 | 3.51% | 10,732 | 54.40% | 19,728 |
| Hocking | 8,599 | 64.67% | 4,125 | 31.02% | 572 | 4.30% | 4,474 | 33.65% | 13,296 |
| Holmes | 9,699 | 79.52% | 2,117 | 17.36% | 381 | 3.12% | 7,582 | 62.16% | 12,197 |
| Huron | 17,090 | 63.69% | 8,452 | 31.50% | 1,289 | 4.80% | 8,638 | 32.19% | 26,831 |
| Jackson | 10,299 | 72.95% | 3,346 | 23.70% | 472 | 3.34% | 6,953 | 49.25% | 14,117 |
| Jefferson | 19,795 | 64.25% | 9,819 | 31.87% | 1,196 | 3.88% | 9,976 | 32.38% | 30,810 |
| Knox | 21,363 | 66.84% | 9,537 | 29.84% | 1,061 | 3.32% | 11,826 | 37.00% | 31,961 |
| Lake | 64,089 | 50.76% | 58,125 | 46.04% | 4,045 | 3.20% | 5,964 | 4.72% | 126,259 |
| Lawrence | 18,077 | 68.66% | 7,192 | 27.32% | 1,060 | 4.03% | 10,885 | 41.34% | 26,329 |
| Licking | 55,320 | 58.66% | 35,373 | 37.51% | 3,616 | 3.83% | 19,947 | 21.15% | 94,309 |
| Logan | 16,763 | 71.77% | 5,614 | 24.03% | 981 | 4.20% | 11,149 | 47.74% | 23,358 |
| Lorain | 71,759 | 45.95% | 79,307 | 50.78% | 5,115 | 3.28% | −7,548 | −4.83% | 156,181 |
| Lucas | 72,544 | 38.38% | 107,783 | 57.02% | 8,703 | 4.60% | −35,239 | −18.64% | 189,030 |
| Madison | 13,347 | 65.24% | 6,322 | 30.90% | 789 | 3.86% | 7,025 | 34.34% | 20,458 |
| Mahoning | 54,067 | 48.49% | 53,847 | 48.29% | 3,585 | 3.22% | 220 | 0.20% | 111,499 |
| Marion | 16,763 | 62.59% | 8,824 | 32.95% | 1,195 | 4.46% | 7,939 | 29.64% | 26,782 |
| Medina | 58,915 | 55.92% | 43,173 | 40.98% | 3,262 | 3.10% | 15,742 | 14.94% | 105,350 |
| Meigs | 7,385 | 72.30% | 2,456 | 24.04% | 374 | 3.66% | 4,929 | 48.26% | 10,215 |
| Mercer | 18,432 | 78.54% | 4,337 | 18.48% | 1,057 | 4.50% | 14,095 | 60.06% | 23,826 |
| Miami | 39,225 | 66.72% | 17,525 | 29.81% | 2,039 | 3.47% | 21,700 | 36.91% | 58,789 |
| Monroe | 4,715 | 70.89% | 1,725 | 25.94% | 211 | 3.17% | 2,990 | 44.95% | 6,651 |
| Montgomery | 112,324 | 44.58% | 130,464 | 51.78% | 9,146 | 3.63% | −18,140 | −7.20% | 251,934 |
| Morgan | 4,587 | 69.07% | 1,802 | 27.13% | 252 | 3.79% | 2,785 | 41.94% | 6,641 |
| Morrow | 13,197 | 71.20% | 4,610 | 24.87% | 727 | 3.92% | 8,587 | 46.33% | 18,534 |
| Muskingum | 25,408 | 65.25% | 11,852 | 30.44% | 1,680 | 4.31% | 13,556 | 34.81% | 38,940 |
| Noble | 4,555 | 75.00% | 1,316 | 21.67% | 202 | 3.33% | 3,239 | 53.33% | 6,073 |
| Ottawa | 13,317 | 56.19% | 9,460 | 39.92% | 921 | 3.89% | 3,857 | 16.27% | 23,698 |
| Paulding | 6,678 | 72.67% | 2,056 | 22.37% | 456 | 4.96% | 4,622 | 50.30% | 9,190 |
| Perry | 11,626 | 69.32% | 4,492 | 26.78% | 654 | 3.90% | 7,134 | 42.54% | 16,772 |
| Pickaway | 19,613 | 67.51% | 8,452 | 29.09% | 986 | 3.39% | 11,161 | 38.42% | 29,051 |
