Opinion polling for the 2005 New Zealand general election

Opinion polling was commissioned throughout the duration of the 47th New Zealand Parliament and in the lead up to the 2005 election by various organisations.

Party vote and key events in the leadup to the 2005 election

Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.

Graphical summary

Local regression of polls conducted

Individual polls

Poll Date Labour National NZ First ACT Green United
Future
Māori Destiny
2002 election result 27 Jul 2002 41.26 20.93 10.38 7.14 7.00 6.69 N/A
One News Colmar Brunton 1 Sep 2002 40 25 10 6 7 8
TV3 NFO 16 – 22 Sep 2002 49 19 10 5 8 4.7
NBR-HP Invent 19 – 22 Sep 2002 44 22 9.5 8.5 5.9
One News Colmar Brunton 23 – 26 Sep 2002 47 26 8 5 6 4
One News Colmar Brunton 27 Oct 2002 51 25 7 5 5 5
NBR-HP Invent 18 – 20 Oct 2002 47 24 9.1 4.9 7.5 4.7
TV3 NFO 18 – 24 Nov 2002 50 19 10 4.8 8 5
One News Colmar Brunton 18 Nov 2002 49 26 8 6 5 2.9
One News Colmar Brunton 15 Dec 2002 52 25 6 5 5 4
Herald-DigiPoll 3 Feb 2003 49.6 22.9 7.2 5.9 5.1 3.3
TV3 NFO 10 – 16 Feb 2003 56 21 6 4.2 6 3.6
One News Colmar Brunton 17 Feb 2003 53 27 5 6 6 2
One News Colmar Brunton 23 Mar 2003 51 28 6 6 5 2.9
TV3 NFO 7 – 13 Apr 2003 53 26 5 4.9 6 2.4
One News Colmar Brunton 13 Apr 2003 52 26 6 5 5 2
Herald-DigiPoll 15–18 May 2003 49.4 28 8 5.6 5.3 1.8
One News Colmar Brunton 12 – 15 May 2003 50 28 7 6 3 2
TV3 NFO 9 – 16 Jun 2003 52 24 8 4.5 6 2.9
One News Colmar Brunton 16 Jun 2003 54 28 4
13 Jun 2003 – Destiny New Zealand is formed.
Herald-DigiPoll Jul 2003 48.2 27.2 9.2 4.8 5.1 3.4
One News Colmar Brunton 13 Jul 2003 51 28 7 6 4 1.1
Herald-DigiPoll 12 – 17 Aug 2003 47.7 26.8 9.7 4.4 5 4.2
TV3 NFO 12 Aug 2003 52 23 9 5 6 2.7
One News Colmar Brunton 17 Aug 2003 47 27 8 6 5 2.6
One News Colmar Brunton 15 Sep 2003 45 29 8 5 7 3.4
Herald-DigiPoll 15 Oct 2003 43.3 22.3 12.3 6.2 9.2 2.7
TV3 NFO 6 Oct 2003 46 24 10 6 8 2.9
One News Colmar Brunton 14 Oct 2003 45 27 8 6 7 2.8
28 Oct 2003 – Don Brash is elected leader of the National Party.
One News Colmar Brunton 9 Nov 2003 45 31 8 4 7 2.2
One News Colmar Brunton 14 Dec 2003 45 28 11 6 4 2.1
27 Jan 2004 – Don Brash delivers his Orewa Speech.
Herald-DigiPoll 23 Feb 2004 37 45.5 5.6 2.3 5.3 1.4
3 News TNS 5 Feb 2004 43 32 8 4.2 8 2.4
One News Colmar Brunton 29 Jan – 4 Feb 2004 38 45 6 1.3 5 1.8
3 News TNS 27 – 29 Feb 2004 39 42 6 2.4 6 0.9
One News Colmar Brunton 22 Mar 2004 39 49 4 2 2.2 1.7
3 News TNS 25 – 31 Mar 2004 42 42 5 1.3 4.6 2.1
One News Colmar Brunton 25 Apr 2004 37 48 5 1.6 5 1.9
One News Colmar Brunton 17 – 20 May 2004 37 47 5 3 4 1.4
