Opinion polling has been commissioned throughout the duration of the 49th New Zealand Parliament and in the leadup to the 2011 election by various organisations. The main four are Television New Zealand, TV3, The New Zealand Herald and Roy Morgan Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.
Party vote and key events
Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.
Graphical summary
The first graph below shows trend lines averaged across all polls for parties that have consistently polled on average above the 5.0% threshold. The second graph shows the parties polling over 1% which do not consistently poll above the 5.0% threshold.
Individual polls
| Poll | Date | National | Labour | Green | ACT | Māori | Prog | United Future | NZ First | Mana | Con |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 election result | 8 Nov 2008 | 44.93 | 33.99 | 6.72 | 3.65 | 2.39 | 0.91 | 0.87 | 4.07 | N/A | |
| 11 Nov 2008 – Phil Goff replaces Helen Clark as leader of Labour Party. 19 Nov 2008 – National Party leader John Key is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand. | |||||||||||
| Roy Morgan Research | 17–30 Nov 2008 | 44.0 | 32.5 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 3.5 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 1–14 Dec 2008 | 47.0 | 31.5 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 3.0 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 2–18 Jan 2009 | 48.0 | 33.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 19 Jan – 1 Feb 2009 | 48.0 | 31.0 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 3.0 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 2–15 Feb 2009 | 48.5 | 32 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 1.5 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton | 14–19 Feb 2009 | 57.0 | 31.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | ||||
| 3 News Reid Research | 18 Feb 2009 | 60.0 | 27.0 | 7.0 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 1.6 | |||
| Roy Morgan Research | 16 Feb – 1 Mar 2009 | 56 | 26 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 0.5 | <0.5 | 2.5 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 2–15 Mar 2009 | 54.5 | 29 | 8 | 2.5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton | 28 Mar – 1 Apr 2009 | 56.0 | 28.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | ||||
| Roy Morgan Research | 23 Mar – 5 Apr 2009 | 50.5 | 28 | 9.5 | 4 | 3.5 | 1 | <0.5 | 2.5 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton | 5 Apr 2009 | 57.0 | 31.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |||||
| Roy Morgan Research | 6–19 Apr 2009 | 50 | 32.5 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 0.5 | <0.5 | 2 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 20 Apr – 3 May 2009 | 55 | 30.5 | 7 | 2 | 2 | <0.5 | 0.5 | 2 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 4–17 May 2009 | 52.0 | 31.5 | 9.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 18–31 May 2009 | 52.0 | 31.0 | 8.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1. | ||
| 28 May 2009 – 2009 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament. 30 May 2009 – Metiria Turei replaces Jeanette Fitzsimons as female co-leader of the Green Party. 13 Jun 2009 – Mount Albert by-election: David Shearer retains the seat for Labour. | |||||||||||
| Roy Morgan Research | 1–14 Jun 2009 | 52.0 | 33.0 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 22 Jun – 5 Jul 2009 | 54 | 31.5 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 6–19 Jul 2009 | 52 | 30 | 10 | 1 | 3.5 | 0.5 | <0.5 | 2 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton | 25–29 Jul 2009 | 56 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 3.1 | |||||
| Roy Morgan Research | 20 Jul – 2 Aug 2009 | 53.5 | 34 | 7 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | <0.5 | 1 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 3–16 Aug 2009 | 53.5 | 32.5 | 8.5 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | <0.5 | 2 | ||
| 21 Aug 2009 – The citizens-initiated corporal punishment referendum is held, with voters responding 87.4% "No" to the question "Should a smack as part of good parental correction be a criminal offence in New Zealand?" | |||||||||||
| Roy Morgan Research | 17–30 Aug 2009 | 56.5 | 29.5 | 8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 31 Aug – 13 Sep 2009 | 51.5 | 33 | 7.5 | 2 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton | 19–24 Sep 2009 | 54 | 33 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| Roy Morgan Research | 21 Sep – 4 Oct 2009 | 57.5 | 28 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1 | <0.5 | 2 | ||
| 3 News Reid Research | 18 Oct 2009 | 59.9 | 27.2 | 6.9 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | ||||
