A general election to determine the composition of the 55th Parliament of New Zealand is planned to be held on 7 November 2026, following the dissolution or expiry of the currently elected 54th Parliament.
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Voters will elect 120 members to the House of Representatives under New Zealand's mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system, a proportional representation system in which 71 members are elected from single-member electorates and 49 members are elected from closed party lists.
After the previous election, the centre-right National Party, led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, formed a coalition government with the ACT and New Zealand First parties. The main opponent to the National–ACT–NZ First government is the centre-left Labour Party, led by former Prime Minister Chris Hipkins. Other opposition parties include the left-wing Green Party and the indigenous rights-based Te Pāti Māori.
Electoral system
New Zealand uses the mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system to elect the House of Representatives. Each voter gets two votes, one for a political party (the party vote) and one for a local candidate (the electorate vote). Political parties which meet the threshold (5% of the party vote or one electorate seat) receive seats in the House in proportion to the percentage of the party vote they receive. At this election, 71 of the 120 seats will be filled by the MPs elected from the electorates, with the winner in each electorate determined by the first past the post method (i.e. most votes wins). The remaining 49 seats will be filled by candidates from each party's closed party list. If a party wins more electorates than seats it is entitled to under the party vote, an overhang results; in this case, the House will add extra seats to cover the overhang.
The political party or party bloc with the majority of the seats in the House forms the Government. Since the introduction of MMP in 1996, a party has only won an outright majority of seats once, when the Labour Party won 65 out of 120 seats in 2020. As a result, parties typically negotiate with other parties to form a coalition government or a minority government.
Electorate boundaries
Electorate boundaries for the next election are due to be redrawn following the 2023 census. This means that unless a snap election is called before the boundary review, the next general election will be the first to use boundaries based on the 2023 census.
The number of South Island general electorates is fixed at 16, with the number of North Island general electorates and Māori electorates increasing or decreasing in proportion. For the 2020 and 2023 elections, there were 49 North Island general electorates and seven Māori electorates, leaving 48 seats to be elected through party lists. Due to changes in the relative populations between the two islands, Statistics New Zealand announced on 25 October 2024 that there would be 16 South Island electorates, 48 North Island electorates, 7 Māori electorates, and 49 list seats. Redrawn draft boundaries were released for public consultation on 25 March 2025. The draft boundaries proposed the disestablishment of the Ōhāriu, Mana and Ōtaki electorates in Wellington, replacing them with two new electorates, Kenepuru and Kapiti. Meanwhile due to significant boundary changes in New Lynn, Kelston, Te Atatū, Panmure-Ōtāhuhu, and Bay of Plenty, those electorates are proposed to be replaced with new electorates named Waitākere, Glendene, Rānui, Ōtāhuhu, and Mount Maunganui respectively. The majority of objections to the draft boundaries concerned moving Balmoral from Epsom to Mount Albert, moving Ashhurst from Rangitīkei to Wairarapa, and moving Newlands and Woodridge from Ōhāriu to Hutt South.
On 8 August, the electorate boundaries were finalised, with the reconfiguration leading to the creation of new electorates. In western Auckland, the electorates of New Lynn, Kelston and Te Atatū were reconfigured into Waitakere, Glendene and Henderson. In southern Auckland, the electorate of Panmure-Ōtāhuhu becomes Ōtāhuhu after losing the Panmure suburbs. In Bay of Plenty, the electorates of Tauranga and Bay of Plenty are reconfigured, with the Bay of Plenty electorate being re-named Mount Maunganui to reflect the change. In the East Coast, the East Coast electorate was re-named to East Cape.
In the lower North Island, the electorates of Otaki, Mana and Ōhāriu are reconfigured into the Kenepuru and Kapiti electorates. In Wellington, the northward shift of Wellington Central led to the recreation of the Wellington North electorate, while the expansion of Rongotai into the Wellington suburbs led to the formation of the Wellington Bays electorate.
Election date
Unless an early election is called or the election date is set to circumvent holding a by-election, a general election is held every three years. The last election was held on Saturday, 14 October 2023.