| Pike | 8,264 | 68.62% | 3,364 | 27.93% | 415 | 3.45% | 4,900 | 40.69% | 12,043 |
| Portage | 42,163 | 51.27% | 37,082 | 45.09% | 3,000 | 3.65% | 5,081 | 6.18% | 82,245 |
| Preble | 15,806 | 73.41% | 4,940 | 22.94% | 785 | 3.65% | 10,866 | 50.47% | 21,531 |
| Putnam | 15,582 | 79.08% | 3,573 | 18.13% | 549 | 2.79% | 12,009 | 60.95% | 19,704 |
| Richland | 37,368 | 64.71% | 18,488 | 32.02% | 1,891 | 3.27% | 18,880 | 32.69% | 57,747 |
| Ross | 20,402 | 62.42% | 11,125 | 34.03% | 1,160 | 3.55% | 9,277 | 28.39% | 32,687 |
| Sandusky | 16,951 | 57.94% | 10,782 | 36.86% | 1,522 | 5.20% | 6,169 | 21.08% | 29,255 |
| Scioto | 20,509 | 67.20% | 8,935 | 29.28% | 1,075 | 3.52% | 11,574 | 37.92% | 30,519 |
| Seneca | 15,420 | 61.45% | 8,509 | 33.91% | 1,163 | 4.63% | 6,911 | 27.54% | 25,092 |
| Shelby | 19,275 | 76.88% | 4,927 | 19.65% | 868 | 3.46% | 14,348 | 57.23% | 25,070 |
| Stark | 99,365 | 54.67% | 75,434 | 41.51% | 6,941 | 3.82% | 23,931 | 13.16% | 181,740 |
| Summit | 111,573 | 41.13% | 150,517 | 55.49% | 9,174 | 3.38% | −38,944 | −14.36% | 271,264 |
| Trumbull | 48,755 | 50.97% | 43,178 | 45.14% | 3,722 | 3.89% | 5,577 | 5.83% | 95,655 |
| Tuscarawas | 27,395 | 64.25% | 13,501 | 31.67% | 1,740 | 4.08% | 13,894 | 32.58% | 42,636 |
| Union | 21,926 | 59.32% | 13,719 | 37.12% | 1,315 | 3.56% | 8,207 | 22.20% | 36,960 |
| Van Wert | 10,826 | 74.12% | 3,204 | 21.93% | 577 | 3.95% | 7,622 | 52.19% | 14,607 |
| Vinton | 4,018 | 71.76% | 1,360 | 24.29% | 221 | 3.95% | 2,658 | 47.47% | 5,599 |
| Warren | 84,796 | 61.06% | 49,350 | 35.54% | 4,726 | 3.40% | 35,446 | 25.52% | 138,872 |
| Washington | 19,865 | 65.78% | 9,275 | 30.71% | 1,061 | 3.51% | 10,590 | 35.07% | 30,201 |
| Wayne | 33,532 | 63.57% | 17,313 | 32.82% | 1,900 | 3.60% | 16,219 | 30.75% | 52,745 |
| Williams | 12,036 | 66.80% | 5,043 | 27.99% | 940 | 5.22% | 6,993 | 38.81% | 18,019 |
| Wood | 32,801 | 49.10% | 31,242 | 46.77% | 2,758 | 4.13% | 1,559 | 2.33% | 66,801 |
| Wyandot | 7,813 | 69.29% | 2,996 | 26.57% | 467 | 4.14% | 4,817 | 42.72% | 11,276 |
| Totals | 2,857,383 | 50.09% | 2,650,949 | 46.47% | 196,288 | 3.44% | 206,434 | 3.62% | 5,704,620 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Ashtabula (largest city: Ashtabula)
- Erie (largest city: Sandusky)
- Lake (largest city: Mentor)
- Mahoning (largest city: Youngstown)
- Ottawa (largest city: Port Clinton)
- Portage (largest city: Kent)
- Trumbull (largest city: Warren)
- Wood (largest city: Bowling Green)
By congressional district
Moreno won nine of 15 congressional districts, with the remaining six going to Brown, including one that elected a Republican.
