2020 United States Senate election in Kansas

The 2020 United States Senate election in Kansas was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Kansas, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

2020 United States Senate election in Kansas

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November 3, 2020
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Nominee Roger Marshall Barbara Bollier
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 727,962 571,530
Percentage 53.22% 41.79%

Marshall:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Bollier:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data

U.S. senator before election

Pat Roberts
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Roger Marshall
Republican

On January 4, 2019, incumbent Republican Senator Pat Roberts announced he would not run for a fifth term. Candidates had until June 1, 2020 to file to run for the open seat, or to drop out if they had already filed. The U.S. Senate primaries were held on August 4, 2020.

Republican U.S. Representative Roger Marshall was considered a narrow favorite based on polling, but he won by around 11 points, a larger margin than most experts predicted. However, this was the first Senate election since 1978 where a Democrat won Shawnee County, the first Senate election since 1974 where a Democrat won Riley County, and the first Senate election ever in Kansas's history where a Democrat won Johnson County; all three counties were also flipped by Democrat Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Roger Marshall, incumbent U.S. representative for Kansas's 1st congressional district

Eliminated in primary

  • Lance Berland
  • John L. Berman, engineer
  • Derek Ellis, quality assurance technician
  • Bob Hamilton, businessman
  • Kris Kobach, former secretary of state of Kansas and Republican nominee for governor of Kansas in 2018
  • Dave Lindstrom, board chairman for the Kansas Turnpike Authority, former Kansas City Chiefs player, Republican nominee for lieutenant governor of Kansas in 2002
  • Brian Matlock, economics graduate student
  • John Miller
  • Steve Roberts, member of the Kansas Board of Education
  • Gabriel Mark Robles

Withdrawn

  • Jake LaTurner, Kansas State Treasurer (running for U.S. House in District 2)
  • Bryan Pruitt, conservative commentator
  • Susan Wagle, president of the Kansas Senate

Declined

  • Alan Cobb, president of the Kansas Chamber of Commerce
  • Jeff Colyer, former governor of Kansas and lieutenant governor of Kansas (endorsed Roger Marshall)
  • Ron Estes, incumbent U.S. representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district and former Kansas State Treasurer (running for reelection)
  • Wink Hartman, oilman and restaurant owner, nominee for lieutenant governor of Kansas in 2018
  • Ajit Pai, chairman of the Federal Communications Commission
  • Mike Pompeo, United States Secretary of State, former director of the Central Intelligence Agency, and former U.S. representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district
  • Pat Roberts, incumbent U.S. senator (endorsed Roger Marshall)
  • Matt Schlapp, incumbent chairman of the American Conservative Union and former director of the Office of Political Affairs
  • Derek Schmidt, Kansas Attorney General
  • Scott Schwab, Kansas Secretary of State

Primary debate

In a live-streamed debate on May 22, 2020, in a ballroom devoid of spectators due to the COVID-19 pandemic, all five major candidates praised president Donald Trump. Kobach took on his opponents who all agreed that he could not win the general election against presumptive Democratic nominee, Bollier. Marshall said, "We cannot afford to send a failed candidate back this fall who will lose to Barbara Bollier and hand the Senate majority over to Chuck Schumer." "Instead, we need to send a tried and trusted friend of President Trump." Referring to Marshall, Kobach replied, "Do you want a go-along-to-get-along kind of senator, a gutless wonder who never takes a stand, or, do you want someone who poses a threat?" Hamilton said voters didn't have to choose between Kobach, who couldn't win, and a moderate Marshall, in whose behest the state party leaders had urged Senator Wagle and Lindstrom, to drop out of the race. Objecting to the party pressure, Lindstrom characterized his opponents as "shortsighted, self-serving ... career politicians who are divisive, controversial," and, "have a record of losing elections." Wagle touted her own candidacy, saying, "It's very, very important that we send a leader to the U.S. Senate who is articulate, who is persuasive, who other people respect. ... I'm the one who's already debated Barbara Bollier. ... I win on the Senate floor. I've beat (sic) her numerous times ... the conservative voice that can beat that liberal voice in the U.S. Senate," she said. In response to a claim that he would not prioritize the issue of agriculture, Marshall said, "Fake news and another lie by Kris Kobach."

