Opinion polling has been commissioned throughout the duration of the 48th New Zealand Parliament and in the leadup to the 2008 election by various organisations, the main four being TVNZ, TV3, The New Zealand Herald and Roy Morgan Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.
Party vote and key events in the leadup to the 2008 election
Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.
Graphical summary
Individual polls
| Poll | Date | Labour | National | NZ First | Māori | Green | ACT | United Future | Prog |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 election result | 17 September 2005 | 41.1 | 39.1 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| Roy Morgan Research | 17 September–2 October 2005 | 36.5 | 41.5 | 4.5 | 3 | 9 | 1.5 | 3 | 1 |
| Roy Morgan Research | 4–16 October 2005 | 39 | 40.5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Roy Morgan Research | 18–31 October 2005 | 37.5 | 40 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 3.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 News TNS | 27 October–2 November 2005 | 44 | 37 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 7 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 20 November 2005 | 40 | 44 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 30 November 2005 | 43.8 | 41.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 11 December 2005 | 37 | 46 | 4 | 2.1 | 7 | |||
| Roy Morgan International | 13–23 January 2006 | 39 | 40.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 |
| Sunday Star-Times/BRC | 16–25 January 2006 | 42 | 43 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | |
| 3 News TNS | 26 January–2 February 2006 | 44 | 38 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 7 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 19 February 2006 | 42 | 45 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | |
| 3 News TNS | 23–29 March 2006 | 43 | 40 | 4.3 | 3 | 6 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 10 April 2006 | 43.4 | 44.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | |
| 3 News TNS | 4–10 May 2006 | 42 | 41 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| 18 May 2006 – 2006 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament. | |||||||||
| One News Colmar Brunton | 22–25 May 2006 | 38 | 47 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 News TNS | 29 June–5 July 2006 | 46 | 39 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 16 July 2006 | 43 | 45 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 | |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 7–10 August 2006 | 43 | 45 | 3 | 2.6 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 31 August 2006 | 38.7 | 46.4 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 3 News TNS | 24–30 August 2006 | 43 | 40 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 7 | 1 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| Roy Morgan Research | 28 August–10 September 2006 | 41 | 38 | 5.5 | 3 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 13 September 2006 – National Party leader Don Brash takes leave to sort out marital problems amidst rumours he had an affair. | |||||||||
| Poll | Date | Labour | National | NZ First | Māori | Green | ACT | United Future | Prog |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 22–24 September 2006 | 38 | 45.7 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 18–21 September 2006 | 38 | 49 | – | 3 | 6 | – | – | – |
| Roy Morgan Research | 16 September–1 October 2006 | 36 | 41.5 | 7 | 2.5 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | – |
| Roy Morgan Research | 2–15 October 2006 | 40 | 40 | 5 | 1.5 | 8.5 | 2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 16–19 October 2006 | 36 | 49 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 6 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| Roy Morgan Research | 16–29 October 2006 | 38.5 | 41 | 3 | 2.5 | 8 | 1.5 | 3 | – |
| 3 News TNS | 26 October–1 November 2006 | 42 | 40 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 7 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| Roy Morgan Research | 30 October–12 November 2006 | 38.5 | 42.5 | 5 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Roy Morgan Research | 13–26 November 2006 | 37.5 | 42.5 | 4.5 | 2 | 8 | 1.5 | 3 | – |