The Governor-General must issue writs for an election within seven days of the expiration or dissolution of the current Parliament. Under section 17 of the Constitution Act 1986, Parliament expires three years "from the day fixed for the return of the writs issued for the last preceding general election of members of the House of Representatives, and no longer." The writs for the 2023 election were returned on 9 November 2023. As a result, the 54th Parliament would expire, if not dissolved earlier, on Monday, 9 November 2026. Consequently, the last day for issuance of writs of election would be 16 November 2026. The writs must be returned within 60 days of their issuance (save for any judicial recount or death of a candidate), which would be Friday, 15 January 2027. Because polling day must be a Saturday, and two weeks is generally required for the counting of special votes, the last possible date that this election could be held is Saturday, 19 December 2026.
On 21 January 2026, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced that the election will be held on 7 November 2026. Parliament will dissolve on 1 October and writs will be issued on 4 October with nominations closing at midday on 8 October. Advance voting will begin on 26 October, and the last day for the return of the writ will be 3 December.
Parties and candidates
Since the 2023 election, six parties have been deregistered: DemocracyNZ on 15 February 2024, Leighton Baker Party on 27 May 2024, New Zealand Loyal on 26 July 2024, Democratic Alliance on 27 November 2024, New Nation Party on 29 January 2025, and Freedoms New Zealand on 1 May 2025.
| Party | Leader(s) | Founded | Ideology | 2023 election result | Current seats | Status | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % party vote | seats | |||||||
| National | Christopher Luxon | 1936 | Liberal Conservatism | 38.08% | 48 / 123 | 49 / 123 | Coalition | |
| Labour | Chris Hipkins | 1916 | Social democracy | 26.92% | 34 / 123 | 34 / 123 | Opposition | |
| Green | Marama Davidson Chlöe Swarbrick | 1990 | Green politics Social democracy | 11.61% | 15 / 123 | 15 / 123 | Opposition | |
| ACT | David Seymour | 1994 | Classical liberalism Right-libertarianism Conservatism | 8.64% | 11 / 123 | 11 / 123 | Coalition | |
| NZ First | Winston Peters | 1993 | Nationalism Social conservatism Right-wing populism | 6.09% | 8 / 123 | 8 / 123 | Coalition | |
| Te Pāti Māori | Debbie Ngarewa-Packer Rawiri Waititi | 2004 | Māori rights Tino rangatiratanga | 3.08% | 6 / 123 | 4 / 123 | Opposition | |
| Opportunities | Qiulae Wong | 2016 | Radical centrism | 2.22% | 0 / 123 | 0 / 123 | Extra-parliamentary | |
| NewZeal | Alfred Ngaro | 2020 | Social conservatism Christian democracy | 0.56% | 0 / 123 | 0 / 123 | Extra-parliamentary | |
| Legalise Cannabis | Maki Herbert Michael Appleby | 1996 | Cannabis legalisation | 0.45% | 0 / 123 | 0 / 123 | Extra-parliamentary | |
| Outdoors | Sue Grey | 2015 | Environmentalism Conspiracism Social conservatism | 0.34% | 0 / 123 | 0 / 123 | Extra-parliamentary | |
| Vision NZ | Hannah Tamaki | 2019 | Christian nationalism | 0 / 123 | 0 / 123 | Extra-parliamentary | ||
| Animal Justice | Anna Rippon Robert McNeil | 2023 | Animal rights | 0.17% | 0 / 123 | 0 / 123 | Extra-parliamentary | |
| New Conservatives | Helen Houghton | 2011 | Conservatism Traditionalism | 0.15% | 0 / 123 | 0 / 123 | Extra-parliamentary | |
| Women's Rights | Jill Ovens Chimene Del La Veras | 2023 | Anti-transgender sentiment | 0.08% | 0 / 123 | 0 / 123 | Extra-parliamentary | |
MPs not standing for re-election
Damien O'Connor announced on 26 January 2026 that he would not stand in the West Coast-Tasman electorate again, but whether he will stand elsewhere or go on the list has not been decided yet.