| Roy Morgan Research | 5–18 Oct 2009 | 53 | 30 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 19 Oct – 1 Nov 2009 | 55.5 | 29 | 7.5 | 1 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 2–15 Nov 2009 | 51.5 | 33 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 1 | <0.5 | 2.5 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton | 21–25 Nov 2009 | 53 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| Roy Morgan Research | 16–29 Nov 2009 | 53.5 | 30.5 | 7 | 1.5 | 3.5 | <0.5 | <0.5 | 2.5 | ||
| 26 Nov 2009 – Labour leader Phil Goff makes race-related "nationhood" speech. | |||||||||||
| 3 News Reid Research | 13 Dec 2009 | 55.2 | 30.8 | 7.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 1.5 | |||
| Roy Morgan Research | 30 Nov – 13 Dec 2009 | 54 | 27.5 | 9.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | <0.5 | 4 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 4–17 Jan 2010 | 53 | 30 | 8 | 2 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 18–31 Jan 2010 | 52 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3.5 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll | 29 Jan – 10 Feb 2010 | 56 | 34 | 4.6 | <1 | 2.8 | <1 | <1 | 1.7 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 1–14 Feb 2010 | 52 | 33 | 8 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | <0.5 | 2 | ||
| 3 News Reid Research | 16 Feb 2010 | 56.3 | 29.6 | 7.3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton | 14–17 Feb 2010 | 54 | 34 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Roy Morgan Research | 15–28 Feb 2010 | 53.5 | 31.5 | 8 | 1.5 | 2.5 | <0.5 | 0.5 | 2 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 1–14 Mar 2010 | 51.5 | 33.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 2 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 22 Mar – 4 Apr 2010 | 49 | 33 | 7.5 | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 1 | 3 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton | 10–14 Apr 2010 | 54 | 33 | 5 | 2 | 2 | |||||
| 3 News Reid Research | 25 Apr 2010 | 52.1 | 33.8 | 8.2 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 1.5 | |||
| Roy Morgan Research | 5–18 Apr 2010 | 49.5 | 34 | 7.5 | 1 | 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 3–16 May 2010 | 48.5 | 33.5 | 9 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3 | ||
| 20 May 2010 – 2010 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament. | |||||||||||
| Roy Morgan Research | 17–30 May 2010 | 52.5 | 30 | 9.5 | 1 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton | 30 May 2010 | 49.0 | 33.0 | 7.0 | 1.6 | 3.6 | |||||
| Roy Morgan Research | 31 May – 13 Jun 2010 | 50.5 | 33 | 9.5 | 1 | 3 | <0.5 | 1 | 1.5 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 21 Jun – 4 Jul 2010 | 53 | 29 | 8.5 | 2 | 3 | <0.5 | 0.5 | 3 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 5–18 Jul 2010 | 49 | 31.5 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 4.5 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 19 Jul – 1 Aug 2010 | 51 | 33.5 | 6.5 | 2 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton | 8 Aug 2010 | 49.0 | 35.0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.3 | ||||
| 3 News Reid Research | 8 Aug 2010 | 54.5 | 30.6 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 1.5 | |||
| Roy Morgan Research | 2–15 Aug 2010 | 50 | 33.5 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 0.5 | 3.5 | |||
| 17 Aug 2010 – Chris Carter is removed from the Labour caucus and becomes an independent MP. Labour is reduced to 42 seats but the Opposition remains at 53 seats. | |||||||||||
| Roy Morgan Research | 16–29 Aug 2010 | 49.5 | 32.5 | 8.5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3.5 | |||
| 4 Sep 2010 – A 7.1-magnitude earthquake strikes Canterbury. | |||||||||||
| Roy Morgan Research | 30 Aug – 12 Sep 2010 | 48.5 | 34 | 8 | 2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 4.5 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 20 Sep – 3 Oct 2010 | 49.5 | 36.5 | 8 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | ||||
| One News Colmar Brunton | 26 Sep 2010 | 54 | 32 | 8 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | ||||
| Roy Morgan Research | 4–17 Oct 2010 | 52.5 | 33 | 8.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | |||
| 3 News Reid Research | 11 Oct 2010 | 53.8 | 32.6 | 7.6 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 1.2 | |||
| Roy Morgan Research | 18–31 Oct 2010 | 50.5 | 33 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 1–14 Nov 2010 | 50 | 32.5 | 9 | 1 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 3 | |||
| 20 Nov 2010 – Mana by-election: Kris Faafoi retains the seat for Labour, but with a significantly reduced majority. | |||||||||||
| Roy Morgan Research | 15–28 Nov 2010 | 51 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 29 Nov – 12 Dec 2010 | 48.5 | 35 | 7 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 3 | ||
| 3 News Reid Research | 13 Dec 2010 | 55.5 | 31.2 | 7.3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 1.9 | |||
| One News Colmar Brunton | 19 Dec 2010 | 55 | 33 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 3.1 | ||||