| 27 November 2006 – John Key becomes leader of the National Party. | |||||||||
| Herald-DigiPoll | 14 November–2 December 2006 | 41.7 | 42.8 | 3.4 | 2 | 6.1 | 1 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| Roy Morgan Research | 27 November–12 December 2006 | 37.5 | 44.5 | 4 | 1 | 9.5 | 0.5 | 2 | 0.5 |
| Roy Morgan Research | 3–21 January 2007 | 41 | 41 | 4 | 2 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 3 News TNS | 25 January–1 February 2007 | 44 | 41 | 2.8 | 2 | 8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| Roy Morgan Research | 23 January–5 February 2007 | 39.5 | 41.5 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| 13 February 2007 – Taito Phillip Field is expelled from the Labour Party caucus after saying he would stand for election at the 2008 election, either with Labour or as an independent. | |||||||||
| Poll | Date | Labour | National | NZ First | Māori | Green | ACT | United Future | Prog |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 12–15 February 2007 | 39 | 46 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Roy Morgan Research | 6–18 February 2007 | 36 | 48.5 | 3 | 1.5 | 8.5 | 1 | 1.5 | – |
| Roy Morgan Research | 19 February–4 March 2007 | 36 | 45 | 2 | 3.5 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Roy Morgan Research | 5–18 March 2007 | 37.5 | 45 | 4 | 3.5 | 7.5 | 1 | 1.5 | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 17–22 March 2007 | 37 | 46 | 2 | 3.4 | 7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 News TNS | 22–28 March 2007 | 44 | 42 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| Roy Morgan Research | 19 March–2 April 2007 | 35.5 | 46 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 9.5 | 1 | 1 | – |
| Roy Morgan Research | 3–16 April 2007 | 33.5 | 45.5 | 6 | 2 | 8.5 | 1 | 2 | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 14–19 April 2007 | 39 | 49 | 2 | 1.7 | 6 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Roy Morgan Research | 23 April–6 May 2007 | 36 | 49.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 6 | 0.5 | 1.5 | – |
| 3 News TNS | 3–9 May 2007 | 36 | 48 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 8 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 16 May 2007 – Parliament passes the Crimes (Substituted Section 59) Amendment Act 2007. | |||||||||
| 17 May 2007 – 2007 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament. | |||||||||
| Roy Morgan Research | 7–20 May 2007 | 32 | 49 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | – |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 18–24 May 2007 | 33.6 | 50.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 6.1 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 19–24 May 2007 | 31 | 56 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 6 | 0.4 | 1 | 0.2 |
| Roy Morgan Research | 21 May–3 June 2007 | 33.5 | 50.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 6.5 | 0.5 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 7 June 2007 – The Reserve Bank intervenes in the currency market by selling New Zealand Dollars in an attempt halt the increase in value of the currency. | |||||||||
| Poll | Date | Labour | National | NZ First | Māori | Green | ACT | United Future | Prog |
| Roy Morgan Research | 4–17 June 2007 | 36 | 49.5 | 3 | 1.5 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 4–22 June 2007 | 40.1 | 48.2 | 3 | 2.4 | 4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | – |
| Roy Morgan Research | 18 June–1 July 2007 | 34 | 48.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 8.5 | 1 | 1.5 | 1 |
| 1 July 2007 – Introduction of several government policies, including 20 hours funded childcare for 3 and 4-year olds and the Kiwisaver retirement savings scheme. | |||||||||
| One News Colmar Brunton | 30 June–5 July 2007 | 36 | 52 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 3 News TNS | 5–11 July 2007 | 36 | 48 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | – |
| UMR Research | c. 15 July 2007 | 36 | 50 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 7.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | – |
| Roy Morgan Research | 2–15 July 2007 | 36 | 47 | 5 | 2 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 5–19 July 2007 | 42 | 48.5 | 2 | 1.8 | 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | – |
| Roy Morgan Research | 16–29 July 2007 | 35 | 49 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 4–9 August 2007 | 36 | 53 | 2.6 | 1 | 5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| UMR Research | c. 15 August 2007 | 35 | 49 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 7.7 | 0.6 | 1.1 | – |
| Roy Morgan Research | 30 July–12 August 2007 | 31 | 50.5 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.5 | 2 | 0.5 |
| Roy Morgan Research | 20 August–2 September 2007 | 34 | 48 | 2.5 | 3 | 9.5 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 News TNS | 30 August–5 September 2007 | 37 | 47 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 7 | 1.5 | 0.1 | – |
| Fairfax Media–Nielsen | 15 September 2007 | 36 | 50 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 8–13 September 2007 | 39 | 49 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Roy Morgan Research | 3–16 September 2007 | 35 | 49 | 2.5 | 3 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 1 | – |
| UMR Research | 13–19 September 2007 | 34 | 51 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 6.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | – |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 29 September 2007 | 39.6 | 44.8 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 7.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Roy Morgan Research | 17–30 September 2007 | 33 | 48.5 | 3 | 2.5 | 9.5 | 1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 6–11 October 2007 | 37 | 49 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Roy Morgan Research | 1–14 October 2007 | 39 | 45.5 | 3 | 2 | 7.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | – |
| UMR Research | 11–15 October 2007 | 38 | 49 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 6.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | – |
| 15 October 2007 – Operation 8 police raids on activists. | |||||||||
| Poll | Date | Labour | National | NZ First | Māori | Green | ACT | United Future | Prog |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 8–28 October 2007 | 38.8 | 51.2 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 5.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | – |
| Roy Morgan Research | 15–28 October 2007 | 40.5 | 45 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 6.5 | 1 | 1.5 | – |
| Roy Morgan Research | 29 October–11 November 2007 | 34 | 48 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 1 | 1 | – |
| 12 November 2007 – The New Zealand Herald dedicates its front page to criticism of the Electoral Finance Bill under headline "Democracy under attack". | |||||||||
| Herald-DigiPoll | 8–26 November 2007 | 38.1 | 51.3 | 2.1 | 3 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Fairfax Media–Nielsen | 17 November 2007 | 40 | 45 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Roy Morgan Research | 12–25 November 2007 | 35 | 48 | 5 | 2.5 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 News TNS | 8–13 December 2007 | 36 | 51 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 8–13 December 2007 | 35 | 54 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Roy Morgan Research | 26 November–9 December 2007 | 34.5 | 47.5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Roy Morgan Research | 3–20 January 2008 | 33.5 | 52 | 3.5 | 2 | 6.5 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 10–24 January 2008 | 38.7 | 47.5 | 3 | 1 | 9.1 | 0.7 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 News TNS | 23–30 January 2008 | 35 | 49 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | – |
| 29 January, 30 January 2008 – John Key and Helen Clark open their election year campaigns with speeches focusing on youth issues. | |||||||||
| Poll | Date | Labour | National | NZ First | Māori | Green | ACT | United Future | Prog |