| Name | Party | Electorate/List | Term in office | Date announced | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Webb | Labour | Christchurch Central | 2017–present | 21 October 2025 | |
| Paulo Garcia | National | New Lynn | 2019–2020, 2023–present | 16 December 2025 | |
| Maureen Pugh | National | West Coast-Tasman | 2016–2017, 2018–present | 23 January 2026 | |
| Celia Wade-Brown | Green | List | 2024–present | 28 January 2026 | |
| Judith Collins | National | Papakura | 2002–present | 28 January 2026 | |
MPs standing for re-election as list-only MPs
| Name | Party | Electorate/List | Term in office | Date announced | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Megan Woods | Labour | Wigram | 2011–present | 3 August 2025 | ||
| Nicola Willis | National | List | 2018–present | 22 December 2025 | ||
| Greg O'Connor | Labour | Ōhāriu | 2017–present | 21 January 2026 | Intention to become Speaker of the House of Representatives | |
Campaigning
National Party
In November 2025, the National Party announced that it would gradually raise the default KiwiSaver contribution for employees and employers from 3% to 6% by 2032 if re-elected in 2026. On 21 February, National's conservation spokesperson Tama Potaka announced that the party would campaign on further restricting commercial fishing in the Hauraki Gulf.
Labour Party
In late October 2025, Labour made two policy announcements including the establishment of an economic investment fund called the "NZ Future Fund" and the introduction of a capital gains tax based on property transactions to subsidise doctors' visits. In early November 2025, the party proposed free cervical cancer screenings for all women aged between 25 and 69 years. In mid-November, the party announced that it would repeal the Regulatory Standards Act 2025 within its first 100 days of government if it won the 2026 general election. Prior to the party's annual general meeting, Labour leader Chris Hipkins confirmed that the party would contest all seven Māori electorates, citing the internal conflict within Te Pāti Māori, which holds six of those seats. The party has sought to exploit growing voter disillusionment with the National-led coalition government's handling of cost of living, health, economic and housing issues.
In mid January 2026, Labour proposed a streaming levy on foreign streaming companies like Netflix in order to invest in the New Zealand film industry. In early February 2026, Labour leader Chris Hipkins along with the Greens co-leaders Chlöe Swarbrick and Marama Davidson announced during a press conference at the Waitangi Treaty Grounds that the two parties would work together during the election and in a future government.
Green Party
In May 2025, the Greens released their alternative "Green Budget," which proposed investing $8 billion over the next four years in various green policies including creating a Ministry of Green Works and supporting sustainable infrastructure. Other notable Green Budget policies have included a new wealth tax, higher corporate taxes, a private jet tax, higher mining royalties and income tax rates. In mid November 2025, the Greens confirmed they would revoke all coal, gold and seabed mining consents approved under the incumbent coalition government's Fast-track Approvals Act 2024.
In early February 2026, co-leader Marama Davidson confirmed that the party would be fielding candidates in three of the Māori electorates including list MP Huhana Lyndon, lawyer Tania Waikato and former Te Pāti Māori candidate Heather Te-Au Skipworth.
ACT
On 15 February 2026, the ACT Party held its annual State of the Nation address in Christchurch, where party leader David Seymour stated they would campaign on decreasing government spending, and merging ministerial portfolios. On 19 February, Seymour advocated merging the Ministry for Ethnic Communities, Ministry for Women, Ministry for Pacific Peoples, Office for Seniors, Ministry of Youth Development and Te Puni Kōkiri (Ministry for Māori Development) into the Ministry for Culture and Heritage.
New Zealand First
Despite supporting the passage of the Government's Regulatory Standards Act 2025 into law in mid November 2025, New Zealand First subsequently announced on 20 November that it would repeal the legislation if re-elected into government in 2026. NZ First leader Winston Peters said that the party had only supported the Regulatory Standards Act due to ACT New Zealand's coalition agreement with the National Party.
On 10 February 2026, NZ First deputy leader Shane Jones confirmed the party would campaign on reinstating ministerial powers in approving fast-track projects during the 2026 election. On 12 February, the party confirmed it would campaign for a referendum on the future of the Māori electorates.
Te Pāti Māori
In February 2025, Te Pāti Māori proposed the creation of a Parliamentary Commissioner for Te Tiriti o Waitangi, who would have extraordinary powers to audit and veto bills that did not comply with the Treaty. The party described the policy as a "bottomline" in any coalition negotiations. In April 2025, Te Pāti Māori announced plans to run candidates in the general seats at the 2026 general election.
In January 2026, the party stated they will campaign on abolishing prisons by 2040 to address the high Māori incarceration rate, replacing them with "community-led and community-based solutions".