Endorsements

Kris Kobach

Organizations

  • America First Media
  • Gun Owners of America
  • Kansas Operation Rescue
  • National Association for Gun Rights
  • National Border Patrol Council
  • Open Up Kansas Coalition

Individuals

  • David Barton, former Texas Republican Party vice chair
  • Ann Coulter, Fox News correspondent, conservative commentator and lawyer
  • James Dobson, Focus on the Family founder
  • Peter Thiel, entrepreneur and venture capitalist
Roger Marshall

Federal officials

Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bob
Hamilton
Kris
Kobach
Dave
Lindstrom
Roger
Marshall
Susan
Wagle
Other Undecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 30 – June 1, 2020 419 (LV) 15% 35% 4% 26% 4% 16%
May 28, 2020 Wagle withdraws from the race
Public Opinion Strategies (R) May 10–12, 2020 600 (V) ±  4% 6% 26% 4% 33% 7% 24%
March 30, 2020 Hamilton announces his candidacy
McLaughlin & Associates (R) February 12–16, 2020 300 (LV) ± 5.6% 2% 40% 5% 23% 8% 21%
co/efficient (R) January 19–20, 2020 1,246 LV ± 3.2% 29% 29% 6% 9% 28%
The Tarrance Group (R) October 21–23, 2019 607 (LV) ± 4.1% 43% 3% 24% 8% 5% 16%
Hypothetical polling

with only Kris Kobach and Roger Marshall

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kris Kobach Roger Marshall
Public Opinion Strategies (R) May 10–12, 2020 600 (V) ± 4% 34% 48%

with only Bob Hamilton, Kris Kobach and Roger Marshall

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bob Hamilton Kris Kobach Roger Marshall
Public Opinion Strategies (R) May 10–12, 2020 600 (V) ± 4% 10% 29% 41%

with Mike Pompeo and Susan Wagle

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kris Kobach Roger Marshall Mike Pompeo Other Undecided
NRSC October 21–23, 2019 607 (LV) ± 4.1% 17% 11% 54% 7% 10%

with only Kris Kobach and Mike Pompeo

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kris Kobach Mike Pompeo
NRSC October 21–23, 2019 607 (LV) ± 4.1% 24% 68%

Results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Roger Marshall 167,800 40.28%
Republican Kris Kobach 108,726 26.10%
Republican Bob Hamilton 77,952 18.71%
Republican Dave Lindstrom 27,451 6.59%
Republican Steve Roberts 8,141 1.95%
Republican Brian Matlock 7,083 1.70%
Republican Lance Berland 6,404 1.54%
Republican John Miller 4,431 1.06%
Republican Derek Ellis 3,970 0.95%
Republican Gabriel Robles 3,744 0.90%
Republican John Berman 861 0.21%
Total votes 416,563 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Barbara Bollier, physician and state senator

Eliminated in primary

  • Robert Tillman, Kansas National Guard veteran and perennial candidate

Withdrawn

  • Elliot Adams, database developer
  • Nancy Boyda, former U.S. representative from Kansas's 2nd congressional district (endorsed Bollier)
  • Corbie Crow, certified public accountant
  • Barry Grissom, former United States Attorney for the District of Kansas (endorsed Bollier)
  • Usha Reddi, mayor of Manhattan
  • Adam Smith

Declined

  • Paul Davis, former minority leader of the Kansas House of Representatives, nominee for governor in 2014 and KS-02 in 2018
  • Kathleen Sebelius, former Secretary of Health and Human Services, former governor of Kansas, and former Kansas Insurance Commissioner
  • Sarah Smarsh, author
  • Josh Svaty, former Kansas Secretary of Agriculture, former state representative, and candidate for governor of Kansas in 2018
  • Brent Welder, candidate for Kansas's 3rd congressional district in 2018