| Roy Morgan Research | 21 January–3 February 2008 | 36.5 | 45.5 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 9–14 February 2008 | 34 | 53 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| Roy Morgan Research | 4–17 February 2008 | 32.5 | 51.5 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Fairfax Media–Nielsen | 13–19 February 2008 | 32 | 55 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 News TNS | 19–26 February 2008 | 35 | 51 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 11–28 February 2008 | 36.5 | 54.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 4.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Roy Morgan Research | 18 February–2 March 2008 | 35 | 49.5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 8–13 March 2008 | 35 | 50 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Roy Morgan Research | 3–16 March 2008 | 34 | 51 | 3 | 2 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 6–27 March 2008 | 39.3 | 49.9 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0 | – |
| Roy Morgan Research | 24 March–6 April 2008 | 34.5 | 47 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 News TNS | 10–16 April 2008 | 38 | 48 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 12–17 April 2008 | 35 | 54 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Roy Morgan Research | 7–20 April 2008 | 35.5 | 50 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | – |
| Fairfax Media–Nielsen | 9–22 April 2008 | 34 | 52 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 5–26 April 2008 | 37.2 | 52.1 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Poll | Date | Labour | National | NZ First | Māori | Green | ACT | United Future | Prog |
| Roy Morgan Research | 21 April–4 May 2008 | 35.5 | 49.5 | 4.5 | 2 | 6.5 | 1 | 1 | – |
| Fairfax Media–Nielsen | 7–13 May 2008 | 29 | 56 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 May 2008 – 2008 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament. | |||||||||
| Roy Morgan Research | 5–18 May 2008 | 35 | 49 | 4 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 1 | .5 | – |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 5–28 May 2008 | 36.2 | 51.5 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 6.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0 |
| 3 News TNS | 23–29 May 2008 | 35 | 50 | 3.9 | 2 | 5.8 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 24–29 May 2008 | 29 | 55 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Roy Morgan Research | 19 May–1 June 2008 | 32 | 50.5 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.5 | 1 | – |
| Roy Morgan Research | 2–15 June 2008 | 31.5 | 52.5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0.5 | – |
| Fairfax Media–Nielsen | 11–17 June 2008 | 30 | 54 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 14–19 June 2008 | 29 | 55 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 6–25 June 2008 | 32.4 | 54.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 5.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| Roy Morgan Research | 16–29 June 2008 | 30.5 | 51.5 | 4 | 2.5 | 8 | 2 | 1 | – |
| Poll | Date | Labour | National | NZ First | Māori | Green | ACT | United Future | Prog |
| Roy Morgan Research | 30 June–13 July 2008 | 31 | 52 | 6.5 | 1 | 7.5 | 0.5 | 1 | – |
| Fairfax Media–Nielsen | 9–15 July 2008 | 35 | 51 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 12–17 July 2008 | 35 | 52 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0 |
| 3 News TNS | Released 18 July 2008 | 35 | 48 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Herald-DigiPoll | Released 29 July 2008 | 30.8 | 55.4 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 0.2 | 0.9 | – |
| Roy Morgan Research | 14–27 July 2008 | 32.5 | 47.5 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 2.5 | 0.5 | – |
| Roy Morgan Research | 28 July–10 August 2008 | 34 | 48 | 6.5 | 2 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 0 | – |