| Herald-DigiPoll | 30 Dec 2010 | 52.4 | 37.2 | 5.3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2.5 | ||||
| Roy Morgan Research | 4–16 Jan 2011 | 55 | 29 | 7 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 4.5 | |||
| 26 Jan 2011 – John Key announces policy of partial privatisation of some state-owned assets. | |||||||||||
| Roy Morgan Research | 17–30 Jan 2011 | 49 | 34.5 | 6.5 | 1 | 3 | 5.5 | ||||
| 2 February 2011 – John Key announces the election will be held on 26 November 2011. | |||||||||||
| Roy Morgan Research | 31 Jan – 13 Feb 2011 | 52.5 | 33.5 | 8.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | |||
| One News Colmar Brunton | 20 Feb 2011 | 51 | 33 | 8 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | ||||
| 3 News Reid Research | 20 Feb 2011 | 54.6 | 30.9 | 8.2 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 3.3 | ||||
| Roy Morgan Research | 14–27 Feb 2011 | 49 | 35 | 8 | 1.5 | 3 | 3 | ||||
| 22 Feb 2011 – A 6.3-magnitude earthquake strikes Canterbury, with 181 casualties. 23 Feb 2011 – Hone Harawira defects from Maori Party to become an independent MP, and later forming the Mana Party. Government majority reduced from 16 to 14 seats; Maori Party reduced to four seats. 5 Mar 2011 – Botany by-election: Jami-Lee Ross retains the seat for National, but with a reduced majority. | |||||||||||
| Roy Morgan Research | 28 Feb – 13 Mar 2011 | 52.5 | 32.5 | 8 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 4 | |||
| Roy Morgan Research | 21 Mar – 3 Apr 2011 | 51 | 31.5 | 8 | 2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 5 | |||
| One News Colmar Brunton | 10 Apr 2011 | 54 | 34 | 6 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2.7 | ||||
| 3 News Reid Research | 17 Apr 2011 | 57.5 | 27.1 | 7.7 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 2.8 | |||
| Roy Morgan Research | 4–17 Apr 2011 | 51 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3 | ||
| 30 Apr 2011 – Don Brash replaces Rodney Hide as leader of the ACT Party. | |||||||||||
| Roy Morgan Research | 18 Apr – 1 May 2011 | 52.5 | 31 | 7.5 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 4.5 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 2–15 May 2011 | 53 | 28 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3 | ||
| 19 May 2011 – 2011 New Zealand budget is presented to Parliament. | |||||||||||
| Herald-DigiPoll | 19–25 May 2011 | 54.4 | 33.7 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 2.7 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton | 29 May 2011 | 52 | 34 | 6 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | |||
| 3 News Reid Research | 29 May 2011 | 53.0 | 32.8 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 16–29 May 2011 | 49 | 36 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | |||
| Roy Morgan Research | 30 May – 12 Jun 2011 | 53 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0.5 | 2.5 | |||
| Roy Morgan Research | 13–26 Jun 2011 | 54 | 30.5 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 3 | 0.5 | 3.5 | |||
| 25 Jun 2011 – Te Tai Tokerau by-election: Hone Harawira is re-elected under the Mana Party. | |||||||||||
| Herald-DigiPoll | 27 Jun 2011 | 51.2 | 36.1 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | |||
| Roy Morgan Research | 27 Jun – 10 Jul 2011 | 49 | 33.5 | 7.5 | 3 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 3 | |||
| 3 News Reid Research | 10 Jul 2011 | 55.1 | 29.9 | 9.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | ||
| 14 Jul 2011 – Labour releases their proposed tax package, including the introduction of a capital gains tax. | |||||||||||
| One News Colmar Brunton | 17 Jul 2011 | 53 | 27 | 10 | 3.1 | 3 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 0.5 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 11–24 Jul 2011 | 52 | 31.5 | 7.5 | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | ||
| Fairfax Media–Research International | 21–25 Jul 2011 | 56 | 29 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 0.2 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll | 30 Jul 2011 | 52.3 | 33.1 | 8.3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | |||
| Roy Morgan Research | 25 Jul – 7 Aug 2011 | 51.5 | 32 | 7 | 2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 4 | 0.5 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton | 21 Aug 2011 | 56 | 30 | 6 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | ||
| 3 News Reid Research | 21 Aug 2011 | 54.0 | 28.8 | 9.3 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll | 19–26 Aug 2011 | 52 | 31.5 | 9.8 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 0.2 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 15 – 28 Aug 2011 | 52 | 29.5 | 9 | 2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 1 | ||
| Fairfax Media–Research International | 25–29 Aug 2011 | 57.1 | 25.7 | 11.0 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 29 Aug – 11 Sep 2011 | 57 | 26 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 1 | ||