Endorsements

Barbara Bollier

U.S. senators

  • Chuck Schumer, U.S. senator (NY) and Senate Minority Leader

Federal officials

  • Nancy Boyda, former U.S. representative (KS-02)

State politicians

Former U.S. executive branch officials

  • Barry Grissom, former U.S. attorney for Kansas (2010-2016)

State legislators

  • Stacey Abrams, former Georgia House of Representatives minority leader (2011-2017) and Democratic nominee in 2018 Georgia gubernatorial election

Organizations

  • DSCC
  • Emily's List
  • End Citizens United
  • Feminist Majority PAC
  • Giffords
  • Human Rights Campaign
  • League of Conservation Voters
  • NARAL Pro-Choice America
  • Planned Parenthood
  • Sierra Club
  • Women's Political Committee

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Barbara Bollier 168,759 85.34%
Democratic Robert Tillman 28,997 14.66%
Total votes 197,756 100.00%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee

  • Jason Buckley, U.S. Navy veteran

Independents

Withdrawn

  • Paul Tuten

General election

Post-primary endorsements

Roger Marshall (R)

Federal officials

  • Sheila Frahm, former lieutenant governor of Kansas (1985–1996) and former U.S. senator from Kansas (1996)
Barbara Bollier (D)

Federal officials

  • Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. senator (NY)
  • Nancy Kassebaum, former U.S. senator (KS) (Republican)

State and local officials

  • Barbara Allen, former Republican Kansas state senator
  • Pat Colloton, former Republican Kansas state representative
  • Linda Gallagher, former Republican Kansas state representative
  • Laura Kelly, governor of Kansas (2019–present)
  • Jan Kessinger, Republican Kansas state representative
  • Audrey Langworthy, former Republican Kansas state senator
  • Patty Markley, former Republican Kansas state representative
  • Tim Owens, former Republican Kansas state senator
  • Jill Quigley, former Republican Kansas state representative
  • Gary Sherrer, former Republican lieutenant governor of Kansas (1996–2003)
  • John Skubal, Republican Kansas state senator
  • Sheryl Spalding, former Republican Kansas state representative
  • John Vratil, former Republican Kansas state senator and former Senate vice president
  • Ron Worley, former Republican Kansas state representative
  • Jim Yonally, former Republican Kansas state representative

Organizations

  • 314 Action
  • Brady Campaign
  • Council for a Livable World
  • Everytown for Gun Safety
  • Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund
  • Rachel's Action Network

Unions

  • AFL–CIO Kansas
  • National Education Association
  • United Auto Workers

Newspapers and publications

  • The Kansas City Star
  • The Wichita Eagle

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report Lean R October 29, 2020
Inside Elections Tilt R October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean R November 2, 2020
Daily Kos Lean R October 30, 2020
Politico Lean R November 2, 2020
RCP Lean R October 23, 2020
DDHQ Lean R November 3, 2020
538 Likely R November 2, 2020
Economist Lean R November 2, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