| Fairfax Media–Nielsen | 6–12 August 2008 | 35 | 54 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 9–14 August 2008 | 37 | 51 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 3 News TNS | 14–20 August 2008 | 37 | 48 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Roy Morgan Research | 18–31 August 2008 | 38 | 44.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 8 | 1.5 | 1 | – |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 3–25 August 2008 | 36.3 | 50 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0 | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 6–11 September 2008 | 35 | 53 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 September 2008 – Parliament passes a law creating the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme. | |||||||||
| 12 September 2008 – Helen Clark announces the election will be held 8 November 2008. | |||||||||
| Poll | Date | Labour | National | NZ First | Māori | Green | ACT | United Future | Prog |
| Roy Morgan Research | 1–14 September 2008 | 36.5 | 47.5 | 5 | 1.5 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | – |
| Fairfax Media–Nielsen | 10–16 September 2008 | 34 | 52 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1 | – | – |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 15–24 September 2008 | 35.7 | 51.4 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 News TNS | 18–24 September 2008 | 36 | 49 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 27 September–2 October 2008 | 33 | 52 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| Roy Morgan Research | 22 September –5 October 2008 | 37.5 | 40.5 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 3.5 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 News TNS | Released 10 October 2008 | 39 | 45 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 6.7 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 4–9 October 2008 | 33 | 51 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 8 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Fairfax Media–Nielsen | 8–14 October 2008 | 33 | 51 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 11–16 October 2008 | 36 | 50 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 News TNS | Released 23 October 2008 | 37.4 | 45.1 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 8.8 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Poll | Date | Labour | National | NZ First | Māori | Green | ACT | United Future | Prog |
| Roy Morgan Research | 6–19 October 2008 | 32 | 43 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 11.5 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 15–22 October 2008 | 37.0 | 50.4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 18–23 October 2008 | 35.0 | 47.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 3 News TNS | Released 6 November 2008 | 33.1 | 46.0 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 1–5 November 2008 | 35.0 | 47.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 9.0 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 29 October–5 November 2008 | 36.4 | 47.9 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| Fairfax Media–Nielsen | Released 7 November 2008 | 31 | 49 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 1 | – |
| Roy Morgan Research | 20 October–2 November 2008 | 34.5 | 42 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 10 | 4 | 1 | – |
| 2008 election result | 8 November 2008 | 33.99 | 44.93 | 4.07 | 2.39 | 6.72 | 3.65 | 0.87 | 0.91 |
Preferred Prime Minister
Graphical summary
Individual polls
| Poll | Date | Helen Clark | Don Brash | John Key | Winston Peters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TV3–TNS | 27 October – 2 November 2005 | 43 | 19 | – | 8 |
| TV3–TNS | 26 January – 2 February 2006 | 39 | 16 | – | 7 |
| TV3–TNS | 23–29 March 2006 | 38 | 15 | – | 6 |
| TV3–TNS | 4–10 May 2006 | 34 | 18 | – | 6 |
| TV3–TNS | 29 June – 5 July 2006 | 38 | 13 | 0 | 6 |
| TV3–TNS | 24–30 August 2006 | 38 | 17 | 0 | 5 |
| Herald–DigiPoll | 31 August 2006 | 52.4 | 22.4 | 8.5 | 5 |
| Herald–DigiPoll | 22–24 September 2006 | 50.8 | 25.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 |
| TV3–TNS | 26 October–1 November 2006 | 35 | 15 | – | – |
| Herald–DigiPoll | 14 November–2 December 2006 | 54.2 | 3.9 | 28.5 | – |
| TV3–TNS | 25 January–1 February 2007 | 35 | 1 | 24 | 5 |
