This article lists EU-wide seat projections and popular vote estimates as well as national polls for the 2029 European Parliament election.
Seat projections
This table lists the seat projections for the political groups of the European Parliament. The projections can be based on an aggregation of national european election polls, national election polls and election results from all member states.
361 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority
| Organisation | Release date | Ref. | The Left | S&D | G/EFA | Renew | EPP | ECR | PfE | ESN | NI | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Der Föderalist | 13 Nov 2025 | 51 | 124 | 37 | 71 | 175 | 81 | 105 | 39 | 24 | 13 | 51 | |
| Europe Elects | 27 Sep 2025 | 60 | 126 | 37 | 74 | 179 | 86 | 100 | 38 | 18 | 2 | 53 | |
| Der Föderalist | 1 Sep 2025 | 55 | 123 | 40 | 66 | 176 | 85 | 105 | 37 | 21 | 12 | 53 | |
| Europe Elects | 31 Aug 2025 | 60 | 125 | 38 | 76 | 180 | 83 | 98 | 37 | 21 | 2 | 55 | |
| Europe Elects | 25 Jul 2025 | 60 | 127 | 36 | 77 | 180 | 83 | 98 | 36 | 21 | 2 | 53 | |
| Der Föderalist | 1 Jul 2025 | 51 | 124 | 44 | 73 | 181 | 80 | 99 | 36 | 20 | 12 | 57 | |
| Europe Elects | 25 Jun 2025 | 58 | 130 | 36 | 78 | 183 | 81 | 96 | 35 | 21 | 2 | 53 | |
| Der Föderalist | 22 May 2025 | 49 | 130 | 40 | 76 | 179 | 79 | 100 | 35 | 23 | 9 | 49 | |
| Europe Elects | 25 Apr 2025 | 58 | 130 | 33 | 79 | 176 | 79 | 102 | 37 | 24 | 2 | 46 | |
| Europe Elects | 29 Mar 2025 | 55 | 129 | 33 | 85 | 175 | 78 | 103 | 33 | 25 | 4 | 46 | |
| Der Föderalist | 27 Mar 2025 | 52 | 131 | 41 | 73 | 177 | 79 | 99 | 33 | 24 | 11 | 46 | |
| Europe Elects | 28 Feb 2025 | 54 | 131 | 34 | 85 | 174 | 79 | 104 | 31 | 24 | 4 | 43 | |
| Der Föderalist | 30 Jan 2025 | 48 | 130 | 43 | 81 | 185 | 77 | 93 | 29 | 24 | 10 | 55 | |
| Europe Elects | 25 Jan 2025 | 49 | 131 | 36 | 85 | 177 | 81 | 104 | 29 | 22 | 6 | 46 | |
| Europe Elects | 24 Dec 2024 | 49 | 131 | 37 | 84 | 179 | 76 | 104 | 29 | 25 | 6 | 48 | |
| Der Föderalist | 2 Dec 2024 | 43 | 131 | 41 | 83 | 186 | 73 | 100 | 27 | 24 | 12 | 55 | |
| Europe Elects | 30 Nov 2024 | 53 | 134 | 36 | 81 | 183 | 77 | 100 | 29 | 24 | 3 | 49 | |
| Europe Elects | 31 Oct 2024 | 52 | 137 | 34 | 82 | 183 | 76 | 98 | 28 | 28 | 2 | 46 | |
| Der Föderalist | 7 Oct 2024 | 44 | 136 | 41 | 79 | 186 | 74 | 96 | 26 | 29 | 9 | 50 | |
| Europe Elects | 30 Sep 2024 | 46 | 141 | 40 | 73 | 185 | 82 | 93 | 27 | 31 | 2 | 44 | |
| Europe Elects | 31 Aug 2024 | 45 | 140 | 44 | 72 | 186 | 80 | 92 | 26 | 32 | 3 | 46 | |
| Der Föderalist | 12 Aug 2024 | 44 | 137 | 45 | 77 | 191 | 73 | 88 | 25 | 31 | 9 | 54 | |
| 2024 European Parliament election | 6–9 June 2024 | 46 | 136 | 53 | 77 | 188 | 78 | 84 | 25 | 33 | – | 52 |
Popular vote projections
This table lists the vote share projection for the political groups of the European Parliament. The projections can be based on an aggregation of national european election polls, national election polls and election results from all member states.
| Organisation | Release date | Ref. | The Left | S&D | G/EFA | Renew | EPP | ECR | PfE | ESN | NI | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe Elects | 25 Jun 2025 | 10.4% | 17.2% | 6.6% | 9.9% | 22.4% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 5.2% | |
| Europe Elects | 25 Apr 2025 | 10.3% | 17.3% | 6.3% | 10.3% | 21.5% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 2% | 4.2% | |
| Europe Elects | 29 Mar 2025 | 9.7% | 17.3% | 6.2% | 10.7% | 21.7% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 4.4% | |
| Europe Elects | 28 Feb 2025 | 9.3% | 17.7% | 6.2% | 10.8% | 21.9% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.2% | |
| Europe Elects | 25 Jan 2025 | 8.3% | 17.6% | 6.7% | 10.8% | 22.7% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 5.1% | |
| Europe Elects | 24 Dec 2024 | 8.1% | 17.6% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 23.0% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 5.4% | |
| Europe Elects | 30 Nov 2024 | 8.7% | 18.1% | 6.5% | 10.2% | 23.7% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 5.6% | |
| Europe Elects | 31 Oct 2024 | 8.5% | 18.3% | 6.4% | 10.5% | 23.4% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 5.1% | 4% | 2.9% | 5.1% | |
| Europe Elects | 30 Sep 2024 | 8.1% | 18.9% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 23.6% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.7% | |
| Europe Elects | 31 Aug 2024 | 6.7% | 17.7% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 22.8% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 7.8% | 5.1% | |
| 2024 European Parliament election | 6–9 June 2024 | 6.74% | 18.82% | 8.88% | 10.68% | 20.80% | 12.22% | 9.36% | Did not exist | 9.07% | 3.43% | 1.98% |
Notes
- Seats for national parties that are not represented in the European Parliament and do not belong to any European party.
- Vote share for national parties that are not represented in the European Parliament and do not belong to any European party.
- As Identity and Democracy group in the 2024 election.
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