| 9 September 2011 – The 2011 Rugby World Cup opens in Auckland, with unexpected overcrowding of the Auckland Waterfront fan zone and transport delays resulting in some people missing the opening ceremony and game. 13 September 2011 – The Government takes control of the Auckland Waterfront fan zone from Auckland Council. | |||||||||||
| Roy Morgan Research | 12 – 25 Sep 2011 | 51 | 30.5 | 11.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.5 | ||
| 30 Sep 2011 – Credit agencies Fitch and Standard & Poor's both downgrade New Zealand's long-term credit rating from AA+ to AA. | |||||||||||
| Fairfax Media–Research International | 28 Sep 2011 | 54 | 28 | 10 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 0.2 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton | 2 Oct 2011 | 56 | 29 | 9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | ||
| 3 News Reid Research | 2 Oct 2011 | 57.4 | 26.6 | 9.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 0. | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 26 Sep – 9 Oct 2011 | 55.5 | 28 | 9.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 0.5 | 2 | 0.5 | ||
| 5 Oct 2011 – MV Rena runs aground on the Astrolabe Reef causing an oil spill in Tauranga, described as New Zealand's worst environmental disaster. | |||||||||||
| Roy Morgan Research | 10–23 Oct 2011 | 53.5 | 29.5 | 9.5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2.5 | 0.5 | ||
| 26 Oct 2011 – Writ Day: The writ of election is issued by the Chief Justice on behalf of the Governor General, instructing the Electoral Commission to conduct the election. Electoral roll closes for printing with 3.01 million eligible voters.[note a] Main campaigning season begins. | |||||||||||
| Herald-DigiPoll | 20–27 Oct 2011 | 53.5 | 30.3 | 9.5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 0.1 | ||
| 3 News Reid Research | 30 Oct 2011 | 52.3 | 30.2 | 9.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | ||
| Fairfax Media–Research International | 27–31 Oct 2011 | 52.6 | 31.3 | 9.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 28 Oct – 2 Nov 2011 | 54.2 | 29.1 | 10.1 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 1.1 | |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 3 Nov 2011 | 56 | 30 | 9 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 0.3 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research | 24 Oct – 6 Nov 2011 | 53 | 26 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4.5 | 1.0 | ||
| Fairfax Media–Research International | 3–7 Nov 2011 | 52.5 | 25.9 | 12.6 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 3–9 Nov 2011 | 49.5 | 28.7 | 12.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 1 | |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 10 Nov 2011 | 54 | 28 | 9 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 0.5 | |
| 3 News Reid Research | 13 Nov 2011 | 53.3 | 29.9 | 10.2 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | ||
| 11 Nov 2011 – A potentially damaging conversation between John Key and political ally John Banks is recorded without their knowledge. | |||||||||||
| Herald-DigiPoll | 10–16 Nov 2011 | 49.9 | 29.1 | 12.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 4.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 17 Nov 2011 | 51 | 26 | 13 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | |
| 3 News Reid Research | 17 Nov 2011 | 50.2 | 27.4 | 13.0 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | |
| Roy Morgan Research | 7 – 18 Nov 2011 | 53 | 24.5 | 13 | 1.5 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1.0 | ||
| Fairfax Media–Research International | 17 – 21 Nov 2011 | 54.0 | 26.0 | 12.0 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 4.0 | 1.1 | |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 17 – 23 Nov 2011 | 50.9 | 28.0 | 11.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 5.2 | 0.3 | 1.3 | |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 24 Nov 2011 | 50 | 28 | 10 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 2.4 | |
| 3 News Reid Research | 24 Nov 2011 | 50.8 | 26.0 | 13.4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 1.8 | |
| Roy Morgan Research [note b] | 22 – 24 Nov 2011 | 49.5 | 23.5 | 14.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 0.5 | 6.5 | 0.5 | ||
| 26 Nov 2011 – Election Day: A total of 3,049,212 voters were registered to vote in the election. A total of 2,257,336 votes were cast, including the 188,730 advance votes, with a turnout of 73.5%. | |||||||||||
| 2011 election result | 26 Nov 2011 | 47.31 | 27.48 | 11.06 | 1.07 | 1.43 | –[note c] | 0.60 | 6.59 | 1.08 | 2.65 |
| Poll | Date | National | Labour | Green | ACT | Māori | Prog | United Future | NZ First | Mana | Con |
- ^[note a] Voters enrolling after this date could still vote in the general election, but were not included on the printed roll and had to cast special declaration votes.