The Opportunity Party
The Opportunity Party has announced it would campaign with several policies, including reducing house prices through a land value tax, and introducing a "Citizen's Voice", consisting of citizens' assemblies for certain major issues. In mid-February 2026, party leader Qiulae Wong announced that Opportunity would campaign on replacing all forms of welfare assistance including superannuation with a means-tested "citizen's income." Unlike universal basic income, people earning more than NZ$350,000 a year would not be able to access it. The citizen's income policy would be funded by a land value tax, and savings from the benefits that would be replaced. On 16 February, the party's general manager Iain Lees-Galloway announced that the party would field about 30 candidates during the 2026 election with the goal of reaching the five percent threshold for the party needed to enter Parliament. During the party's State of the Nation address in Auckland on 21 February, Wong announced that the Opportunity Party would campaign on promoting national unity, banning bottom trawling and investing in renewal energy.
Opinion polling
Seat projections
The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom and Tāmaki, Greens retain Auckland Central, Rongotai and Wellington Central, Te Pāti Māori retains all six of their Māori electorates, etc). However, projections that show the National Party winning fewer than 44 total seats (44 being the number of electorate seats currently held by National) assume that National will lose at least enough electorates to avoid an overhang. Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.
When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.
| Source | Seats in parliament | Likely government formation | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAT | LAB | GRN | ACT | NZF | TPM | Total | ||
| The Post/Freshwater Strategy 6–12 Feb 2026 poll | 38 | 46 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 4** | 122 | Labour–Greens–Māori (63) |
| 1 News–Verian 7–11 Feb 2026 poll | 42 | 39 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 4** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (65) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1–3 Feb 2026 poll | 39 | 43 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 120 | Hung parliament |
| Roy Morgan 6–26 Jan 2026 poll | 43 | 38 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| RNZ–Reid Research 15–22 Jan 2026 poll | 40 | 43 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (61) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 14–18 Jan 2026 poll | 39 | 43 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 4 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan 25 Nov – 21 Dec 2025 poll | 41 | 40 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 4* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| The Post/Freshwater Strategy 5–10 Dec 2025 poll | 38 | 48 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 4* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| 1 News–Verian 29 Nov–3 Dec 2025 poll | 44 | 43 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 4*** | 123 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Roy Morgan 27 Oct – 23 Nov 2025 poll | 42 | 36 | 18 | 10 | 11 | 4* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Talbot Mills 1–10 Nov 2025 poll | 40 | 47 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 4* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 2–6 Nov 2025 poll | 39 | 42 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Roy Morgan 29 Sep – 26 Oct 2025 poll | 41 | 39 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 6*** | 123 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Talbot Mills 1–10 Oct 2025 poll | 35 | 43 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| 1 News–Verian 4–8 Oct 2025 poll | 42 | 40 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 6*** | 123 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| The Post/Freshwater Strategy 3–8 Oct 2025 poll | 38 | 42 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1–5 Oct 2025 poll | 38 | 40 | 15 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Roy Morgan 25 Aug – 21 Sep 2025 poll | 39 | 36 | 17 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 120 | Hung parliament |
| RNZ–Reid Research 4–12 Sep 2025 poll | 40 | 42 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Talbot Mills 1–10 Sep 2025 poll | 39 | 43 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 31 Aug – 2 Sep 2025 poll | 42 | 42 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Roy Morgan 28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025 poll | 36 | 42 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 6*** | 123 | Labour–Greens–Māori (65) |
| Talbot Mills 1–10 Aug 2025 poll | 39 | 42 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| 1 News–Verian 2–6 Aug 2025 poll | 42 | 40 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 3–5 Aug 2025 poll | 40 | 43 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 6** | 122 | Hung parliament |
| Roy Morgan 30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025 poll | 38 | 39 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Talbot Mills 1–10 Jul 2025 poll | 39 | 42 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 2–6 Jul 2025 poll | 42 | 39 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (65) |
| Roy Morgan 26 May – 22 Jun 2025 poll | 40 | 37 | 14 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 7–9 Jun 2025 poll | 42 | 44 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| RNZ–Reid Research 23–30 May 2025 poll | 38 | 42 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (63) |