%support01020304050603/19/20197/23/20209/14/202010/27/2020BollierMarshallBuckleyOther/UndecidedOpinion polling for the 2020 United States S...
View source data.
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Roger
Marshall (R)
Barbara
Bollier (D)
Jason
Buckley (L)
Other Undecided
Data For Progress October 27 – November 1, 2020 1,121 (LV) ± 2.9% 51% 45% 4% 1%
VCreek/AMG October 25–27, 2020 1,149 (LV) ± 3.8% 47% 43% 2% 8%
GBAO Strategies (D) October 25–27, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 45% 46% 4% 4%
47% 47%
Public Policy Polling (D) October 19–20, 2020 897 (V) ± 3.3% 43% 43% 5% 9%
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 18–20, 2020 755 (LV) ± 4% 46% 42% 4% 2% 6%
co/efficient (R) October 18–20, 2020 2,453 (LV) ± 3.7% 51% 39% 2% 8%
VCreek/AMG (R) September 29–30, 2020 3,104 (LV) ± 1.75% 42% 45% 2% 11%
Civiqs/Daily Kos September 26–29, 2020 677 (LV) ± 4.5% 50% 43% 2% 5%
GBAO Strategies (D) September 24–27, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 43% 45% 7%
Data For Progress (D) September 14–19, 2020 883 (LV) ± 3.3% 40% 40% 5% 15%
42% 42% 15%
co/efficient (R) September 15–16, 2020 794 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 39% 2% 16%
SurveyUSA August 8–9, 2020 1,202 (LV) ± 3.3% 46% 44% 10%
Public Policy Polling (D) August 5–6, 2020 864 (V) ± 3.3% 43% 42% 15%
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 30 – June 1, 2020 699 (RV) ± 4.2% 42% 41% 9% 8%
NMB Research (R) May 17–19, 2020 506 (LV) ± 4.5% 46% 35% 18%
Public Policy Polling March 10–11, 2020 1,567 (V) ± 2.5% 47% 37%
Hypothetical polling

Bob Hamilton vs. Barbara Bollier

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bob
Hamilton (R)
Barbara
Bollier (D)
Other Undecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 30 – June 1, 2020 699 (RV) ± 4.2% 40% 41% 11% 8%

Kris Kobach vs. Barbara Bollier

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kris
Kobach (R)
Barbara
Bollier (D)
Other Undecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 30 – June 1, 2020 699 (RV) ± 4.2% 41% 42% 11% 7%
NMB Research/NRSC (R) May 17–19, 2020 506 (LV) ± 4.5% 44% 43% 12%
Public Policy Polling (D) April 13–14, 2020 1,271 (RV) ± 2.7% 42% 44% 13%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) February 12–13, 2020 300 (LV) ± 5.6% 47% 38% 15%
DFM Research January 30 – February 6, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 43% 43% 4% 10%

Kris Kobach vs. Barry Grissom

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kris
Kobach (R)
Barry
Grissom (D)
Undecided
Tarrance Group/NRSC (R) June 9–11, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4% 42% 52%

Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican (R)
Generic
Democrat (D)
Undecided
co/efficient/Keep Kansas Great PAC September 15–16, 2020 794 (LV) ± 3.5% 53% 39%
Public Policy Polling (D) April 13–14, 2020 1,271 (RV) ± 2.7% 50% 40% 11%
DFM Research/SMART Transportation Division January 30 – February 6, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 39% 31% 30%
Tarrance Group/NRSC (R) June 9–11, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 36%

Results

On the night of the election, Roger Marshall was announced as the winner of the Senate race.

United States Senate election in Kansas, 2020
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Roger Marshall 727,962 53.22% +0.07%
Democratic Barbara Bollier 571,530 41.79% N/A
Libertarian Jason Buckley 68,263 4.99% +0.67%
Total votes 1,367,755 100.0%
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Independent to Democratic

  • Douglas (largest city: Lawrence)
  • Shawnee (largest city: Topeka)
  • Wyandotte (largest city: Kansas City)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

  • Johnson (largest city: Overland Park)
  • Riley (largest city: Manhattan)

By congressional district

Marshall won three of four congressional districts.

District Marshall Bollier Representative
1st 66% 29% Roger Marshall
Tracey Mann
2nd 52% 42% Steve Watkins
Jake LaTurner
3rd 42% 53% Sharice Davids
4th 56% 39% Ron Estes

See also

wikipedia, wiki, encyclopedia, book, library, article, read, free download, Information about 2020 United States Senate election in Kansas, What is 2020 United States Senate election in Kansas? What does 2020 United States Senate election in Kansas mean?