- ^[note b] The two graphs near the top of the page include data up to and including this poll.
- ^[note c] The Progressive Party did not contest the 2011 election.
Preferred prime minister
Individual polls
| Poll | Date | John Key | Helen Clark | Phil Goff | Winston Peters | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colmar Brunton | 14–19 Feb 2009 | 51 | 6 | 2 | |||||||
| Colmar Brunton | 28 Mar – 1 Apr 2009 | 51 | 6 | 1 | |||||||
| TV ONE Colmar Brunton | 5 Apr 2009 | 51 | 9 | 6 | |||||||
| Colmar Brunton | 25–29 Jul 2009 | 54 | 7 | 2 | |||||||
| 3 News-Reid Research | 18 Oct 2009 | 51.6 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 3.0 | ||||||
| ONE News Colmar Brunton | 21–25 Nov 2009 | 54 | 5 | 2 | |||||||
| 26 Nov 2009 – Labour leader Phil Goff makes race-related "nationhood" speech. | |||||||||||
| 3 News-Reid Research | 13 Dec 2009 | 49.9 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 2.1 | ||||||
| Herald Digipoll | 29 Jan – 10 Feb 2010 | 58 | 7 | 6.8 | |||||||
| ONE News Colmar Brunton | 10–14 Apr 2010 | 48 | 8 | ||||||||
| ONE News Colmar Brunton | May 2010 | 46 | 6 | ||||||||
| ONE News Colmar Brunton | 8 Aug 2010 | 45 | 9 | ||||||||
| 3 News-Reid Research | 8 Aug 2010 | 48.7 | 2.3 | 7.4 | 3.7 | ||||||
| ONE News Colmar Brunton | 26 Sep 2010 | 52 | 8 | ||||||||
| One News-Colmar Brunton | 19 Dec 2010 | 49.1 | 6.8 | 4.9 | |||||||
| 3 News-Reid Research | 20 Feb 2011 | 49.1 | 6.8 | 4.9 | |||||||
| ONE News Colmar Brunton | 20 Feb 2011 | 48 | 2 | 7 | 3 | ||||||
| One News-Colmar Brunton | 10 Apr 2011 | 55 | 11 | 3 | |||||||
| 3 News-Reid Research | 17 Apr 2011 | 52.4 | 6.8 | ||||||||
| Herald Digipoll | 27 May 2011 | 67.7 | 11.9 | ||||||||
| One News-Colmar Brunton | 29 May 2011 | 53 | 8 | ||||||||
| 3 News-Reid Research | 29 May 2011 | 48.2 | 7.6 | ||||||||
| One News-Colmar Brunton | 17 Jul 2011 | 54 | 9 | ||||||||
| Herald Digipoll | 30 Jul 2011 | 70.3 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 2.9 | ||||||
| One News-Colmar Brunton | 21 Aug 2011 | 57 | 8 | ||||||||
| Herald Digipoll | 29 Oct 2011 | 70.6 | 13.7 | 3.5 | |||||||
| One News-Colmar Brunton | 3 Nov 2011 | 56 | 12 | ||||||||
| Fairfax Media-Research International | 17–21 Nov 2011 | 51.5 | 12.5 | 3.5 | |||||||
| Poll | Date | John Key | Helen Clark | Phil Goff | Winston Peters | ||||||
Other polls
Epsom electorate vote
| Poll | Date | John Banks | Paul Goldsmith | David Parker | David Hay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 election result | 8 November 2008 | 56.1[a] | 21.8[a] | 13.6[a] | 7.4[a] |
| New Zealand Herald-Key Research | 9 October 2011 | 18.9 | 32.9 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Fairfax Media Research International | 17 November 2011 | 29.1 | 45.5 | 14.6 | 7.7 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 14–17 November 2011 | 30 | 41 | 17 | 11 |
| 2011 general election, final result | 26 November 2011 | 44.10 | 37.80 | 10.45 | 6.01 |
^[a] The candidates in the 2008 general election were Rodney Hide, Richard Worth, Kate Sutton, and Keith Locke respectively.
Voting method referendum
Concern over validity
A new polling company, Horizon, has challenged some of the existing polls' validity as they exclude undecided voters and those who chose not to vote. Horizon claim that this may be up to 30% in some polls. However, Horizon's own polling methods have been criticised for their use of a self-selected internet panel. At the 2008 election only the Green Party gained a proportion of the party vote outside (below) what poll trends would suggest.
See also
- Opinion polling for the 2008 New Zealand general election
- Opinion polling for the 2014 New Zealand general election
- Opinion polling for the next New Zealand general election
- Politics of New Zealand
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