Herald-DigiPoll 27 May – 1 Jun 2004 36 44 5.6 2 4.7 2.4
3 News TNS 27 May – 3 Jun 2004 43 40 5 2 4.6 2.3
13 Jun 2004 – Rodney Hide replaces Richard Prebble as leader of ACT New Zealand.
One News Colmar Brunton 21 Jun 2004 40 44 2.7 2.3 5 2.2
One News Colmar Brunton 5 – 8 Jul 2004 39 43 5 2.7 4 2.2
7 Jul 2004 – The Māori Party is formed.
3 News TNS 31 Jul 2004 44 39 5 2.6 4.7 1.8 0.9
Sunday Star-Times/BRC 1 Aug 2004 44 39 3 3
One News Colmar Brunton 9 – 12 Aug 2004 44 40 4 1.6 4 1.5
One News Colmar Brunton 13 Sep 2004 42 42 5 2.5 4 1.7
Herald-DigiPoll 28 Sep 2004 40.8 36 5 1 3.6 2.6 1.5
3 News TNS 30 Sep – 6 Oct 2004 45 33 5 3.3 5.2 2.8
One News Colmar Brunton 14 Oct 2004 44 39 5 3.1 4 2.2
One News Colmar Brunton 15 Nov 2004 44 38 5 3.3 4 2.5
Herald-DigiPoll 19 – 27 Nov 2004 50.1 30.4 5.7 2.5 5.4 2.3 1.9
3 News TNS 25 Nov – 1 Dec 2004 46 32 7 2.8 5.1 2.3 2.6
One News Colmar Brunton 13 Dec 2004 47 35 5 2.8 5 1.4
Herald-DigiPoll 1 Feb 2005 44.8 35.3 4.7 1.6 6.9 3 1.5
3 News TNS 4 Feb 2005 46 38 5 2.1 4.7 1.4 1.7
One News Colmar Brunton 14 Feb 2005 44 39 5 2 4 1 2
One News Colmar Brunton 14 – 17 Mar 2005 46 35 5 3 5 1 1
Herald-DigiPoll 22 – 30 Mar 2005 47.7 34.5
3 News TNS 15 Apr 2005 45 34 8
One News Colmar Brunton 17 Apr 2005 45 38 7 3 4 1 1
One News Colmar Brunton 16 May 2005 44 37 8 2 4 1 2
3 News TNS 9 – 16 Jun 2005 40 36 11 1.5 6
Fairfax Media–Nielsen 18 Jun 2005 40 38 8 2 5 2 2
One News Colmar Brunton 19 Jun 2005 41 43 7 2 3 1 2
One News Colmar Brunton 18 Jul 2005 39 42 7 1 6 1 2
3 News TNS 21 – 27 Jul 2005 39 39 7 1.6 6 1.4 2.2
Roy Morgan Research 21 Jul – 1 Aug 2005 38 38 10 1.5 6 2
One News Colmar Brunton 1–4 Aug 2005 45 41 5 2 3 1 1
Roy Morgan Research 2–15 Aug 2005 40 36.5 8 2.5 7.5 2
One News Colmar Brunton 15–18 Aug 2005 45 37 6 2 6 1 1 1
One News Colmar Brunton 22–25 Aug 2005 43 40 5 2 7 1 1 1
3 News TNS 25 – 30 Aug 2005 39 41 6 1.4 6 1.7 1.7
One News Colmar Brunton 29 Aug – 1 Sep 2005 38 46 5 1 6 1 2 1
Roy Morgan Research 3 – 13 Sep 2005 38.5 37 6.5 3 7.5 2.5 1.5
One News Colmar Brunton 5–8 Sep 2005 39 41 6 3 6 2 1 1
3 News TNS 8 – 14 Sep 2005 40.5 38.7 6.8 0.9 6.9 3.0 1.4
Herald-DigiPoll 9 – 14 Sep 2005 44.6 37.4 4.5 1.3 4.6 2.6 2.3
One News Colmar Brunton 12 – 14 Sep 2005 38 44 6 1.9 5 2.5 1.7
Fairfax Media–Nielsen 13 Sep 2005 37 43 7 1 6 3 1
2005 election result 17 Sep 2005 41.1 39.1 5.7 1.5 5.3 2.7 2.1 0.6
Poll Date Labour National NZ First ACT Green United
Future
Māori Destiny
  1. The Māori Party and Destiny New Zealand were formed in 2004 and 2003, so did not contest the 2002 election

See also

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