| 1 News–Verian 24–28 May 2025 poll | 43 | 37 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan 28 Apr – 25 May 2025 poll | 40 | 37 | 14 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 30 Apr – 4 May 2025 poll | 42 | 41 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan 24 Mar – 20 Apr 2025 poll | 39 | 36 | 17 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (61) |
| 1 News–Verian 29 Mar – 2 Apr 2025 poll | 44 | 40 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 29 Mar – 1 Apr 2025 poll | 42 | 37 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| RNZ–Reid Research 21–27 Mar 2025 poll | 41 | 40 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Roy Morgan 24 Feb – 23 Mar 2025 poll | 41 | 35 | 18 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 120 | Hung parliament |
| Talbot Mills 1–10 Mar 2025 poll | 39 | 43 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 2–4 Mar 2025 poll | 42 | 42 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| Roy Morgan 27 Jan – 23 Feb 2025 poll | 38 | 36 | 20 | 14 | 8 | 6** | 122 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| 1 News–Verian 3–7 Feb 2025 poll | 43 | 42 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 2–4 Feb 2025 poll | 39 | 39 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Talbot Mills 7–27 Jan 2025 poll | 40 | 42 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (63) |
| Roy Morgan 2–26 Jan 2025 poll | 40 | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 9–13 Jan 2025 poll | 38 | 39 | 12 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Roy Morgan 25 Nov – 15 Dec 2024 poll | 39 | 32 | 17 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| 1 News–Verian 30 Nov – 4 Dec 2024 poll | 46 | 36 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1–3 Dec 2024 poll | 44 | 34 | 11 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 120 | National–ACT (61) |
| Labour–Talbot Mills 22–28 Nov 2024 poll | 39 | 40 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| The Post/Freshwater Strategy 26–27 Nov 2024 poll | 42 | 39 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Roy Morgan 28 Oct – 24 Nov 2024 poll | 37 | 36 | 17 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 6–10 Nov 2024 poll | 48 | 39 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 6*** | 123 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Talbot Mills 1–10 Nov 2024 poll | 42 | 41 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan 23 Sep – 20 Oct 2024 poll | 39 | 37 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| 1 News–Verian 5–9 Oct 2024 poll | 47 | 37 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 3–7 Oct 2024 poll | 44 | 38 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (65) |
| Roy Morgan 26 Aug – 22 Sep 2024 poll | 47 | 29 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (69) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 8–10 Sep 2024 poll | 48 | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Talbot Mills 1–10 Sep 2024 poll | 46 | 39 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Roy Morgan 29 Jul – 25 Aug 2024 poll | 45 | 33 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| 1 News–Verian 10–14 Aug 2024 poll | 49 | 38 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Roy Morgan 24 Jun – 21 Jul 2024 poll | 41 | 31 | 18 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 4–8 Jul 2024 poll | 47 | 33 | 16 | 11 | 9 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Roy Morgan 27 May – 23 Jun 2024 poll | 44 | 35 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| 1 News–Verian 15–19 Jun 2024 poll | 47 | 36 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 4–6 Jun 2024 poll | 44 | 36 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan 22 Apr – 19 May 2024 poll | 42 | 38 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 6** | 122 | Hung parliament |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 5–7 May 2024 poll | 47 | 37 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Talbot Mills 30 Apr 2024 poll | 42 | 41 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| 1 News–Verian 20–24 Apr 2024 poll | 48 | 40 | 18 | 9 | 0 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (64) |
| Roy Morgan 25 Mar – 21 Apr 2024 poll | 45 | 31 | 16 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 2–4 Apr 2024 poll | 47 | 32 | 18 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Roy Morgan 29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024 poll | 45 | 27 | 19 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (69) |
| Talbot Mills 1–10 Feb 2024 poll | 47 | 35 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1–7 Feb 2024 poll | 49 | 34 | 11 | 17 | 6 | 6*** | 123 | National–ACT (66) |
| Roy Morgan 8–28 Jan 2024 poll | 49 | 28 | 20 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Roy Morgan Dec 2023 poll | 46 | 28 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 8** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Curia 3–5 Dec 2023 poll | 46 | 36 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT-NZ First (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1–6 Nov 2023 poll | 46 | 35 | 17 | 10 | 8 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| 2023 election result 14 Oct 2023 | 48 | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
- * indicates an overhang seat
- Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.
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