| One News–Colmar Brunton | 12–15 February 2007 | 32 | – | 27 | 3 |
| One News–Colmar Brunton | 17–22 March 2007 | 32 | – | 29 | 4 |
| TV3–TNS | 22–28 March 2007 | 37 | 1 | 28 | 4 |
| One News–Colmar Brunton | 14–19 April 2007 | 37 | 1 | 29 | 3 |
| TV3–TNS | 3–9 May 2007 | 30 | 1 | 32 | 5 |
| Herald–DigiPoll | 18–24 May 2007 | 42.1 | – | 45.5 | 5.4 |
| One News–Colmar Brunton | 19–24 May 2007 | 27 | 0.3 | 38 | 2 |
| Poll | Date | Helen Clark | Don Brash | John Key | Winston Peters |
| One News–Colmar Brunton | 30 June–5 July 2007 | 29 | 0.5 | 35 | 2 |
| TV3–TNS | 5–11 July 2007 | 31 | 1 | 31 | 4 |
| Herald–DigiPoll | 5–19 July 2007 | 48.7 | – | 37.9 | 7 |
| One News–Colmar Brunton | 4–9 August 2007 | 30 | 0.7 | 33 | 4 |
| TV3–TNS | 30 August – 5 September 2007 | 28 | 1 | 32 | 6 |
| Fairfax Media Poll | 15 September 2007 | 34 | – | 41 | 3 |
| One News–Colmar Brunton | 8–13 September 2007 | 33 | 0.3 | 31 | 4 |
| Herald–DigiPoll | 29 September 2007 | 46.8 | – | 42.2 | – |
| One News–Colmar Brunton | 6–11 October 2007 | 33 | 0.2 | 33 | 3 |
| Herald–DigiPoll | 8–28 October 2007 | 50.8 | – | 37.3 | 5 |
| Fairfax Media Poll | 17 November 2007 | 38 | – | 36 | – |
| Herald–DigiPoll | 8–26 November 2007 | 48.7 | – | 36.7 | 8.1 |
| TV3–TNS | 5–12 December 2007 | 28 | – | 33 | 6 |
| One News–Colmar Brunton | 8–13 December 2007 | 30 | 0.2 | 35 | 2 |
| Herald–DigiPoll | 10–24 January 2008 | 49.7 | – | 39.2 | 3.8 |
| TV3–TNS | 23–30 January 2008 | 29 | – | 33 | 6 |
| One News–Colmar Brunton | 9–14 February 2008 | 27 | 0.4 | 36 | 4 |
| Fairfax Media–Nielsen | 13–19 February 2008 | 29 | – | 44 | – |
| TV3–TNS | 19–26 February 2008 | 28 | – | 35 | 5 |
| Herald–DigiPoll | 11–28 February 2008 | 44.3 | 0.2 | 46.3 | 3.3 |
| One News–Colmar Brunton | 8–13 March 2008 | 31 | – | 36 | 5 |
| Herald–DigiPoll | 6–27 March 2008 | 45.6 | – | 45.9 | 3.9 |
| Poll | Date | Helen Clark | Don Brash | John Key | Winston Peters |
| TV3–TNS | 10–16 April 2008 | 32 | – | 29 | 6 |
| One News–Colmar Brunton | 12–17 April 2008 | 29 | – | 35 | 4 |
| Fairfax Media–Nielsen | 9–22 April 2008 | 33 | – | 42 | – |
| Herald–DigiPoll | 5–26 April 2008 | 45.3 | – | 48 | – |
| Fairfax Media–Nielsen | 7–13 May 2008 | 28 | – | 45 | 5 |
| Herald–DigiPoll | 5–28 May 2008 | 42.3 | – | 44.6 | 6.7 |
| TV3–TNS | 23–29 May 2008 | 29 | – | 35 | 6 |
| One News–Colmar Brunton | 24–29 May 2008 | 28 | – | 36 | 6 |
| Fairfax Media–Nielsen | 11–17 June 2008 | 30 | – | 43 | 2 |
| One News–Colmar Brunton | 14–19 June 2008 | 27 | 0.2 | 38 | 4 |
| Fairfax Media–Nielsen | 9–15 July 2008 | 32 | – | 39 | 3 |
| One News–Colmar Brunton | 12–17 July 2008 | 31 | 0.3 | 38 | 4 |
| TV3–TNS | Released 18 July 2008 | 28 | – | 32 | 6 |
| Herald–DigiPoll | Released 29 July 2008 | 44 | – | 47.1 | 4.9 |
| Fairfax Media–Nielsen | 6–12 August 2008 | 31 | – | 43 | 2 |
| One News–Colmar Brunton | 9–14 August 2008 | 33 | – | 36 | 3 |
| TV3–TNS | 14–20 August 2008 | 31 | – | 34 | 3 |
| Herald–DigiPoll | 3–25 August 2008 | 45 | – | 46.6 | 5.6 |
| Poll | Date | Helen Clark | Don Brash | John Key | Winston Peters |
| One News-Colmar Brunton | 6–11 September 2008 | 31 | 0.1 | 40 | 3 |
| Fairfax Media–Nielsen | 10–16 September 2008 | 30 | – | 41 | 2 |
| Herald–DigiPoll | 15–24 September 2008 | 43.1 | – | 45.5 | 4 |
| TV3–TNS | Released 28 September 2008 | 32 | – | 34 | – |
| One News-Colmar Brunton | 27 September–2 October 2008 | 31 | – | 41 | 3 |
| TV3–TNS | Released 10 October 2008 | 31.6 | – | 31 | – |
| One News-Colmar Brunton | 4–9 October 2008 | 31 | – | 39 | 2 |
| Fairfax Media–Nielsen | 8–14 October 2008 | 35 | – | 43 | – |
| One News-Colmar Brunton | 11–16 October 2008 | 34 | 0.1 | 40 | 2 |
| TV3–TNS | Released 23 October 2008 | 36.3 | – | 36.3 | – |
| Herald–DigiPoll | 15–22 October 2008 | 45.4 | – | 44.8 | 4.0 |
| One News-Colmar Brunton | 18–23 October 2008 | 37 | - | 38 | 3 |
| One News-Colmar Brunton | 1–5 November 2008 | 36 | – | 40 | 1 |
See also
- Opinion polling for the 2005 New Zealand general election
- Opinion polling for the 2011 New Zealand general election
- Candidates in the 2008 New Zealand general election by electorate
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