| District | Brown | Moreno | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 53.7% | 43.1% | Greg Landsman |
| 2nd | 28.8% | 67.4% | Brad Wenstrup (118th Congress) |
| David Taylor (119th Congress) | |||
| 3rd | 71.1% | 26.4% | Joyce Beatty |
| 4th | 34.0% | 62.5% | Jim Jordan |
| 5th | 38.2% | 58.1% | Bob Latta |
| 6th | 36.6% | 59.7% | Michael Rulli |
| 7th | 47.7% | 49.4% | Max Miller |
| 8th | 39.7% | 56.8% | Warren Davidson |
| 9th | 48.1% | 47.4% | Marcy Kaptur |
| 10th | 48.7% | 47.7% | Mike Turner |
| 11th | 78.4% | 19.2% | Shontel Brown |
| 12th | 36.1% | 60.3% | Troy Balderson |
| 13th | 52.1% | 44.5% | Emilia Sykes |
| 14th | 44.2% | 52.3% | David Joyce |
| 15th | 47.5% | 49.1% | Mike Carey |
Exit poll
| Demographic subgroup | Brown | Moreno | % of total vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ideology | |||
| Liberals | 92 | 7 | 22 |
| Moderates | 58 | 38 | 41 |
| Conservatives | 8 | 88 | 37 |
| Party | |||
| Democrats | 95 | 4 | 31 |
| Republicans | 7 | 90 | 41 |
| Independents | 52 | 43 | 28 |
| Biden job approval | |||
| Approve | 96 | 3 | 40 |
| Disapprove | 15 | 82 | 59 |
| Gender | |||
| Men | 41 | 55 | 47 |
| Women | 51 | 45 | 53 |
| Race/ethnicity | |||
| White | 42 | 55 | 85 |
| Black | 89 | 10 | 8 |
| Other | N/A | N/A | 7 |
| Gender by race | |||
| White men | 38 | 59 | 41 |
| White women | 45 | 51 | 44 |
| Black men | 79 | 18 | 3 |
| Black women | 95 | 5 | 5 |
| Age | |||
| 18–29 years old | 51 | 43 | 11 |
| 30–44 years old | 53 | 43 | 27 |
| 45-64 years old | 39 | 58 | 36 |
| 65 and older | 48 | 49 | 26 |
| Area type | |||
| Urban | 64 | 33 | 31 |
| Suburban | 44 | 52 | 44 |
| Rural | 30 | 67 | 25 |
| Education | |||
| College graduate | 55 | 42 | 42 |
| No college degree | 41 | 55 | 58 |
| Education by race | |||
| White college graduates | 52 | 45 | 36 |
| Non-white college graduates | 70 | 28 | 6 |
| Whites without college | 35 | 61 | 49 |
| Non-whites without college | 73 | 23 | 10 |
| Education by gender and race | |||
| White women with college degrees | 56 | 41 | 19 |
| White women without college degrees | 38 | 58 | 26 |
| White men with college degrees | 49 | 49 | 17 |
| White men without college degrees | 31 | 65 | 23 |
| Voters of color | 72 | 25 | 15 |
| Educational attainment | |||
| Advanced degree | 61 | 38 | 18 |
| Bachelor's degree | 51 | 46 | 24 |
| Associate's degree | 38 | 57 | 15 |
| Some college | 49 | 48 | 25 |
| Never attended college | 33 | 63 | 19 |
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - A subset of poll respondents who said they planned to vote in the Democratic primary
- $9,000,000 of this total was self-funded by Dolan.
- $4,200,000 of this total was self-funded by Moreno.
- $250,000 of this total was self-funded by LaRose.
- Joel Mutchler with 1%
- "Someone else" with 29%; Joel Mutchler with 3%
- Joel Mutchler with 0%
- A subset of poll respondents who said they planned to vote in the Republican primary
- $4,500,838 of this total was self-funded by Moreno.
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
- With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- Kissick (L) with 3%;"Other" with <1%
- Kissick (L) with 2%; "Other" with 1%
- "Did not vote for Senator" with 1%
- "Wouldn't Vote" with 1%
- "Wouldn't Vote" with 1%
- "Another party's candidate" with 1%
- "Won't Vote" with 5%
Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by the Ohio Northern University Institute for Civics and Public Policy
- Poll sponsored by The Center for Election Science
- Poll sponsored by Moreno's campaign
- Poll sponsored by Buckeye Values PAC, which supports Moreno
- Poll sponsored by Leadership for Ohio Fund, which supports LaRose
- Poll sponsored by The Hill
- Poll sponsored by Senate Opportunity Fund, a super PAC that primarily supports Republican candidates in U.S. Senate races
- Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
- Poll sponsored by On Point Politics and Red Eagle Politics, the latter of which supports Republican candidates
- Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA, a conservative group
- Poll sponsored by AARP
- Poll sponsored by American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
- Poll sponsored by WGW-TV
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